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Old 03-26-2015, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,479 posts, read 7,711,641 times
Reputation: 7295

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
I really don't care. D.C. is growing. I don't really care how much, it's just growing. D.C. is getting better every day. Stay in Philly and worry about your own city.
I think he's pretty fair though. He's one of the best posters on this forum and one of the biggest contributors to it.
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Old 03-26-2015, 11:24 AM
 
9,585 posts, read 10,917,416 times
Reputation: 2114
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
its more I continue to see you throw out numbers that just don't make sense
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Hey KidPhilly, it's always great to be able to look back to 2011 and see how good our prediction's were.

Time Machine back to 2011:

Read the first three pages:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/city-vs-city/1458660-if-cities-were-stocks.html


KidPhilly Year 2011 prediction for DC:

Increased unemployment (8=11%) and slowed population growth (12%) in the 24-36 horsizon with a 3-7 year bottom for DC

Again MD; please explain the organic growth of DC recently outside of defict spend relative to the 98.5% of the rest of America and why DC is somehow immune when it CLEARLY has not been but lagged econimic conditions in the US for more than 200 years (again I hope you are not basing this on the discovery channel, marriott, or govt funded healthcare facilities)

As an aside I worked on the growth and development plan for Titan largely based on war efforts (else the plan was 70% less on growth) by the way this piggybacked on Grummen, GD, and SAIC for the EXACT same reason as a support comapny

But again unless you can tell me you understand what happened in the 70s and 80s dont bother

Again why do you think DC is differnet outside of EXUBERANT Gov't spend? will you go on record with that?????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????


O yeah

And based on this below, you just lost all your money. How much did you bet?


KidPhilly Year 2011 prediction for DC:

"12 months is difficult but I would wager on 24-36 months"
Yeah......you're normally wrong....
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Old 03-26-2015, 11:39 AM
 
Location: The City
21,945 posts, read 30,803,938 times
Reputation: 7489
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
I really don't care. D.C. is growing. I don't really care how much, it's just growing. D.C. is getting better every day. Stay in Philly and worry about your own city.
Philly has more issues than DC. I am actually pretty hard on Philly among local discussion (contrary to what I post on cvc) though do see many aspects that are positive, many also negative

I also agree that DC has made great strides and continues to, I just don't believe the current growth can be sustained - somehow you perceive this as being negative on DC, I call it far less bullish than you

again this started with a growth rate you aseted in a 3 sq mile area - then expanded etc. I don't believe the estimates you posted and provided rationale why - they seem irrationally exuberant to me

BTW it looks like the growth rates I suggested in your post from 2011 seems accurate - the unemployment rate is not though job creation did slow significantly as well as govt growth. Outside of the Unemployment rate most was fairly accurate actually
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Old 03-26-2015, 11:56 AM
 
9,585 posts, read 10,917,416 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Philly has more issues than DC. I am actually pretty hard on Philly among local discussion (contrary to what I post on cvc) though do see many aspects that are positive, many also negative

I also agree that DC has made great strides and continues to, I just don't believe the current growth can be sustained - somehow you perceive this as being negative on DC, I call it far less bullish than you

again this started with a growth rate you aseted in a 3 sq mile area - then expanded etc. I don't believe the estimates you posted and provided rationale why - they seem irrationally exuberant to me

BTW it looks like the growth rates I suggested in your post from 2011 seems accurate - the unemployment rate is not though job creation did slow significantly as well as govt growth. Outside of the Unemployment rate most was fairly accurate actually
Huh? D.C. proper has not slowed that much? What are you talking about? And D.C. proper is suppose to bottom out this year I guess. Will we lose population this year? Maybe just add 500 people?

Why would you praise Philly in public but be honest about it in private with your local Philly people? Smh.....
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Old 03-26-2015, 12:07 PM
 
Location: The City
21,945 posts, read 30,803,938 times
Reputation: 7489
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Huh? D.C. proper has not slowed that much? What are you talking about?

Why would you praise Philly in public but be honest about it in private with your local Philly people? Smh.....
My rate was an estimate for the metro of about 12% for the decade - based on the Census release today showing growth of 1.12% for MSA y on y - that seems fairly accurate to me

Praise? Both are public actually. I think am mostly fair - on here maybe defend more than praise but on the whole think am mostly fair. In more local discussions I believe am more critical of exuberance, also critical locally of naysayers and to me a stubborn local theme of not thinking big enough.
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:06 PM
 
9,585 posts, read 10,917,416 times
Reputation: 2114
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
My rate was an estimate for the metro of about 12% for the decade - based on the Census release today showing growth of 1.12% for MSA y on y - that seems fairly accurate to me

Praise? Both are public actually. I think am mostly fair - on here maybe defend more than praise but on the whole think am mostly fair. In more local discussions I believe am more critical of exuberance, also critical locally of naysayers and to me a stubborn local theme of not thinking big enough.
Who cares about the metro area? This is about the city. Why would I care about how many people move into new single family homes in Loudon county?
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:15 PM
 
Location: Center City, Philadelphia
4,559 posts, read 2,519,979 times
Reputation: 2857
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Who cares about the metro area? This is about the city. Why would I care about how many people move into new single family homes in Loudon county?
Do you live in the city? Just curious.
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:20 PM
 
9,585 posts, read 10,917,416 times
Reputation: 2114
Quote:
Originally Posted by thedirtypirate View Post
Do you live in the city? Just curious.
Yes, I do.
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:23 PM
 
6,795 posts, read 6,589,949 times
Reputation: 5411
DC area probably is being over-supplied to be honest and job growth just isn't that strong in D.C. I always say that the biggest contributing factor one should look at for rent growth and metro population growth is to look at recent annual job growth percentage rates. Is it above the nation's average? Below? at the average? Job growth almost always governs people's willingness to live in your city.

I just think a lot of the booms many cities have been experiencing over the last 2 years are going to cool down in the next year and that includes D.C. Cities are starting to over build, especially since they don't have the growth and jobs to accompany so much.

Cities like Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, SF Bay Area, Austin, Seattle all have impressive annual job percentage growth and with that, we see high metropolitan area growth which in turn means more construction starts.
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Center City, Philadelphia
4,559 posts, read 2,519,979 times
Reputation: 2857
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Yes, I do.
Nice. Sorry for questioning, just was curious
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