Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Interesting how Miami was the largest metro in the South in 1990 and DFW just breezed by it by 2000. But I think it's when you add Palm Beach County with Broward and Dade. At one point, Palm Beach was not counted as Miami MSA. Also crazy to see how much Houston exploded in the last decade.
Interesting how Miami was the largest metro in the South in 1990 and DFW just breezed by it by 2000. But I think it's when you add Palm Beach County with Broward and Dade. At one point, Palm Beach was not counted as Miami MSA. Also crazy to see how much Houston exploded in the last decade.
Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA and UA maxed out and capped out on large swaths of available land to develop by the 2000 census. Since then it has been non-stop infill to foster population growth because there is no more new land on the horizons to develop anymore. Everywhere that could be developed on, already has been, for the most part.
So now development comes from parking lots and vacant lots or large swaths of industrialized parcels being redeveloped, repurposed, or revitalized to accommodate housing. The region's future, as it has been the last 17 years, is increasingly vertical. Densification and infill being the key mechanisms. This is why Miami since 2000 hasn't really grown by 1 million a decade the way it did from 1990 to 2000 because the developable land just isn't there. Instead the region will likely do between 500,000 to 800,000 a decade for the coming decades, since that's all the region can manage going forward. The region has maxed out. It's all verticality, infill, and densification now of the few areas with holes in already existing developed areas. This is why Miami/Fort Lauderdale UA was the only one to increase its population density per square mile by 1,000 from 2000 to 2010 and not add any expanding physical land area from 2000 to 2010. No more land, no more horizontal expansion, everything has to go up and vertical now. Scarcity of physical land area.
Miami will continue to add population growth at a healthy clip, enough to keep it in the Top 10 MSAs and CSAs for pretty much the duration of all of our lifetimes (although no one knows for certain what tomorrow brings) but it likely doesn't have the space to work with to get into the Top 5 in our lifetimes as either an MSA or CSA. I actually think 6th, if Miami/Fort Lauderdale can retain that spot, is likely its ceiling but it wont ever be lower than 9th or 10th. I would say that 10th would be Miami's floor at a worst case scenario. I don't see a Phoenix or Seattle surpassing it in population to bump it out of the Top 10 MSAs or CSAs, for that matter.
I originally voted for Atlanta, but changed my mind once I saw the estimates for this year. I'll probably need actual census numbers in 2020 before determining if Atlanta has a chance at the 6th spot by 2025-2030. Unlikely though.
Yeah it's going to be Miami or DC. Atlanta is too far back. Miami and DC will have to grow slower than Philly and Atlanta has to have Houston and Dallas type growth for the next three years for Atlanta to catch those two. I initially said Miami but DC looks like it's barely going to win out.
Yeah it's going to be Miami or DC. Atlanta is too far back. Miami and DC will have to grow slower than Philly and Atlanta has to have Houston and Dallas type growth for the next three years for Atlanta to catch those two. I initially said Miami but DC looks like it's barely going to win out.
Atlanta isn't too far back. 2030 is 13 years from now and anything could happen but what's crazy is the fact that Philly will be 9th...wow
You know what. I was only looking at 2020 census and plain forgot that this is predicted for 2025-2030. My mistake.
I agree there. The only way Atlanta passes DC or Miami would be if there's an overestimate in DC or Miami. Atlanta may pick up around 100,000 to 110,000 annually over the next few years but it will not be enough before 2020.
One possibility is DFW for the 2030 census if the current definitions of MSA have SF and the DC areas meld more of their CSA into the MSA.
I wouldn't be too surprised if the SF metro by then merges with SJ metro and that DC at the very least plucks Howard County, possibly Anne Arundel, or possibly Baltimore's MSA by current standards.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 04-11-2017 at 06:18 PM..
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,560,868 times
Reputation: 5785
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
One possibility is DFW for the 2030 census if the current definitions of MSA have SF and the DC areas meld more of their CSA into the MSA.
I wouldn't be too surprised if the SF metro by then merges with SJ metro and that DC at the very least plucks Howard County, possibly Anne Arundel, or possibly Baltimore's MSA by current standards.
DC has a lot more population around it's MSA that it can poach, much more than Atlanta or Miami. I think Atlanta will grow the fastest out of these three, but not enough to pass either even by 2030.
Even outside of adding Howard or Arundel counties, there are about 700,000 people living in the remainder of DC-Baltimore CSA not a part of either MSA. Most of those counties are closer to DC and could easily bump DC higher. St. Mary's County MD is small by our standards and still would add 100,000 plus people. If either Howard 300k or Arundel 500k got added there's no chance the others catch up in 20 years.
DC has a lot more population around it's MSA that it can poach, much more than Atlanta or Miami. I think Atlanta will grow the fastest out of these three, but not enough to pass either even by 2030.
Even outside of adding Howard or Arundel counties, there are about 700,000 people living in the remainder of DC-Baltimore CSA not a part of either MSA. Most of those counties are closer to DC and could easily bump DC higher. St. Mary's County MD is small by our standards and still would add 100,000 plus people. If either Howard 300k or Arundel 500k got added there's no chance the others catch up in 20 years.
Yes, and SF has a decent chance of agglomerating with San Jose's metro and that's why I think DFW is a potential choice for the 2030 official census as both DC and the Bay Area push DFW out.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
