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View Poll Results: By 2025-2030, your selection of where you think will be the 6th largest in the United States?
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 26 16.56%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 80 50.96%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 41 26.11%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 10 6.37%
Voters: 157. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-27-2016, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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The general sense that I'm getting is that the Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA will be moving up to 7th next year, if not then it will just barely miss doing that. It just joined the 6 million club in 2015, Atlanta will be at that point soon as well (joining the 6 million group of American cities).

In the interim period, the 6th spot will come down to Washington DC MSA (the National Capital Region) versus the Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA (Southeast Florida), and a few years later down the line, Atlanta will be in the mix as well. The former scenario will begin taking shape after the 2016 census estimates, the latter scenario directly after the 2020 census.

All 4 cities in question posted gains and have crossed or are in the process of crossing 6 million. So good top down for all.
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Old 04-07-2017, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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The collective group of these four is starting to constrict into the same general range. Which makes it really interesting when you think about which of the four will sit in 6th come 2020 and then subsequently in 2030. Three of them are nearly identical in growth percentage, overall, and it doesn't help that the same advantage also extends to raw numerical growth for the same three as well.

2016 Census Estimates and Rank (with 2010 census results to its right and the growth percentage to the right of that):

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Old 04-07-2017, 08:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric View Post
The collective group of these four is starting to constrict into the same general range. Which makes it really interesting when you think about which of the four will sit in 6th come 2020 and then subsequently in 2030. Three of them are nearly identical in growth percentage, overall, and it doesn't help that the same advantage also extends to raw numerical growth for the same three as well.

2016 Census Estimates and Rank (with 2010 census results to its right and the growth percentage to the right of that):
Yep. Should be interesting.

I think the DC area will experience a slow down. Because of how expensive it's gotten here, I think it's pushing people away due to literally being priced out.

I think Florida will continue to grow. Atlanta, I'm not really sure about, could go either way.
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Old 04-07-2017, 10:41 PM
 
Location: Florida
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric View Post
The collective group of these four is starting to constrict into the same general range. Which makes it really interesting when you think about which of the four will sit in 6th come 2020 and then subsequently in 2030. Three of them are nearly identical in growth percentage, overall, and it doesn't help that the same advantage also extends to raw numerical growth for the same three as well.

2016 Census Estimates and Rank (with 2010 census results to its right and the growth percentage to the right of that):
Another factor to consider is that out of the 4 MSA's listed Miami is the only one that is geographically constrained which could eventually limit its population growth.
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Old 04-08-2017, 06:17 AM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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By 2020, and if current projections are somewhat accurate, it's likely to be:
6. D.C.
7. Miami
8. Atlanta
9. Philly

D.C.'s (+495,745), Miami's (+501,752) and Atlanta's (+502,972) absolute growth numbers since 2010 are just way too close to each other for them to change order relative to each other and with the current gaps. By 2020, the gap between D.C. and Miami might shrink to 50,000 and the gap between Miami and Atlanta might shrink as well. But there's a lot of ground to cover for Atlanta since it's more than 275,000 behind Miami.
A small stumble on D.C.'s part could open the door for Miami to ascend to 6th but it would take an epic turn of events for Atlanta to reach that milestone by the next Census.
By 2025, it's easier to imagine Miami taking 6th but it's still not a certainty. At some point, South Florida will be chocked for available land, something that neither D.C. nor Atlanta face. It will be interesting to see how all the anti-immigrant rhetoric turns into policy that affects growth in cities that rely on immigration. If it gets significantly choked, it could be the window of opportunity for Atlanta to ascend more quickly up the rankings as growth could significantly slow in Miami and D.C.
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Old 04-08-2017, 06:37 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
By 2020, and if current projections are somewhat accurate, it's likely to be:
6. D.C.
7. Miami
8. Atlanta
9. Philly

D.C.'s (+495,745), Miami's (+501,752) and Atlanta's (+502,972) absolute growth numbers since 2010 are just way too close to each other for them to change order relative to each other and with the current gaps. By 2020, the gap between D.C. and Miami might shrink to 50,000 and the gap between Miami and Atlanta might shrink as well. But there's a lot of ground to cover for Atlanta since it's more than 275,000 behind Miami.
A small stumble on D.C.'s part could open the door for Miami to ascend to 6th but it would take an epic turn of events for Atlanta to reach that milestone by the next Census.
Unless DC and Baltimore MSA's combine to form a 10M+ metro by 2020.
It's currently at 9,665,892.
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Old 04-08-2017, 07:27 AM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DC4ever View Post
Unless DC and Baltimore MSA's combine to form a 10M+ metro by 2020.
It's currently at 9,665,892.
I don't think the two MSA's will combine by 2020, even if the CSA reaches 10 million by then. It will take a while longer for that.

However, DC's MSA even if a slow down occurs has the easiest chance of poaching a county of significant population which could further separate it's MSA count. Either Howard or Anne Arundel could come into the fold which are 300k and 500k respectively. Then if St Mary's County were added another 100k (not a part of either MSA) could also find its way in DC's MSA the more people get priced out of the core.

Montgomery county and Howard are already looking at a bus connector expansion to increase transit options between the two.
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Old 04-08-2017, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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This is the history of the 6th spot by MSA since 1900.

1900:
01. New York: 5,417,000
02. Chicago: 2,256,000
03. Philadelphia: 2,052,000
04. Boston: 1,890,000
05. Pittsburgh: 1,304,000
06. Saint Louis: 1,001,000
07. Cincinnati: 760,000
08. Baltimore: 737,000
09. Providence: 681,000
10. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 650,000
11. Washington DC: 593,000
12. Cleveland: 552,000
13. Kansas City: 545,000
14. Atlanta: 534,000
15. Detroit: 529,000
16. San Francisco-Oakland: 519,000
17. Buffalo: 509,000
18. Indianapolis: 463,000
19. Dallas-Fort Worth: 452,000
20. Columbus: 416,000
21. Louisville: 408,000
22. Milwaukee: 405,000
23. Nashville: 399,000
24. New Orleans: 375,000
25. Memphis: 327,000

1910:
01. New York: 7,452,000
02. Chicago: 2,931,000
03. Philadelphia: 2,442,000
04. Boston: 2,261,000
05. Pittsburgh: 1,780,000
06. Saint Louis: 1,214,000
07. Providence: 861,000
08. Cincinnati: 819,000
09. Baltimore: 815,000
10. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 808,000
11. Cleveland: 775,000
12. Detroit: 710,000
13 San Francisco-Oakland: 746,000
14. Washington DC: 658,000
15. Atlanta: 646,000
16. Kansas City: 643,000
17. Buffalo: 621,000
18. Dallas-Fort Worth: 571,000
19. Los Angeles: 539,000
20. Indianapolis: 517,000
21. Milwaukee: 511,000
22. Columbus: 487,000
23. New Orleans: 443,000
24. Louisville: 432,000
25. Nashville: 421,000

1920:
01. New York: 8,905,000
02. Chicago: 3,711,000
03. Philadelphia: 2,923,000
04. Boston: 2,563,000
05. Pittsburgh: 2,101,000
06. Detroit: 1,407,000
07. Saint Louis: 1,349,000
08. Cleveland: 1,104,000
09. Los Angeles: 998,000
10. San Francisco-Oakland: 969,000
11. Providence: 963,000
12. Baltimore: 947,000
13. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 921,000
14. Cincinnati: 869,000
15. Washington DC: 786,000
16. Buffalo: 753,000
17. Atlanta: 748,000
18. Kansas City: 739,000
19. Dallas-Fort Worth: 701,000
20. Milwaukee: 624,000
21. Seattle: 601,000
22. Indianapolis: 596,000
23. Columbus: 548,000
24. Rochester: 536,000
25. New Orleans: 486,000

1930:
01. New York: 11,359,000
02. Chicago: 4,882,000
03. Philadelphia: 3,361,000
04. Boston: 2,867,000
05. Pittsburgh: 2,382,000
06. Los Angeles: 2,327,000
07. Detroit: 2,293,000
08. Saint Louis: 1,557,000
09. Cleveland: 1,397,000
10. San Francisco-Oakland: 1,307,000
11. Baltimore: 1,083,000
12. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 1,070,000
13. Providence: 1,052,000
14. Cincinnati: 1,023,000
15. Buffalo: 912,000
16. Washington DC: 884,000
17. Kansas City: 875,000
18. Dallas-Fort Worth: 835,000
19. Milwaukee: 822,000
20. Atlanta: 815,000
21. Seattle: 706,000
22. Indianapolis: 681,000
23. Columbus: 624,000
24. Birmingham: 616,000
25. Rochester: 611,000

1940:
01. New York: 12,211,000
02. Chicago: 5,043,000
03. Philadelphia: 3,448,000
04. Boston: 2,927,000
05. Los Angeles: 2,916,000
06. Detroit: 2,507,000
07. Pittsburgh: 2,452,000
08. Saint Louis: 1,638,000
09. Cleveland: 1,432,000
10. San Francisco-Oakland: 1,413,000
11. Washington DC: 1,198,000
12. Baltimore: 1,189,000
13. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 1,162,000
14. Providence: 1,078,000
15. Cincinnati: 1,071,000
16. Buffalo: 958,000
17. Dallas-Fort Worth: 927,000
18. Atlanta: 921,000
19. Kansas City: 883,000
20. Milwaukee: 877,000
21. Seattle: 776,000
22. Houston: 753,000
23. Indianapolis: 729,000
24. Columbus: 664,000
25. Birmingham: 658,000

1950:
01. New York: 13,589,000
02. Chicago: 5,761,000
03. Los Angeles: 4,368,000
04. Philadelphia: 3,973,000
05. Boston: 3,187,000
06. Detroit: 3,170,000
07. Pittsburgh: 2,581,000
08. San Francisco-Oakland: 2,136,000
09. Saint Louis: 1,893,000
10. Washington DC: 1,721,000
11. Cleveland: 1,681,000
12. Baltimore: 1,472,000
13. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 1,346,000
14. Dallas-Fort Worth: 1,262,000
15. Cincinnati: 1,235,000
16. Providence: 1,173,000
17. Seattle: 1,120,000
18. Atlanta: 1,091,000
19. Buffalo: 1,089,000
20. Houston: 1,083,000
21. Milwaukee: 1,014,000
22. Kansas City: 1,001,000
23. Indianapolis: 860,000
24. Columbus: 794,000
25. New Orleans: 770,000

1960:
01. New York: 15,706,000
02. Chicago: 7,017,000
03. Los Angeles: 6,743,000
04. Philadelphia: 4,757,000
05. Detroit: 3,950,000
06. Boston: 3,516,000
07. Pittsburgh: 2,769,000
08. San Francisco-Oakland: 2,649,000
09. Washington DC: 2,327,000
10. Saint Louis: 2,248,000
11. Cleveland: 2,127,000
12. Baltimore: 1,820,000
13. Dallas-Fort Worth: 1,780,000
14. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 1,697,000
15. Houston: 1,595,000
16. Cincinnati: 1,534,000
17. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 1,497,000
18. Seattle: 1,429,000
19. Atlanta: 1,398,000
20. Buffalo: 1,307,000
21. Milwaukee: 1,279,000
22. Providence: 1,258,000
23. Kansas City: 1,247,000
24. Indianapolis: 1,102,000
25. San Diego: 1,033,000

1970:
01. New York: 17,506,000
02. Los Angeles: 8,452,000
03. Chicago: 7,887,000
04. Philadelphia: 5,317,000
05. Detroit: 4,431,000
06. Boston: 3,918,000
07. Washington DC: 3,164,000
08. San Francisco-Oakland: 3,110,000
09. Pittsburgh: 2,759,000
10. Saint Louis: 2,521,000
11. Dallas-Fort Worth: 2,429,000
12. Cleveland: 2,321,000
13. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 2,237,000
14. Houston: 2,195,000
15. Baltimore: 2,089,000
16. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 2,080,000
17. Atlanta: 1,852,000
18. Seattle: 1,833,000
19. Cincinnati: 1,680,000
20. Kansas City: 1,415,000
22. Milwaukee: 1,404,000
23. Providence: 1,391,000
24. San Diego: 1,358,000
25. Buffalo: 1,349,000

1980:
01. New York: 16,868,000
02. Los Angeles: 9,410,000
03. Chicago: 8,053,000
04. Philadelphia: 5,240,000
05. Detroit: 4,353,000
06. Boston: 3,939,000
07. Washington DC: 3,427,000
08. San Francisco-Oakland: 3,251,000
09. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 3,221,000
10. Houston: 3,138,000
11. Dallas-Fort Worth: 3,034,000
12. Pittsburgh: 2,649,000
13. Saint Louis: 2,486,000
14. Atlanta: 2,338,000
15. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 2,256,000
16. Baltimore: 2,200,000
17. Cleveland: 2,174,000
18. Seattle: 2,093,000
19. San Diego: 1,862,000
20. Cincinnati: 1,741,000
21. Tampa: 1,614,000
22. Phoenix: 1,600,000
23. Riverside-San Bernardino: 1,558,000
24. Kansas City: 1,482,000
25. Denver: 1,451,000

1990:
01. New York: 17,413,000
02. Los Angeles: 11,274,000
03. Chicago: 8,182,000
04. Philadelphia: 5,435,000
05. Detroit: 4,249,000
06. Washington DC: 4,157,000
07. Boston: 4,134,000
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 4,056,000
09. Dallas-Fort Worth: 4,018,778
10. Houston: 3,751,000
11. San Francisco-Oakland: 3,687,000
12. Atlanta: 3,082,000
13. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 2,595,000
14. Riverside-San Bernardino: 2,589,000
15. Seattle: 2,559,000
16. Saint Louis: 2,561,000
17. San Diego: 2,498,000
18. Pittsburgh: 2,468,000
19. Baltimore: 2,382,000
20. Phoenix: 2,238,000
21. Cleveland: 2,102,000
22. Tampa: 2,068,000
23. Cincinnati: 1,832,000
24. Denver: 1,650,000
25. Kansas City: 1,615,000

2000:
01. New York: 18,945,000
02. Los Angeles: 12,366,000
03. Chicago: 9,098,000
04. Philadelphia: 5,687,000
05. Dallas-Fort Worth: 5,204,000
06. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 5,008,000
07. Washington DC: 4,837,000
08. Houston: 4,693,000
09. Detroit: 4,453,000
10. Boston: 4,391,000
11. Atlanta: 4,263,000
12. San Francisco-Oakland: 4,124,000
13. Riverside-San Bernardino: 3,255,000
14. Phoenix: 3,252,000
15. Seattle: 3,044,000
16. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 3,032,000
17. San Diego: 2,814,000
18. Saint Louis: 2,675,000
19. Baltimore: 2,553,000
20. Pittsburgh: 2,431,000
21. Tampa: 2,396,000
22. Denver: 2,158,000
23. Cleveland: 2,148,000
24. Cincinnati: 1,995,000
25. Portland: 1,928,000

2010:
01. New York: 19,567,000
02. Los Angeles: 12,829,000
03. Chicago: 9,461,000
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 6,426,000
05. Philadelphia: 5,965,000
06. Houston: 5,920,000
07. Washington DC: 5,636,000
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 5,565,000
09. Atlanta: 5,287,000
10. Boston: 4,552,000
11. San Francisco-Oakland: 4,335,000
12. Detroit: 4,296,000
13. Riverside-San Bernardino: 4,225,000
14. Phoenix: 4,193,000
15. Seattle: 3,440,000
16. Minneapolis-Saint Paul: 3,349,000
17. San Diego: 3,095,000
18. Saint Louis: 2,788,000
19. Tampa: 2,783,000
20. Baltimore: 2,710,000
21. Denver: 2,543,000
22. Pittsburgh: 2,356,000
23. Charlotte: 2,217,000
24. Portland: 2,226,000
25. San Antonio: 2,143,000

* Both Washington D.C. and Miami/Fort Lauderdale have been there before. The 6th spot, historically speaking (literally) has largely been a revolving door over the decades.

Here is how it is year by year of the 2010s decade so far. Even just this decade, the 6th spot has had 3 different occupants (Houston (2010), Philadelphia (2011-2014), Washington D.C. (2015-Present)).

2010:
01. New York: 19,567,410
02. Los Angeles: 12,828,837
03. Chicago: 9,461,105
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 6,426,214
05. Philadelphia: 5,965,343
06. Houston: 5,920,416
07. Washington DC: 5,636,232
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 5,564,635
09. Atlanta: 5,286,728

10. Boston: 4,552,402

2011:
01. New York: 19,751,176
02. Los Angeles: 12,942,360
03. Chicago: 9,493,862
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 6,571,576
05. Houston: 6,057,412
06. Philadelphia: 5,997,026
07. Washington D.C.: 5,777,111
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 5,697,425
09. Atlanta: 5,373,558

10. Boston: 4,608,410

2012:
01. New York: 19,864,434
02. Los Angeles: 13,038,490
03. Chicago: 9,516,555
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 6,704,080
05. Houston: 6,180,817
06. Philadelphia: 6,020,631
07. Washington D.C.: 5,870,500
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 5,779,518
09. Atlanta: 5,452,145

10. Boston: 4,652,011

2013:
01. New York: 19,968,845
02. Los Angeles: 13,128,012
03. Chicago: 9,535,961
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 6,813,055
05. Houston: 6,324,167
06. Philadelphia: 6,034,367
07. Washington D.C.: 5,957,037
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 5,856,943
09. Atlanta: 5,517,230

10. Boston: 4,696,293

2014:
01. New York: 20,052,234
02. Los Angeles: 13,201,053
03. Chicago: 9,543,893
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 6,945,274
05. Houston: 6,488,046
06. Philadelphia: 6,050,799
07. Washington D.C.: 6,020,777
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 5,930,210
09. Atlanta: 5,605,765

10. Boston: 4,734,711

2015:
01. New York: 20,118,063
02. Los Angeles: 13,268,828
03. Chicago: 9,532,569
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 7,089,888
05. Houston: 6,647,465
06. Washington D.C.: 6,078,469
07. Philadelphia: 6,062,303
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 6,001,717
09. Atlanta: 5,699,050

10. Boston: 4,766,755

2016:
01. New York: 20,153,634
02. Los Angeles: 13,310,447
03. Chicago: 9,512,999
04. Dallas-Fort Worth: 7,233,323
05. Houston: 6,772,470
06. Washington D.C.: 6,131,977
07. Philadelphia: 6,070,500
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 6,066,387
09. Atlanta: 5,789,700

10. Boston: 4,794,447
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Old 04-08-2017, 04:13 PM
 
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It's amazing how slow growing Atlanta was throughout most of the 20th century. It's like a switch just turned on around 1980.
Also, NYC, LA and Chicago went through some incredible booms in the mid 1900s.
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Old 04-08-2017, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DC4ever View Post
Unless DC and Baltimore MSA's combine to form a 10M+ metro by 2020.
It's currently at 9,665,892.
There are a lot of wildcards in play for the next 14 years.

Wildcard #1:

- Greater Phoenix MSA gets itself into the Top 10 by 2020. This at face value doesn't really mean much in the immediate future as much as it does in the medium to longterm. Phoenix should finish the 2010s decade with a population around 5 million people by 2020, which will likely be 1.1 million shy of the place in #9 (Philadelphia) in 2020. However, by 2030 Phoenix could make it interesting. In the last couple of years Phoenix has assumed its pre-recession form by going + 88,000 and + 93,000 respectively the past two years. It seems an acceleration is on the horizon as well, as these numbers depict more of a "start of something" rather than a ceiling for years to come, and that is clearly evidenced by Phoenix posting an acceleration each year-over-year period for the last 4 years. I think it is reasonable to expect Phoenix back over + 100,000 a year in the near future, it's been trending that direction more and more each year for the last 4 years and it used to be at that level for nearly 13 years prior to the Great Recession. So the wildcard is Phoenix's growth and whether it continues to post acceleration or if this + 85,000 - 95,000 is a ceiling.

- Whether Greater Phoenix MSA can stay in the Top 10 following the 2023 census redefinitions remains to be seen but my expectation is that Phoenix's time in the Top 10 MSAs will only be a brief 3 year long cameo (2020-2023) before it is pushed back out by the redefined Boston and San Francisco/Oakland areas.

Wildcard #2:

- The San Francisco/Oakland MSA and Boston MSAs both enlarge to gargantuan sizes when going from MSA to CSA. A lot of the additional territories that exist in the CSA but not the MSA can be subject to being absorbed by the core MSA of each place in the 2023 census definition realignment. Here's an overview of how much they expand when going from one metric to the next in mathematical terms;

2016 Population

Greater Boston MSA: 4,794,447
Greater Boston CSA: 8,176,376

Difference from MSA to CSA? 3,381,929 people. That's nearly 3.4 million people that are added into Greater Boston when the definition shifts from MSA to CSA, when it goes from 25% minimum commuter threshold to 15% commuter threshold. Commuter links are prone to increasing ties over the course of time and Greater Boston MSA is poised to add areas that exist in its CSA into its MSA.

Currently these are the MSAs and micropolitan areas that are within Greater Boston CSA;

1. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area
2. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Metropolitan Statistical Area
3. Worcester, MA-CT Metropolitan Statistical Area
4. Manchester-Nashua, NH Metropolitan Statistical Area
5. Barnstable Town, MA Metropolitan Statistical Area
6. Concord, NH Micropolitan Statistical Area
7. Laconia, NH Micropolitan Statistical Area

Similarly, the same applies to the San Francisco Bay Area as well when going from MSA to CSA.

2016 Population

Greater San Francisco/Oakland MSA: 4,679,166
Greater San Francisco Bay Area CSA: 8,751,807

Difference from MSA to CSA? 4,072,641 people.

Currently these are the MSAs and micropolitan areas that are within the Greater San Francisco Bay Area CSA;

1. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
2. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
3. Stockton-Lodi, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
4. Santa Rosa, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
5. Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
5. Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
6. Napa, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area

The San Francisco/Oakland MSA likely wont ever absorb the San Jose MSA into its MSA. However, if the San Francisco/Oakland MSA goes on to absorb other MSAs in its CSA right now like Stockton MSA, Santa Rosa MSA, Vallejo MSA, or the Napa MSA - which it will do in 2023, it will add at least two, possibly three of those in 2023 into its MSA, then it will push itself into the Top 10 MSAs. Likely higher than #8 but below #5.

If both Boston MSA and the San Francisco/Oakland MSA add MSAs that are in its CSA to the core MSA in the 2023 census definitions, then the MSA that are currently ranked #9 and #10 in the largest MSAs of the United States will be replaced and taken out of the top 10. Again, San Francisco/Oakland MSA doesn't even have to absorb San Jose MSA, it can absorb two or three of the other minor MSAs that are currently in its CSA and will still wind up with 6.3 to 6.6 million or more people. Greater Boston is also increasingly likely to add areas into the core Boston MSA that are currently in its CSA during the 2023 census realignment. Since 2013, areas in Boston's CSA apart from Boston MSA have increasingly become even more dependent of Boston MSA for employment, services, amenities, and offerings. Expect that to add up to absorption in 2023.

Finally, there are over 1 million people in the Washington DC-Baltimore CSA that live in MSAs or micropolitan areas that are not the Washington DC MSA or the Baltimore MSA. I don't expect Baltimore MSA to be absorbed into the Washington DC MSA in 2023, similar to how I don't expect San Francisco/Oakland MSA to absorb the San Jose MSA in 2023. However, I do expect the Washington D.C. MSA to absorb the smaller MSAs and micropolitan areas and the bulk of those 1 million people in the Washington DC-Baltimore CSA that don't live in the Baltimore MSA or Washington DC MSA.

Wildcard #3:

- Natural disasters have the ability to throw everything off track. Something to keep a watch out for but not likely going to be a factor to a significant extent during this period.

Summary:

- I think the ranking of the Top 10 most populous MSAs in 2020 will be as follows with Washington D.C. retaining the 6th spot it currently is in now (IMO);

01. New York
02. Los Angeles
03. Chicago
04. Dallas/Fort Worth
05. Houston
06. Washington D.C.
07. Miami/Fort Lauderdale
08. Atlanta
09. Philadelphia
10. Phoenix

After the 2023 census definition realignment, I believe the Top 10 MSAs will then shake out to look more like this;

01. New York
02. Los Angeles
03. Chicago
04. Dallas/Fort Worth
05. Houston
06. Washington D.C.
07. San Francisco/Oakland
08. Boston
09. Miami/Fort Lauderdale
10. Atlanta

By the 2030 census, the Top 10 MSAs should look more like this;

01. New York
02. Los Angeles
03. Chicago
04. Dallas/Fort Worth
05. Houston
06. Washington D.C.
07. Atlanta
08. Miami/Fort Lauderdale
09. San Francisco/Oakland
10. Boston

This is contingent of the MSAs of Boston and San Francisco/Oakland being expanded in the 2023 census redefinitions, which is that both are very well poised to do so. Over the decades, both areas have exerted far more control and influence over their surrounding MSAs, the connection is getting deeper, not thinner. I don't expect Baltimore MSA or San Jose MSA to be absorbed by Washington DC MSA or San Francisco/Oakland MSA in 2023 but both Washington DC MSA and San Francisco/Oakland MSA will no doubt absorb two or more of the other minor MSAs or micropolitan areas that they have in their broader CSAs currently. Boston will more than likely outright absorb Worcester MSA and a heavy chance of taking in Providence MSA as well, primarily because the employment sector in Providence has been decimated with stagnation since the start of the 2010s and the commuting ties have increased exponentially between the two areas to an even more significant extent.

Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 04-08-2017 at 04:58 PM..
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