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View Poll Results: By 2025-2030, your selection of where you think will be the 10th largest in the United States?
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 38 51.35%
San Francisco–Oakland–Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 22 29.73%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4 5.41%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area 8 10.81%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 2 2.70%
Voters: 74. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-28-2016, 07:08 PM
 
Location: In the heights
21,683 posts, read 23,136,015 times
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Well, what are the chances that Riverside and/or San Bernadino will merge into the LA metro? Commuter rail expansions are already underway and with more projected. Light rail extension to the far western reaches of San Bernardino are underway. The far western part of both Riverside and San Bernardino where the vast majority of people live are more connected to LA's urban areas than the communities than the further flung communities within LA county.
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Old 03-28-2016, 07:39 PM
 
3,813 posts, read 3,338,386 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
Well, what are the chances that Riverside and/or San Bernadino will merge into the LA metro? Commuter rail expansions are already underway and with more projected. Light rail extension to the far western reaches of San Bernardino are underway. The far western part of both Riverside and San Bernardino where the vast majority of people live are more connected to LA's urban areas than the communities than the further flung communities within LA county.
That's pretty much the point. In 2003 the OMB redefined how they aligned metros and did wacky things like split the counties that make up Detroit's urban area in half to make two separate metros (Which has since been corrected). Out of that creative logic a handful of older traditional contiguous urban areas were split up like the Bay Area. This also gave us Riverside/San Bernadino as a "major" 4million person metro area separate from LA.

In reality the Inland Empire would be less significant than Fresno without the proximity to LA. If the 80's/90's didn't drive up land values in LA County, big job providers never would have concentrated to the cheaper inland areas, and commuting patterns wouldn't have shifted enough to put the cross county commuting numbers under the threshold to be included in the core metro. The Inland Empire is a fake metro, it should not be included in rankings with other 4million+ areas. It doesn't exist on it's own. The same can be said for Fairfield County CT but it's not relevant in this discussion.
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Old 03-28-2016, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Washington State desert
5,264 posts, read 3,452,672 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
That's pretty much the point. In 2003 the OMB redefined how they aligned metros and did wacky things like split the counties that make up Detroit's urban area in half to make two separate metros (Which has since been corrected). Out of that creative logic a handful of older traditional contiguous urban areas were split up like the Bay Area. This also gave us Riverside/San Bernadino as a "major" 4million person metro area separate from LA.

In reality the Inland Empire would be less significant than Fresno without the proximity to LA. If the 80's/90's didn't drive up land values in LA County, big job providers never would have concentrated to the cheaper inland areas, and commuting patterns wouldn't have shifted enough to put the cross county commuting numbers under the threshold to be included in the core metro. The Inland Empire is a fake metro, it should not be included in rankings with other 4million+ areas. It doesn't exist on it's own. The same can be said for Fairfield County CT but it's not relevant in this discussion.
I totally agree with this. To me, (and I could be wrong), a metro area that shares major media with a larger metro (as Riverside/SB does), is still a part of the larger MSA. Yes, the Inland Empire has its own radio stations and newspapers, (both dying industries), but they are small compared to the major LA media outlets. When it comes to sports, same deal. Most in this outlying area are LA fans. And most probably would consider themselves as residents of SoCal, not the Inland Empire, unless asked for specifics.
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Old 03-28-2016, 08:30 PM
 
669 posts, read 414,533 times
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Boston is going tall everywhere. Out of land in 5 years (sort of). They'll still build many more +200~390' midrises), but Boston is badly zoned. galactically land strapped. Skyscrapers are gonna be few and far between for a good while +5 years out. Boston already is the 2nd densest city inside it's limit after New York (27,000/sq mi), at just slightly below 18,000/sq mi. no one will challenge that number anytime soon. In the next few years, expect Boston to get a bit denser - and America's other biggest cities top out at about 14,500/sq mi.

Boston keeping it's spot as the nation's 10th largest metro is unlikely. it will slip a couple of notches. But that won't necessarily be a bad thing. The city's size, density, urban experience, and suburbs will continue to make it one of the most desirable places to live anywhere.
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Old 03-28-2016, 08:33 PM
 
Location: Seattle aka tier 3 city :)
1,078 posts, read 944,956 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by odurandina View Post
Boston is going tall everywhere. Out of land in 5 years (sort of). They'll still build many more +200~390' midrises), but Boston is badly zoned. galactically land strapped. Skyscrapers are gonna be few and far between for a good while +5 years out. Boston already is the 2nd densest city inside it's limit after New York (27,000/sq mi), at just slightly below 18,000/sq mi. no one will challenge that number anytime soon (America's other biggest cities top at about 14,500/sq mi. Boston keeping it's spot as the nation's 10th largest metro is unlikely. it will slip a couple of notches. But that won't necessarily be a bad thing. The city's size, density, urban experience, etc will make it one of the finest places to live anywhere.
Ummm, ever heard of San Francisco
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
2,377 posts, read 2,571,109 times
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If San Francisco can figure out how to build new housing it could go ape **** overnight.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:25 AM
 
3,813 posts, read 3,338,386 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by odurandina View Post

Boston keeping it's spot as the nation's 10th largest metro is unlikely. it will slip a couple of notches. But that won't necessarily be a bad thing. The city's size, density, urban experience, and suburbs will continue to make it one of the most desirable places to live anywhere.


Boston's MSA keeping the 10th spot has little to do with the core cities ability to add more residents. All that needs to happen is Metro Boston needs to keep attracting residents at a rate faster than the MSA's below it. Whether or not they live in Boston itself is inconsequential.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,583 posts, read 8,151,143 times
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The San Francisco/Oakland MSA will be redefined in 2023 almost assuredly, to reflect the commute patterns that have taken hold since 2003 (the last time the MSA made an addition). One of, or all, of Napa MSA, Santa Rosa MSA, Vallejo MSA, or even Stockton MSA will be added into the San Francisco/Oakland MSA.

I've never looked into Boston MSAs commuter-shed before, but I would be hard pressed if areas in its current CSA aren't added into its MSA. Most specific among them, Providence MSA and Manchester MSA.

I think Phoenix MSA and San Francisco/Oakland MSA will both enter the top 10 in the big picture, the former through organic natural population growth as its driver, the latter for the combination of area redefinition (areas in CSA going into MSA) and also organic natural population growth. In the short term, things will be close between Boston, Phoenix, and San Francisco/Oakland. The 2020 census will offer some limited clarity and the 2023 redefinitions will offer further clarity into the matter.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:38 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
3,507 posts, read 2,903,754 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calisonn View Post
Ummm, ever heard of San Francisco
Yea, I don't know where he's getting that 18K number, either. I think he might have interchanged Boston with SF, as Boston is at 13K IIRC.
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Old 03-29-2016, 03:42 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
139 posts, read 124,290 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red John View Post
I've never looked into Boston MSAs commuter-shed before, but I would be hard pressed if areas in its current CSA aren't added into its MSA. Most specific among them, Providence MSA and Manchester MSA.
I'd place the Worcester MSA as a very likely addition as well, possibly before Manchester - by the way, there are actually two separate commuter rail lines (Worcester line and Fitchburg line) that connect Worcester's metropolitan area to Boston's.
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