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Orlando, Austin, Raleigh, and Dallas-Fort Worth are the most noteworthy major metros on this list. These four cities are young and vibrant, they have a lot going for them and will most definitely put up a good fight with the older established powerhouse metros of the northeast. I foresee major companies and entire industries further expanding into these cities and even relocating entire corporate offices to these cities, this has already been happening.
San Jose is the most noteworthy imo because it's economy continues to grow by leaps and bounds despite a near $1 Million median home price and California's famously high taxes.
So you think these corporate relocations are a net neutral at best?
If they require tax incentives or subsidies, then they might as well be. All these big businesses that different states try to lure with various tax breaks are large enough in scale that they can pay for their own damn relocation. Tax incentives and subsidies are corporate welfare, and a waste of money. Besides, if these states are even half as "business-friendly" as they proclaim, then they shouldn't need to offer any tax breaks in the first place. Businesses will choose them on their own accord. And before anybody says, "The employees of these businesses will contribute to the tax base," well then I guess taxpayer-subsidized spectator facilities for professional sports teams are a great investment since the players, staff and executives will all contribute to the tax base.
Well a lot of the Florida metros only have one way to go at this point: up.
Most of those areas in Florida projected to see economic growth are smaller and are bolstered by money poured in by retirees. Heck, The Villages is practically nothing but retirees and the services that support them. Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers and Naples are pretty much a daisy-chain of metros that are becoming more interconnected and all boast a lot of retiree money. For many, the SE coast of Florida has just become too expensive for people on a fixed income.
I have to wonder what happens to these retiree havens when future generations "retire" without pensions. I hear so many stories from friends talk about how their parents and grandparents retired from GM or other industrial jobs with deep pockets created by the mid 20th century economy (50's-70's) and generous pensions. These weren't just the 1% types either. These were rank and file mid manager types who were loyal to their companies and put in a lot of years. That whole economic model is now gone. Will these areas in Florida collapse because they have economies that are highly dependent on retirees?
Most of those areas in Florida projected to see economic growth are smaller and are bolstered by money poured in by retirees. Heck, The Villages is practically nothing but retirees and the services that support them. Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers and Naples are pretty much a daisy-chain of metros that are becoming more interconnected and all boast a lot of retiree money. For many, the SE coast of Florida has just become too expensive for people on a fixed income.
I have to wonder what happens to these retiree havens when future generations "retire" without pensions. I hear so many stories from friends talk about how their parents and grandparents retired from GM or other industrial jobs with deep pockets created by the mid 20th century economy (50's-70's) and generous pensions. These weren't just the 1% types either. These were rank and file mid manager types who were loyal to their companies and put in a lot of years. That whole economic model is now gone. Will these areas in Florida collapse because they have economies that are highly dependent on retirees?
Florida's growth will start slowing down after 2020.
I don't think it'll ever lose population because Miami is a gateway for immigrants from Latin America, and future retirees with decent means will probably still choose Florida, but once the "Baby Boomers" have all retired, the party's over. Not only is "Generation X" smaller in number, but it's the first generation in the United States that's financially and economically worse off than the generation before it, so many of them won't even get to retire, let alone acquire the means to move to Florida in old age.
Quite frankly, Florida's economy really doesn't seem to offer much other than jobs in tourism and serving retirees. This is why I say that Florida's economy lacks substance. There's a reason why Florida's GDP is relatively low for its population. Ultimately, I think Miami will be fine, and so will Jacksonville to a lesser extent, but Tampa and Orlando will struggle, and a lot of the smaller metropolitan areas like Sarasota, Naples and Melbourne will crash.
Of course, this is all avoidable if Florida starts genuinely diversifying its economy and growing it from within, but many people are prisoners of the moment, so I don't know if it'll happen or not. Another potential wild card is a new influx of immigrants from Europe if the Eurozone collapses, or if countries start falling to an insurrection of reactionary Islam, both of which are distinct possibilities the way things have been going there lately.
Fayettevile, Arkansas (where I live) is rapidly becoming at least a regional powerhouse economically. Benton County, one of the two "big counties" in the metro, led all counties in percentage wage growth last year. Walmart, Tyson and JB Hunt are the big players here, along with representatives of all the companies they do business with. This new projected growth is on top of being one of the earlier metros to emerge from the recession. There are a lot of positives lining up for Northwest Arkansas right now.
Quite frankly, Florida's economy really doesn't seem to offer much other than jobs in tourism and serving retirees. This is why I say that Florida's economy lacks substance. There's a reason why Florida's GDP is relatively low for its population. Ultimately, I think Miami will be fine, and so will Jacksonville to a lesser extent, but Tampa and Orlando will struggle, and a lot of the smaller metropolitan areas like Sarasota, Naples and Melbourne will crash.
This statement is based on an outdated stereotype which is no longer valid, Florida HAS in fact been diversifying its economy at a record pace within the past decade, this is one of the primary reasons why Florida is doing so well from an economic standpoint and is booming with population growth, in addition to the obvious success of the tourism industry, up and coming industries in Florida, especially Orlando include Aviation/Aerospace Sector, Digital Media Arts, Military Simulation and Training, Biomedical Research, and Healthcare just to name a few. Miami is also a major international banking and financial trade center with several HQs for major Latin American banks and financial institutions, one of the busiest cargo trade ports in North America, and not to mention its reputation as a major cultural and TV production hub for music, fashion, and entertainment on a global scale.
Not to mention, Florida is home to a growing list of corporate HQs including AAA, Fidelity Financial, ADT, CSX, Harris Corporation, Tupperware Brands, Office Depot, Royal Caribbean International, Zurich Insurance, Hard Rock Cafe, Hooters, Spirit Airlines, Burger King, Muvico Theaters, Hawaiian Tropic, DHL America, Darden Restaurants, Westgate, Hilton Grand Vacations, Marriott Vacation Club, Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line, Carnival, Telemundo, Univision, Tropicana Juices, and Ryder just to name a few.
Last edited by MrKnight; 06-21-2015 at 03:53 PM..
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