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It going to take more than 5 years for Chicago to become 4th, by any measure. Chicago's strength against LA/SF is that the Windy City stands alone as a regional capital, the economic hub of a region of 65 million people. LA and San Fran are both powerful cities (hence why California is a behemoth), but some of the influence is divided among them.
I missed this post earlier. Actually it will take less than 5 years for Washington DC/Baltimore to surpass Chicagoland CSA by the 2020 census (it'll actually happen in 2018 or 2019). City, MSA, UA, CSA, and U.N. UA area the measures that I use. I also use all of them. The gap between the two is negligible and in 2008 the Washington DC/Baltimore CSA surpassed Chicago CSAs GDP, its only widened the gap since then.
Chicago was third in the United States and Canada by ALL of the measures of population up until 2013 (when Toronto passed it by city), just as it has been that way since 1870, back when most of these measures didn't even exist (but we could still see the data for them since the measures as comprised of counties often).
In addition to the Washington DC-Baltimore CSA passing Chicagoland by 2020, the Golden Horseshoe Area (Toronto) is expected to pass up Chicago around 2025, the San Francisco Bay Area CSA by the 2030 census (even without adding any areas in), the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex (both MSA and CSA) by 2035, and Greater Houston (City, MSA, CSA, UA, U.N. UA) by the 2040 census. This is also taking into account that boundaries stay as they are currently and also taking into account that ALL of these 5 places slowdown 15-20% in the process.
So I've literally given Chicago the advantages it needs in the comparison and the outlook is that it is still poised to be surpassed. Starting from 2020, Chicago will be passed up in one measure or another for population on average every 5 years by a different city entirely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thefallensrvnge
That said, I always take the "in 50 years" statistics with a grain of salt because a lot can happen in that time.
Well look, I didn't make this to be a "in 50 years" thread. I made for the comparison to be right now in the present or the interim future (next 5 years, basically "this" decade).
The projections in my paragraph above don't even go out 50 years, try half that, at 25 years. It goes without saying, with so many places catching up to Chicago that more than just one or two will likely pass it. Chicago in the last 50 years has only churned out 1 good decade of both population growth and economic growth and that was 1990-2000 decade where the city gained 100,000 people and the metropolitan area added 1 million while its job market and GDP actually closed the gap on Los Angeles.
All of that 1990-2000 magic was reversed in 2000-2010 and its even less competitive now in the 2010s (2010-2020) so far.
Yea, Toronto is so downplayed here on City-Data. It has the prominence of DC, the urbanscape of Chicago and the wealth of the Bay. The more I think about it, the more I feel Toronto is the number one challenger, two behind DC if we go CSA.
Agreed. I think it just comes down to fact that CityData is heavily American, and a most of them just haven't had a chance to visit Toronto in person.
I got to go a few years back and was just blown away. In terms of vibe, its like a combination of my favorite parts of Chicago, NYC, and London. Scale-wise, it feels like Chicago but maybe a bit bigger. It certainly completely outclasses the much smaller cities of SF and DC.
My visit was in 2011 before the real estate cycle had really picked up again here in LA, and I remember being impressed with the number of number of projects under construction. I asked my Canadian friend when the Toronto real estate market had started rebounding, and I'll never forget his reply: "Rebounding? It never crashed." BOOM.
In addition to the Washington DC-Baltimore CSA passing Chicagoland by 2020, the Golden Horseshoe Area (Toronto) is expected to pass up Chicago around 2025, the San Francisco Bay Area CSA by the 2030 census (even without adding any areas in), the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex (both MSA and CSA) by 2035, and Greater Houston (City, MSA, CSA, UA, U.N. UA) by the 2040 census. This is also taking into account that boundaries stay as they are currently and also taking into account that ALL of these 5 places slowdown 15-20% in the process.
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Population projection for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in 2016 will be 9.7 million (confirmed or not next year by Stats Can) and 2021 will be 10.4 million.. By 2041 expected to be 13.5 million.
Population projection for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in 2016 will be 9.6 million and 2021 will be 10.4 million..
I stand corrected. (Thanks for the information).
Sorry Chicago, I thought the Golden Horseshoe (Toronto) would surpass you in 2025, turns out my estimations off raw number growth were far too conservative and the actual Golden Horseshoe will surpass it even earlier than that -- as per Ontario's projections for the area.
Agreed. I think it just comes down to fact that CityData is heavily American, and a most of them just haven't had a chance to visit Toronto in person.
I got to go a few years back and was just blown away. In terms of vibe, its like a combination of my favorite parts of Chicago, NYC, and London. Scale-wise, it feels like Chicago but maybe a bit bigger. It certainly completely outclasses the much smaller cities of SF and DC.
My visit was in 2011 before the real estate cycle had really picked up again here in LA, and I remember being impressed with the number of number of projects under construction. I asked my Canadian friend when the Toronto real estate market had started rebounding, and I'll never forget his reply: "Rebounding? It never crashed." BOOM.
That's great that you had a good time in our city! I hope you enjoyed downtown.
Population projection for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in 2016 will be 9.7 million (confirmed or not next year by Stats Can) and 2021 will be 10.4 million.. By 2041 expected to be 13.5 million.
The Chicago metropolitan area (and Chicago in general for all measures) has been in the United States Top 3 from 1870 and will resume 5 more years in that space before finally being knocked down to 4th. That will end 150 years of Chicago being a Top 3 place in every measure for the first time, thus ending the popularly assumed "Big 3 Era" (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago) of current and "Big 3 Era" of historical times (New York, Chicago, Philadelphia), which had already ended several decades to over half-a-century back when Los Angeles effectively replaced Philadelphia in the Big 3.
I think most people on the forum see the writing on the wall, that 3rd is foggy and possibly open for grabs right now. I've seen some scholars actually begin suggesting that even 2nd is open for discussion, particularly with the surge of the Silicon Valley related tech boom in the San Francisco Bay Area. People like Wendell Cox, Joel Koetkin, Richard Florida, among others believe that the San Francisco Bay Area poses a legit threat to Los Angeles and not in the distant future but right now currently.
Just wanted to get some opinions on it. Seems like the potential for a legit discussion, for heavy-weights.
It is quite remarkable that a new era is in store. These three cities have been entrenched for a long time and in three very distinct areas of the country. Chicago has been mostly stagnant for the last 40 years and the only reason it has held on to the top tier is because for a long time the only cities that were close (Philadelphia, Detroit, St. Louis) all faltered for the same reason as Chicago. I think it might be passed by DC or the Bay Area, it will still hold the public perception of being the third city for a long time because of being the mega-city in the US Midwest and for the legacy of its prestige. Just as it probably held on to the "number 2" spot in people's minds after LA had already surpassed it. I think DFW should be mentioned in the mix in about 20 years as it is growing by leaps and bounds and is not so heavily dependent on one industry. Plus DFW has no geographical boundaries to growth.
For the original post though I would say DC/Baltimore area. The growth is mostly is on the DC side, if Baltimore showed just a little bit of growth the whole CSA would explode. So I will say DC
Location: Watching half my country turn into Gilead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2
Toronto doesn't have a CSA.. I think the best comparison would be the Golden Horseshoe which would be about the same area as many of the largest U.S CSA's. In 2011 the horseshoe had 8.7 million.. In 2015 I don't think it would be that far below the D.C CSA of 9.5 million. One thing Toronto has over D.C is a more densely populated and cohesive urban area. Its more dense than the Bay area and probably similar in overall density to Chicago's MSA - but is growing faster and becoming more dense than Chicago.
As for Toronto being downplayed in here, I don't think its anything against the city other than its in another country.. Hey Toronto is the only city outside the U.S to have a MLB and NBA franchise so its probably the most 'American' foreign city outside the U.S.
Interesting though Toronto is more populous than Houston across the board - city proper and metro and is a far more dense of an urban area. Houston has a strong GDP and healthy growth rate but the Greater Toronto area is growing at about the same rate as Houston metro and already has a strong head start in terms of size.
Toronto has already done two years ago what Houston hasn't yet - exceeded Chicago to become the 4th largest city proper in N.A.. in 4 to 5 years Toronto city proper should exceed 3 million.
I think you're right though - it would take a looooooong time for any of them (including Houston) to match L.A.. Its already been a megacity for decades.
Yea, I know Canada doesn't have CSAs--I mentioned that in an earlier post. Still, for all intents and purposes, the Golden Horseshoe IS a CSA. But yea, I concur, Toronto is probably the most "American" of cities not in the US.
Yes Chicago time as part of the big 3 is over but it's place in history is the 2nd city behind Nyc .
The correct answer is the Bay area of course but L.A is so massive & huge that it has the 6th greatest GDP in the world now & it's also way younger than Nyc & London. Give L.A another 50 or 100 years & it'll be surpassed Nyc & other world cities for sure .
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I hope you enjoyed downtown.
