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Old 08-23-2015, 07:46 PM
 
1,975 posts, read 2,580,685 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleverfield View Post
Regarding Cleveland, while it may not qualify as a skyscraper, we do have a 374 foot, 28 story Hilton hotel currently being built, and we have this on the way: way:First look: nuCLEus project renderings show 54-story tower in downtown Cleveland (gallery) | cleveland.com
Plus, we got the 21-story Ernst & Young tower in the Flats East Bank in 2013... That's pretty close to a "high rise" as I understand it. Also, the Carl B. Stokes Federal Courthouse tower is 23 stories and opened in 2002.

By the definition of a skyscraper -- 40+ stories -- very few cities get these, even New York has slowed building skyscrapers after 9-11 because, after that horrible tragedy, a lot of people are afraid to work in them nowadays. NuCLEus would be amazing.

Last edited by TheProf; 08-23-2015 at 08:01 PM..
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Old 08-23-2015, 11:57 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia/ Rehoboth Beach
262 posts, read 199,293 times
Reputation: 251
Quote:
Originally Posted by GatsbyGatz View Post
What projects are you referring to? Seattle is incredibly consistent lately with proposals progressing to the construction phase.
I posted a post some time ago in the recent past , about growth rates and steep upward slopes . They spell trouble either in biology , real estate or equity markets Et al. . Thats just the nature of things in the real world .
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Old 08-24-2015, 12:18 AM
 
Location: Seattle, WA
2,944 posts, read 3,609,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DistrictDirt View Post
^ I agree with the last few posters. That list from Seattle is impressive, but fully 2/3 of the buildings on the list are proposed only.

Anyone who's been through a cycle before knows how it goes: not every proposal becomes reality. Not by a long shot. Projects that are under construction is a much more meaningful measure, as its far less common for a project to get derailed once shovels hit the dirt.
The majority of the proposals are for residential towers that are cashing in on the Amazon hiring boom (plus Expedia's imminent move near Downtown Seattle). I don't mean to sound like a total Seattle booster, I'm just laying out the economic reality going on here. There is nothing speculative about Seattle's building growth; it is a simple fact that thousands of jobs are being added downtown and therefore it is a guarantee profit return for developers to construct residential towers. These developers are making bank on their residential properties so there is no reason why these proposed residential towers won't get built. Seattle is in a housing shortage and developers are basically striking a goldmine with residential unit construction.

Last edited by GatsbyGatz; 08-24-2015 at 12:36 AM..
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Old 08-24-2015, 12:29 AM
 
Location: Portland, OR -> Rocky River, OH
706 posts, read 894,929 times
Reputation: 423
The downtown Seattle building boom is quite impressive...especially in and around the new Amazon as previously stated. I stay in South Lake Union for work about once a month and have witnessed the past 2-3 years being completely transformational. Loving all the cranes and new construction.
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Old 08-24-2015, 01:39 AM
 
Location: Downtown LA
1,192 posts, read 1,230,913 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GatsbyGatz View Post
The majority of the proposals are for residential towers that are cashing in on the Amazon hiring boom (plus Expedia's imminent move near Downtown Seattle). I don't mean to sound like a total Seattle booster, I'm just laying out the economic reality going on here. There is nothing speculative about Seattle's building growth; it is a simple fact that thousands of jobs are being added downtown and therefore it is a guarantee profit return for developers to construct residential towers. These developers are making bank on their residential properties so there is no reason why these proposed residential towers won't get built. Seattle is in a housing shortage and developers are basically striking a goldmine with residential unit construction.
Its not that simple. All the booming cities are having a housing shortage right now. LA for example needs to build 100,000 units per year just to stabilize prices, and we're only building one fifth of that currently. And still I know that half the proposed projects here aren't going to happen.

Some factors to consider:
  1. Developers need financing. Not many of them have the cash on hand to finance projects on their own. Shockwaves in the financial market can therefore affect the likelihood that projects in the pipeline find the financing they need to break ground. And wouldn't you know it, the markets are getting a little bumpy lately, thanks to China.
  2. Developers only build if a project pencils out, i.e. the potential revenue of the project exceeds the cost to build it. Housing shortages mean rapidly rising real estate values. If the purchase price of the lot a developer plans to build on is too high, the project fails to pencil out. Its one thing if you're talking about Manhattan where you can put a 70 story building on a skinny lot and sell $30 million condos-- its going to pencil out no matter how exorbitant a price the developer paid. But lets face it: LA, Seattle and SF are not Manhattan. I already heard through the grapevine about one project here in Downtown LA that just barely penciled out because the price of the lot was so high. And its not like we're talking about a tiny building here, this was a nearly 40 story tower.

TL;DR Don't count your chickens until shovels hit the dirt.
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:25 AM
 
9,593 posts, read 10,942,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DistrictDirt View Post
Its not that simple. All the booming cities are having a housing shortage right now. LA for example needs to build 100,000 units per year just to stabilize prices, and we're only building one fifth of that currently. And still I know that half the proposed projects here aren't going to happen.

Some factors to consider:
  1. Developers need financing. Not many of them have the cash on hand to finance projects on their own. Shockwaves in the financial market can therefore affect the likelihood that projects in the pipeline find the financing they need to break ground. And wouldn't you know it, the markets are getting a little bumpy lately, thanks to China.
  2. Developers only build if a project pencils out, i.e. the potential revenue of the project exceeds the cost to build it. Housing shortages mean rapidly rising real estate values. If the purchase price of the lot a developer plans to build on is too high, the project fails to pencil out. Its one thing if you're talking about Manhattan where you can put a 70 story building on a skinny lot and sell $30 million condos-- its going to pencil out no matter how exorbitant a price the developer paid. But lets face it: LA, Seattle and SF are not Manhattan. I already heard through the grapevine about one project here in Downtown LA that just barely penciled out because the price of the lot was so high. And its not like we're talking about a tiny building here, this was a nearly 40 story tower.

TL;DR Don't count your chickens until shovels hit the dirt.

Very interesting insight. What's your outlook based on the market and what you have heard for the top booming cities being discussed Seattle, LA, DC? Do you see a slowdown in financing for any of these three cities? If so, when do you think it will happen?
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:55 AM
 
Location: Seattle, WA
2,944 posts, read 3,609,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DistrictDirt View Post
Its not that simple. All the booming cities are having a housing shortage right now. LA for example needs to build 100,000 units per year just to stabilize prices, and we're only building one fifth of that currently. And still I know that half the proposed projects here aren't going to happen.

Some factors to consider:


Developers need financing. Not many of them have the cash on hand to finance projects on their own. Shockwaves in the financial market can therefore affect the likelihood that projects in the pipeline find the financing they need to break ground. And wouldn't you know it, the markets are getting a little bumpy lately, thanks to China.
Nearly all of Seattle's develipments are carried out by a handful of very wealthy development firms. What your saying is a bit of a tinfoil hat rant. Please tell us, what do you know of Seattle's firms? Do you know Sellen's financing source?

It's easy enough to rant about how the world economy could crumble tomorrow, but its another thing to actually talk about certain firms with some insight.

Quote:
[*]Developers only build if a project pencils out, i.e. the potential revenue of the project exceeds the cost to build it. Housing shortages mean rapidly rising real estate values. If the purchase price of the lot a developer plans to build on is too high, the project fails to pencil out. Its one thing if you're talking about Manhattan where you can put a 70 story building on a skinny lot and sell $30 million condos-- its going to pencil out no matter how exorbitant a price the developer paid. But lets face it: LA, Seattle and SF are not Manhattan. I already heard through the grapevine about one project here in Downtown LA that just barely penciled out because the price of the lot was so high. And its not like we're talking about a tiny building here, this was a nearly 40 story tower.[/list]
Sorry, but this paragraph is absolute nonsense. "Let's face it: LA, Seattle and SF are not Manhattan." Oh, I guess developers can only make money in NYC then according to you? Lol.

Please provide a source for this statement because it sounds incredibly uninformed. I guess I'm just imagining the fact that entire residential towers get purchased up within a year here by real estate firms, or that all firms are showing a clear profit in their recent developments. Again, you seem to have insight on NYC firms compared to SF and Seattle, tell us, which firms? What is their profit margin?

Last edited by GatsbyGatz; 08-24-2015 at 09:03 AM..
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Old 08-24-2015, 03:15 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
3,250 posts, read 3,492,582 times
Reputation: 2861
Quote:
Originally Posted by GatsbyGatz View Post
Nearly all of Seattle's develipments are carried out by a handful of very wealthy development firms. What your saying is a bit of a tinfoil hat rant. Please tell us, what do you know of Seattle's firms? Do you know Sellen's financing source?
Sellen is not a developer, they are just a construction company. They've only developed like 1-2 small buildings by themselves...
I am not familiar with Seattle real estate myself, but of the few bigger projects I know of, they are being built by Canadian and Miami developers. Normally its just as DistrictDirt described, most of these projects, even the ones being build, are basically barely penciling out. I guarantee you, most developers you see in cities (not named NYC*) are not even financed by traditional banks, but by loans that charge up to like 8% financing. Yes, even 40-50 storey condo towers (especially those!).

*NYC is a bit different for the big projects, the rest of the projects are similar to other cities. The big guys are financed by Wall St and overseas sovereign investment funds that don't care about returns on investment, but are just parking their money in NY real estate as a safe haven.

Last edited by Gantz; 08-24-2015 at 03:25 PM..
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Old 08-25-2015, 12:36 AM
 
Location: Washington State desert
4,732 posts, read 2,959,100 times
Reputation: 3324
Let's boil this down to this...Seattle has 30-40 proposals for new high-rise developments. Many are proposals. Many, if not most, are privately financed. This enough should show that only a handfull of them will ever break ground. Don't get me wrong, Seattle is one of the top cities in projected highrise projects, but some will never be built. The stock market correction doesn't help, but we shall see how that plays out. But I don't think this really changes the Seattle business mindset, unless something else happens that makes it worse. At most, this could simply mean a delay, no more.

Seattle is still among the strongest cities, (along with suburban Bellevue), to complete these projected plans.
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:22 AM
 
Location: Independent Republic of Ballard
6,171 posts, read 4,398,502 times
Reputation: 3885
Development and Construction Projects Map - Downtown SeattleDowntown Seattle

And that's just Downtown. There are scads of luxury apartment complexes being built all over town. I hope they do overbuild, since that'll help to bring the rents down.
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