City-Data Forum 2020 Census extrapolations by state based on 2010-2014 population growth (living, cost, largest)
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08-24-2015, 02:36 AM
 Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife) 12,994 posts, read 17,113,637 times Reputation: 14300

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kingtutaaa Your numbers are off by a little because your not adding each 4 years growth rate into the new total . To get a better picture , take the 4yr growth rate + 1 then rise it to the power of 1.5 . say the 4yr rate was 4.2 so (1.042) to the 1.5 power times the last census total . del growth 4.2% 1.5 conversions 14 census count 935,000 =994,500
Not true. In order to extrapolate a four-year growth trend into a 10-year growth projection, you multiply it by 2.5, and then you add it to the base population number in 2010, not the 2014 number, because you're already including the four-year growth trend into the product. Say there's a state with a population of 10,000,000 in 2010, and it added 400,000 people between 2010 and 2014. That'd give it a population of 10,400,000 by 2014, or an increase of 100,000 per year, but the 2014 population is ultimately unimportant. When you multiply 400,000 by 2.5, you're including the four-year growth trend already, so you'd add the product to the 2010 population of 10,000,000 to get 11,000,000 by 2020. If the state is growing by 100,000 a year, then that adds up to 1,000,000 per decade, but if you add the 1,000,000 on top of the 400,000 in 2014, you'd end up with a population projection of 11,400,000, which doesn't add up, because that's 1,400,000 more than the 2010 population, when it should be 1,000,000 more based on the four-year growth trend.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by atler8 Looking at past patterns & more recent growth rates, it will be a long, long time before Tennessee ever passes New Jersey & Michigan. Think in terms of this happening decades down the road actually. Tennessee's growth so far this decade has not been particularly fast & a struggle as compared to it's neighbors who have Atlantic coast lines. Looking back over the last few decades, the growth of Tennessee has been very uneven as in growing in fits & starts with some lean years causing the irregularity. Other than fast-growing Georgia to it's south/southeast, all of Tennessee's other neighbors to it's south,west & north have also performed in similar patterns & are currently missing out on any sense of the sun belt boom, wherever it is occurring.
Most of the growth in Tennessee is in the Nashville metropolitan area and its satellite cities, including Clarksville and Murfreesboro. The Memphis, Knoxville and Chattanooga metropolitan areas are all growing slower, and the "Tri-Cities" metropolitan area (Bristol, Johnson City, Kingsport) is declining, as are many of the rural counties throughout the state, especially in the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi Delta.

08-24-2015, 07:04 AM
 1,323 posts, read 675,240 times Reputation: 1079
Of course Tennesse should pass Massachusetts, it is a way bigger land area.

08-24-2015, 05:19 PM
 Location: Closer than you think! 2,103 posts, read 3,164,274 times Reputation: 1529
Quote:
 Originally Posted by The_General Of course Tennesse should pass Massachusetts, it is a way bigger land area.
Area doesn't have anything to do with it. It's about population growth in particular. If area had something to do with, Russia and Canada would be the most populated countries on earth.

08-24-2015, 06:46 PM
 Location: Vineland, NJ 8,385 posts, read 9,945,414 times Reputation: 5230
It's almost guaranteed that Pennsylvania will surpass Illinois in population by the 2020 census.

08-24-2015, 07:04 PM
 11,015 posts, read 21,564,064 times Reputation: 10641
Quote:
 Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly It's almost guaranteed that Pennsylvania will surpass Illinois in population by the 2020 census.
Pennsylvania historically was always larger until 2000.

1920: Penn larger by 2,250,000
1940: Penn larger by 2,100,000
1960: Penn larger by 1,250,000
1980: Penn larger by 450,000
2000: Illinois larger by 140,000
2010: Illinois larger by 130,000
2014: Illinois larger by 93,000

Illinois only leaped by it because Penn lost out for the most part on the 90's growth while Illinois grew by 1,000,000. Since then they've both been slow growing.

Illinois up by 460,000 and Penn up by 500,000 since 2000.

08-24-2015, 07:34 PM
 Location: Maryland 3,918 posts, read 5,038,758 times Reputation: 4162
Quote:
 Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly It's almost guaranteed that Pennsylvania will surpass Illinois in population by the 2020 census.
The estimates don't agree, and for a while the two states were growing at virtually the same (very slow) rate. There's no reason to believe anything is guaranteed with growth rates for either.

08-25-2015, 05:41 AM
 1,323 posts, read 675,240 times Reputation: 1079
Quote:
 Originally Posted by cdw1084 Area doesn't have anything to do with it. It's about population growth in particular. If area had something to do with, Russia and Canada would be the most populated countries on earth.
I mean it has something to do with it. Tennessee has two large metros. Most states that don't touch the Atlantic didn't deal with Colonial "stuff". Rhode Island is a state over a church argument. Springfield is in MA because of shipping in the 1700s.

08-25-2015, 10:42 AM
 Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife) 12,994 posts, read 17,113,637 times Reputation: 14300
Quote:
 Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly It's almost guaranteed that Pennsylvania will surpass Illinois in population by the 2020 census.
Doubtful. The natural increase in Illinois is nearly quadruple the natural increase in Pennsylvania, which nearly wipes out the advantage Pennsylvania has over Illinois in net migration. In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state with at least 8,000,000 population that had a natural increase of less than 100,000 between 2010 and 2014:

Ultimately, I believe Pennsylvania will close the gap with Illinois by 2020, but not surpass it. I also believe that both states will eke their way over 13,000,000, because I believe they're both being underestimated (literally). The official 2020 Census will probably be something like 13.05M for Illinois and 13.01M for Pennsylvania.

08-25-2015, 11:56 AM
 Location: Florida 2,233 posts, read 1,382,106 times Reputation: 1855
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi Doubtful. The natural increase in Illinois is nearly quadruple the natural increase in Pennsylvania, which nearly wipes out the advantage Pennsylvania has over Illinois in net migration. In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state with at least 8,000,000 population that had a natural increase of less than 100,000 between 2010 and 2014: Ultimately, I believe Pennsylvania will close the gap with Illinois by 2020, but not surpass it. I also believe that both states will eke their way over 13,000,000, because I believe they're both being underestimated (literally). The official 2020 Census will probably be something like 13.05M for Illinois and 13.01M for Pennsylvania.
Wow. Florida is beating california and Texas in migration.

08-25-2015, 07:07 PM
 Location: Vineland, NJ 8,385 posts, read 9,945,414 times Reputation: 5230
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi Doubtful. The natural increase in Illinois is nearly quadruple the natural increase in Pennsylvania, which nearly wipes out the advantage Pennsylvania has over Illinois in net migration. In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state with at least 8,000,000 population that had a natural increase of less than 100,000 between 2010 and 2014: Ultimately, I believe Pennsylvania will close the gap with Illinois by 2020, but not surpass it. I also believe that both states will eke their way over 13,000,000, because I believe they're both being underestimated (literally). The official 2020 Census will probably be something like 13.05M for Illinois and 13.01M for Pennsylvania.
Either way, the population gap is closing and PA is catching up and it's only 2015. Keep in mind that I said that it's almost guaranteed.
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