Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Keep in mind that I said that it's almost guaranteed.
That was probably the problem, as the census estimates don't agree, necessitating perhaps the opposite of "it's almost guaranteed."
In the end, IL and PA have almost the same population, are both growing very slowly, and there's no indication that either will shoot pass the other in any dramatic manner.
In the end, IL and PA have almost the same population, are both growing very slowly, and there's no indication that either will shoot pass the other in any dramatic manner.
yea, both states suffer from the same problems. What is annoying about PA is that over the past 10 years our wonderful dominate republican party has been promising economic booms from the LNG industry. However that has not came true. PA (Especially Philadelphia) taxes all the wrong things because when everyone was living high on the hog, it didn't matter. How much money do think this rat takes from the energy companys? https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylv...a-250000-jobs/ I don't want to get into a political debate but it is a fact of life in Pennsylvania that the Republicans serve the special interests group and a small minority of the population before they think about governing the 5th biggest state in the country.
There are plenty of families moving to Florida as well. This graph shows 900,000 births and growing in the state.
Yes, but it is a far less number. I think I read somewhere, I will try to find the link, that in half of Florida's counties, the deaths outnumbered the births. With its ability to attract northern retirees, Florida will solidly hold on to the number 3 spot for decades to come. It won't pass Texas or California barring natural disaster, as both of those states still lead Florida in total growth every year. They will continue to pull away from Florida just as it pulls away from New York. There may not be any change in the top 4 spots for 100 years.
Yes, but it is a far less number. I think I read somewhere, I will try to find the link, that in half of Florida's counties, the deaths outnumbered the births. With its ability to attract northern retirees, Florida will solidly hold on to the number 3 spot for decades to come. It won't pass Texas or California barring natural disaster, as both of those states still lead Florida in total growth every year. They will continue to pull away from Florida just as it pulls away from New York. There may not be any change in the top 4 spots for 100 years.
Deaths outnumber births in probably most American counties today. Rural counties have been losing population for generations.
Very often, those northern retirees have children, and those children follow their parents. That is the story of millions of Floridas families.
This is the article I was referencing earlier. It does not talk about the U.S. Birth to death ratio but does specifically talk about Florida's. I think the proof is in the numbers. Florida does have a lot of births, but the birth rate does not match the enormous migration. I tend to believe the article which says the fastest growing communities in Florida are planned retirement communities.
The table above actually indicates there were more births in New York, which seems to support the hypothesis that most of Florida's large domestic migration are northern retirees long past producing children and that they aren't necessarily "being followed by their kids".
Last edited by dynamo fan; 08-27-2015 at 02:59 PM..
Reason: Sentence structure
Ultimately, I believe Pennsylvania will close the gap with Illinois by 2020, but not surpass it. I also believe that both states will eke their way over 13,000,000, because I believe they're both being underestimated (literally). The official 2020 Census will probably be something like 13.05M for Illinois and 13.01M for Pennsylvania.
I'm inclined to agree with this. As much as I'd like to see my own PA knock over IL and regain its rightful position as the nation's fifth-largest state, it probably won't happen until 2025 at the earliest, barring something more extreme happening like Chicago suddenly losing its appeal to migrants or PA finally shedding enough elderly people to have a lower death rate.
I'm inclined to agree with this. As much as I'd like to see my own PA knock over IL and regain its rightful position as the nation's fifth-largest state, it probably won't happen until 2025 at the earliest, barring something more extreme happening like Chicago suddenly losing its appeal to migrants or PA finally shedding enough elderly people to have a lower death rate.
I'm confused. How does PA have the "rightful position" as the fifth-largest state? It either is or, as it stands, isn't, in either population or GDP. Will it make either state better to live in if the suddenly switched places?
I'm confused. How does PA have the "rightful position" as the fifth-largest state? It either is or, as it stands, isn't, in either population or GDP. Will it make either state better to live in if the suddenly switched places?
They probably just mean historically as was pointed out by another poster earlier:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago60614
Pennsylvania historically was always larger until 2000.
1920: Penn larger by 2,250,000
1940: Penn larger by 2,100,000
1960: Penn larger by 1,250,000
1980: Penn larger by 450,000
2000: Illinois larger by 140,000
2010: Illinois larger by 130,000
2014: Illinois larger by 93,000
Illinois only leaped by it because Penn lost out for the most part on the 90's growth while Illinois grew by 1,000,000. Since then they've both been slow growing.
Illinois up by 460,000 and Penn up by 500,000 since 2000.
But you are right that it makes little difference.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
