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Old 09-23-2015, 04:05 PM
 
Location: LoS ScAnDaLoUs KiLLa CaLI
1,227 posts, read 1,189,619 times
Reputation: 1179

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With the American dollar actually strengthening, the relative purchasing power of $1 is actually more now than it was in 2010. This is all very good news for everyone, no matter how you view the CSA/MSA distinction (which to me, is inane in the real world).

Here's a good question: How many PCSA's are going to be trillion dollar economies by 2020? NY and LA are already there. I think SFBA might get there, or be $100 billion short. DC I think will still be a bit short.

I'm hoping for a really big Chicago-Detroit revival where they start booming again.
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Old 09-23-2015, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
905 posts, read 912,030 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lets Eat Candy View Post
With the American dollar actually strengthening, the relative purchasing power of $1 is actually more now than it was in 2010. This is all very good news for everyone, no matter how you view the CSA/MSA distinction (which to me, is inane in the real world).

Here's a good question: How many PCSA's are going to be trillion dollar economies by 2020? NY and LA are already there. I think SFBA might get there, or be $100 billion short. DC I think will still be a bit short.

I'm hoping for a really big Chicago-Detroit revival where they start booming again.
I do want Detriot to boom again. It really hurts me to see a city with so much history fall into disarray the way it has.
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Old 09-23-2015, 04:49 PM
 
105 posts, read 72,585 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
...and The Puget Sound is coming for Metropolitan Atlanta. Nothing more entertaining than seeing two cities sparring for bragging rights. Deal and nem betta wake up. Seattle packing its bags and coming WIT IT!
Seattle is definitely catching up to Atlanta and it is doing so with well over a million fewer people. Seattle is over-achieving here in a big way - probably due to its heavy tech focus. I think Atlanta's economy is more diversified than Seattle's but its varied economic sectors aren't performing on the level of Seattle's single massive tech sector. Atlanta has a decent sized tech sector but I don't think anywhere on the level of Seattle's. That being said, I don't think Atlanta's diversity is a disadvantage. There may be less money moving around overall in a diversified economy, but it would probably be better built to weather economic downturns.

The Great Recession hit Atlanta harder than most other cities (which I know blows up my whole "diversity" point, lol) but I believe it was the over-building of housing / massive mortgage default wave that was the catalyst for Atlanta's downturn. Hopefully moving into the future Atlanta won't be as overly reliant on housing construction as a prop-up for its economy. There is evidence that this is already happening as Atlanta's economy is more mature/diversified now than it was 10 years ago.
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Old 09-23-2015, 04:56 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,617 posts, read 8,273,559 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
Yeah, but there was a time not too long ago when Houston's and Atlanta's economies were the same size.
Actually it was quite a while ago, back in 2001. That's when Atlanta's GDP used to be closer to Washington and Houston. Since then, the Atlanta area's GDP growth has been "fast" but like you mention in a later point, not as fast as places with a specific concentration economically.
Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
Houston and its oil industry took off and left Atlanta in the dust.
Actually this is similar to a point I was making to Spade before you quoted me to start this series of exchanges. I had mentioned that the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplexes economy had already surpassed Houston's in Real GDP (Dallas grew over $40 Billion to Houston's $10 Billion). By next year, Dallas will likely surpass Houston in Nominal GDP too. I also went on to mention that Dallas surpassed Washington D.C. as well this year both by Real GDP and Nominal GDP.

Essentially Houston moves from 4th to 5th, Washington from 5th to 6th, and Dallas jumps from 6th to 4th by Real GDP and by next year the Nominal will be true too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
Should that very same industry collapse, or mostly likely, hiccup, then it could give way to a different picture.
I don't disagree with this assessment. Cities with concentrated economic platforms come with booms and bust cycles, we see this many times through our lives. When its booming it is like things are unstoppable and when its downsizing then it is like hell froze on over.

I lived in Washington, getting there right in the twilight of the boom and when I left things were inexplicably slower than when I first got there. The housing prices were flat in some of the best submarkets although inside the District itself it managed to still increase, the defense contractors were being let go of, and the economy began to stagnate. This is what a down cycle is, things are gradually improving in Washington currently compared to a low point in 2013.
Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
When your economy is proped up on ONE major industry (The Bay Area as an example, just like Houston & Washington) you have that advantage to grow because you have virtually NO competition in that area.
I don't really think any of these cities could really be described as one industry towns though. The San Francisco Bay Area's economy has severely diversified since the Dot Com Bust of the early 2000s. Houston's situation is less optimistic. The region has slowed down significantly since the highs of the oil boom, there's a reason why fast growing Dallas and fast growing Boston re-surpassed it this year in various metrics (Boston: Nominal GDP CSA; Dallas: Real GDP MSA). However one industry Oil and Gas markets around the world, a litmus test to Houston's economic diversity (which so far is cushioning it), other oil heavy markets have proven to contract and enter recession already (meaning for the less diverse oil towns this will be a long affair rather than a quick contraction and correction before a re-start for more economically diverse oil towns). In Alberta, Russia, all over South America (especially Brazil, Venezuela, so on), parts of Oceania, and of course the Middle-East economies have already entered recessions solely due to the Oil Price Crash. Houston's not booming anymore economically, but its economy has branched into a few more industries that cushioned the toll better, that's why it hasn't entered a recession yet (although it might in 2016). Washington's case is also less optimistic than the San Francisco Bay Area. In Washington's case we've seen the impacts from the budget and spending cuts in that Washington had slow to moderate growth with contraction in government and an economy left to propel from secondary industries (service, construction, leisure, education, healthcare). The region's job growth was around 20,000 two years back, this is similar to what Houston will finish with in 2015, and will likely repeat in 2016 (something like 10,000-20,000 jobs translating into a mere $2 Billion or $3 Billion in Nominal GDP growth).

However that doesn't change the concept of huge gaps though. I think, personally speaking, that $200 Billion and $150 Billion, as well as Philadelphia's $100 Billion, and San Francisco/Oakland's $120 Billion lead over Atlanta (as MSAs) is just way too huge of a lead for it to be dealt with in anything less than a decades worth of time and I feel that's still quite possibly being generous to Atlanta by a few years too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
Don't see you ever pointing that out.
This is true. Atlanta probably has a top 3-5 most diverse economy in the country. This helps it cushion blows, but at the same time never gives it any sort of wild $35-40 Billion a year streaks either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
Just be upfront and open about it (your disdain). You ain't got to lie, Craig.
Over recent months this same rhetoric has been applied to me from Atlanta posters, Boston posters, Toronto posters, Chicago posters, and after this post probably Houston posters too. I don't really have a "disdain" in particular for any of these cities. I think some of their posters are incredibly blinded by optimism where a $200 Billion and $150 Billion gap is supposedly easy to overcome, but it doesn't translate into real life hatred for any of these cities.

There are definitely places that I hate though but the closest one to the United States is Rio de Janeiro. Rest are all on the other side of the planet, lots and lots of commie-block filled, cultureless, uniform, authoritarian hellholes and disease ridden third worlds too.
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Old 09-23-2015, 04:58 PM
 
1,353 posts, read 1,209,007 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isawooty View Post
Yeah, but there was a time not too long ago when Houston's and Atlanta's economies were the same size.

Houston and its oil industry took off and left Atlanta in the dust.

Should that very same industry collapse, or mostly likely, hiccup, then it could give way to a different picture.



As I said before, hater. When your economy is proped up on ONE major industry (The Bay Area as an example, just like Houston & Washington) you have that advantage to grow because you have virtually NO competition in that area. Hell even Dallas, which has a million people on Houston and DC still lags behind them. But its economy is also far more diverse than either. Don't see you ever pointing that out. Nope.

But Atlanta tho.

Just be upfront and open about it (your disdain). You ain't got to lie, Craig.
Just want to point out that Houston has a huge medical sector that is completely independent of energy.

Also want to point out that the Bay Area doesn't exceed $700Bn GDP on tech alone. It's a close #2 behind Boston with biotech/life sciences, which is completely independent of tech and has a whole different IPO cycle. It has one of the largest ports in the country and as such is a major import/export/logistics hub. Is undoubtedly a top 3 or 4 finance hub in the US and one of the largest in the world, its financial sector predating its tech sector by over 100 years. And it is home to the 2nd largest concentration of general corporate HQs after NYC...really, neck and neck with Chicago, which has been proclaimed as amazingly diverse. Oh forgot, also a major major energy hub. And major major political hub in this country with an astounding number of federal public workers, state public workers, and obviously local public workers. And eds and meds with a higher education and medical sector that's rivaled by few. With an economy like this, there are also an unbelievable amount of people working in law, real estate, and various financial support services, as well as regulatory agencies, and other support industries. The economic ecoystems of these "one trick pony" cities are amazingly complex, and amazingly large.

Atlanta may be super diversified, but in reality, so are these cities that you say are one trick ponies.
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Old 09-23-2015, 05:52 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
905 posts, read 912,030 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fermie125 View Post
Seattle is definitely catching up to Atlanta and it is doing so with well over a million fewer people. Seattle is over-achieving here in a big way - probably due to its heavy tech focus. I think Atlanta's economy is more diversified than Seattle's but its varied economic sectors aren't performing on the level of Seattle's single massive tech sector. Atlanta has a decent sized tech sector but I don't think anywhere on the level of Seattle's. That being said, I don't think Atlanta's diversity is a disadvantage. There may be less money moving around overall in a diversified economy, but it would probably be better built to weather economic downturns.

The Great Recession hit Atlanta harder than most other cities (which I know blows up my whole "diversity" point, lol) but I believe it was the over-building of housing / massive mortgage default wave that was the catalyst for Atlanta's downturn. Hopefully moving into the future Atlanta won't be as overly reliant on housing construction as a prop-up for its economy. There is evidence that this is already happening as Atlanta's economy is more mature/diversified now than it was 10 years ago.
+1.

Thank you. It's common sense. These other posters trying to make this ish out to be a science.

When you have ONE major industry, you can and will blow past a more diverse region every single time.

Reason why Chicago lags behind San Fran despite having 10 million people.

I'm done with it.
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Old 09-23-2015, 11:56 PM
 
411 posts, read 608,969 times
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Can anyone post growth figures relative to last year and/or since other prior years like 2010 or 2000?
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:57 AM
 
Location: Florida
5,778 posts, read 2,694,175 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Ambitious View Post
I noticed that as well. Way to go Detroit.
So much for the demise of Detroit huh?
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:43 AM
 
595 posts, read 429,094 times
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Interesting.

1. Seattle is now higher (No pun intended) than Miami in both CSA and now MSA?

2. Boston retook the lead over Houston by CSA.

3. DFW passed DC in MSA and is gaining on Houston.

4. Houston did not eat into Chicago's 85B lead in MSA so all that talk about Houston passing Chicago in GDP Had to be put on the backburner.

DFW usually reacts slower than Houston though. When Houston takes a hit, DFW takes a later and less severe hit. When Houston jumps into recovery DFW recovers a little later and less robust.

I think DFW will likely slow down right after it passes Houston but because Houston gains during upswings are larger and earlier than DFW then Houston will regain the lead.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:44 AM
 
11,156 posts, read 22,299,987 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Ambitious View Post
I noticed that as well. Way to go Detroit.
Detroit has all the "bones" and could be primed for growth, it just needs to find the seeds for that growth. The auto market is coming back, I'm sure that's a piece of it.

Detroit:
2010: 6.5% growth
2011: 4.5%
2012: 4.8%
2013: 4.6%
2014: 4.4%

VERY stable and solid growth by the metro, impressive. That's a 27% growth in GDP over 5 years with nearly ZERO population growth. It's just what the metro needed. Get your economy running again, get the unemployment down and don't add any more people during that time. Clean house before inviting more neighbors...

The metro has added over 250,000 jobs in the past five years and reduced unemployment from 17% to 6%.
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