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View Poll Results: Who gets there first?
Boston 6 6.32%
Jersey City 10 10.53%
Minneapolis 18 18.95%
Washington D.C. 53 55.79%
None of them 8 8.42%
Voters: 95. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-01-2017, 10:00 AM
 
7,177 posts, read 3,869,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Haha! Can't wait to repost this when it happens in about 12-13 years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...=.52fa54169d8d
Where is DC going to put these people? DC can't add another hundred thousand people without lifting the height restriction or a major demographic shift towards larger households.
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Old 09-01-2017, 11:12 AM
 
Location: The mountain of Airy
5,145 posts, read 4,986,937 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
Where is DC going to put these people? DC can't add another hundred thousand people without lifting the height restriction or a major demographic shift towards larger households.
The idea of projecting based on current trends is faulty at best. Not saying DC could not make it to 1M, but what has been happening is not necessarily indicative of what will happen. This comment in that article says it best:

Quote:
DC growing to 972,000 is an annual growth rate of 1.2%, almost double that of the overall US growth rate of 0.7%.

It is hard to believe any prediction 30 years out. Looking to the past, nobody was predicting the population surge we have now. And fundamentally population follows the economy, which is the most uncertain thing of all. Most assuredly something will happen to upend the current trends in the next 30 years -- the political winds change, a war, economic disruption.

This prediction is for amusement only.
One thing is sure. Newspaper writers are mostly lazy, lacking some real critical thought.
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Washington, DC
639 posts, read 740,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
Where is DC going to put these people? DC can't add another hundred thousand people without lifting the height restriction or a major demographic shift towards larger households.
In addition to the 13,000 units under construction right now, DC has 50,000 units in the planning stages. This is all within current zoning. DC's average household size is stable and has even ticked up slightly since 2010.

Also, single family rowhomes are being subdivided into anywhere from 2 to 6 units. This is happening at a blistering pace. When you have a thousand or two thousand single family row homes converting to 4-unit apartment and condo buildings, then those numbers become meaningful. So, that is a factor as well in overall future capacity.

In addition to the aforementioned 63,000 units yet to come online, there is even still more room for redevelopment of underdeveloped and vacant land. The DC Office of Planning did a land analysis study on this very topic a few years back, and the amount of capacity is much more than what people think it is.

DC will reach its historic population high, but I estimate overall capacity at greater than 1 million.

Last edited by revitalizer; 09-01-2017 at 01:23 PM..
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:03 PM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
3,458 posts, read 2,998,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
Where is DC going to put these people? DC can't add another hundred thousand people without lifting the height restriction or a major demographic shift towards larger households.
DC is not full yet, nor is it the only high cost city with a young single population. Most growing cities are like this. By the 2020 census, DC will have around 710,000 with the track that it is on. That leaves only 92k remaining before it matches it's all time peak of 802k. Which would mean the city added 140k in the past 20 years going back to 2000. No way it doesn't at least match another 92k in another 15-20 years.

Now I agree on the height limits being ridiculous in DC, but 800k is definitely a foregone conclusion even IF there was a slow down. I'm not as bullish on 1 million without raising height limits however, I could see and be comfortable with a decent slowdown around 850k.

Also realize that although DC does not have "skyscrapers", residential "high rise"(8-12 or 13 stories) construction across city wide, is more than the average American city. Washington has 8-12 story residential buildings throughout all four quadrants of the city, that are by no means small buildings with regards to amount of units. Outside of the downtown core in DC you will see taller buildings than many American cities would 5 miles from Downtown lets say. As "small" as it is, Washington DC is still 20th in population at only 61 sq mi of land, and that says a lot. Of the cities in front of it, all of them get it done with more land mass, except for San Francisco.
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Galewood
3,626 posts, read 8,390,854 times
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Jersey City, as NYC becomes more expensive people will look for other options that are affordable yet still close.
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:20 PM
 
786 posts, read 790,847 times
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definitely Jersey City
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Old 09-02-2017, 07:05 AM
 
Location: (six-cent-dix-sept)
3,967 posts, read 1,938,119 times
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does boston include cambridge and somerville (which actually have higher historical population density) ? if not then its always going to be an uphill battle. e.g.- i would think that half the student population lives there.
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Old 09-02-2017, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Portland, Maine
443 posts, read 399,238 times
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No that is just the original city limit population at its peak. I think Boston can do it, but it will take a long time. I think what will get Boston there is that the empty lots in the entire city are slowly being filled with multi-family residences either condos or apartments and when older buildings are replaced they are almost always replaced with higher density buildings. Although Boston does have a lot of constraints for development I do think it will manage to make it back to it's peak population anyways.
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Old 09-02-2017, 07:44 AM
 
9,585 posts, read 10,917,416 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
No chance DC gets there. They have the tightest building restrictions and singles/childless couples are displacing larger families. Jersey City is the only city that will reclaim peak population.
DC will reach peak population around 2030. The city is adding between 10k-12k people per year. DC is also absorbing around 20% of the metropolitan growth every year which was not the case from 1960-2010. DC has enough room with existing zoning to surpass 1,000,000 people. The land in 20019, 20020, and 20032 can accommodate another 200,000 people alone.
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Old 09-02-2017, 08:03 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
3,504 posts, read 2,728,798 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefox View Post
Math points to D.C. but I'm going to go out on a limb and say MPLS. 0% growth from 2000-2010, 8.1% growth just from 2010-2016. That's actually quite a remarkable shift. If that momentum keeps up I can see it getting there before the rest.
Yea, I view MPLS as the dark horse candidate of the four. The other three had small/ moderate growth between 2000-2010, while MPLS was stagnant. It's recent explosive growth puts it back in the fold, just behind Boston in growth rate. It has about 20,000 less people to add than D.C. or Boston, so that is in its favor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyMac18 View Post
I'm surprised so few are voting for Jersey City. I don't love that city, but its recent growth has been pretty impressive. And it doesn't have that far to get to its historical high.
Quote:
Originally Posted by That_One_Guy View Post
This is exactly what is happening there. JC is exploding with new highrises. It's actually kind of insane. Developers in JC are really taking advantage of those sweet Manhattan views.

I think it's between JC and DC
Quote:
Originally Posted by ccm123 View Post
Dc.
I initially thought DC would get there first, and it still has a very strong case. But Jersey City has something like 34,000 housing units currently under construction and is right across the river from NYC. Given New York's size and consistent numerical growth, JC is primed to receive a lot of spillover. It also only needs about 50,000 people to get there.

But who knows? Population growth is a tricky thing to predict and there are so many unknown and unpredictable factors. I voted JC, but anything can happen to any of these cities, good or bad.

Last edited by qworldorder; 09-02-2017 at 08:11 AM..
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