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Old 02-21-2019, 11:25 PM
 
102 posts, read 120,516 times
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I know there have been multiple GDP posts on here, but I wanted to look at a different aspect, and one I don't recall seeing on here (at least for the latest numbers). That is breaking down the GDP change by metro since 2015 per person.

I charted this for every metro, but will only focus on the ones with 1 million people or more. Here is how each ranks in how much current dollar GDP they've gained per person since 2015 (using estimates from the census bureau for population).

1. San Jose - $17,488 (2015 GDP was 237.832 in billions, population was 1.977 million; 2017 GDP was 275.293, population was 1.999 million)

2. San Francisco - $10,356
3. Seattle - $7,148
4. Austin - $6,427
5. Nashville - $5,874
6. Los Angeles - $5,357
7. Boston - $5,339
8. San Diego - $5,085
9. Indianapolis - $5,077
10. Cleveland - $5,026
11. Pittsburgh - $4,976
12. Charlotte - $4,729
13. Atlanta - $4,557
14. New York - $4,474
15. Chicago - $4,437
16. Baltimore - $4,431
17. Portland - $4,169
18. Detroit - $4,107
19. Cincinnati - $4,035
20. Philadelphia - $3,986
21. San Antonio - $3,916
22. Salt Lake City - $3,876
23. Milwaukee - $3,865
24. Denver - $3,744
25. Miami - $3,621
26. Minneapolis - $3,521
27. Columbus - $3,402
28. Richmond - $3,400
29. Jacksonville - $3,344
30. Dallas - $3,099
31. Sacramento - $3,093
32. Grand Rapids - $2,991
33. Raleigh - $2,852
34. Buffalo - $2,805
35. Washington D.C. - $2,782
36. Phoenix - $2,675
37. Birmingham - $2,619
38. Louisville - $2,576
39. Providence - $2,481
40. Riverside - $2,266
41. St. Louis - $2,080
42. Virginia Beach - $1,925
43. Tucson - $1,877
44. Las Vegas - $1,865
45. Tampa - $1,743
46. Rochester (N.Y). - $1,688
47. Orlando - $1,307
48. Kansas City - $1,257
49. Oklahoma City - $832
50. New Orleans - (-)$230
51. Memphis - (-)$1,217
52. Houston - (-)$3,150

To be transparent, I chose 2015 (3-year data) because that is when Cleveland's economy started to take off. Still, I think measuring GDP growth per person, while not the end all, still is probably a better indicator of economic strength than strictly just looking at total gains (and not taking population growth into account).

With that, some of my thoughts (I went into this not knowing what to expect):

1. California's big metros are killing it, especially the Bay Area. They are all seeing population growth, but the GDP is still outpacing that, especially at the top (San Diego was a surprise for me).

2. Austin and Nashville deserve their accolades. Like the California metros, they are booming in population and booming in GDP per person as well.

3. Cleveland and Pittsburgh are coming back (and Indianapolis, while seeing solid growth, is also looking very good). For Cleveland and Pittsburgh, though, these two legacy, rust-belt metros are seeing significant economic growth despite being flat in population gain. Both also offer top-10 amenities, solid wages and low costs of living.

4. All the large metros have gained in GDP and most are keeping up with their populations, in varying degrees.

5. Of the three net-negative metros, Houston is an anomaly because it always has been a boom or bust economy, and it's still seeing an insane amount of population growth. New Orleans still has a lot going for it in that it is such an unique area that will always have its draw (barring another Katrina). Memphis, though, seems like it's in trouble seeing that it doesn't have as much legacy draw and it now is directly competing with the booming Nashville a couple hours away.

I plan on updating this when the 2018 numbers come out, so it will be interesting to see what kind of shifting takes place.
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Old 02-22-2019, 07:16 AM
 
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Indy takes a lot of crap on this forum but its economy is rather strong and here it is tops in the Midwest.
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Old 02-22-2019, 07:23 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post

3. Cleveland and Pittsburgh are coming back (and Indianapolis, while seeing solid growth, is also looking very good). For Cleveland and Pittsburgh, though, these two legacy, rust-belt metros are seeing significant economic growth despite being flat in population gain. Both also offer top-10 amenities, solid wages and low costs of living.
Great stuff. Sports rivalries aside, I think these two cities should really consider working together more closely (and I say this as a huge Pittsburgh fan.) How they do that I'm not sure, but being only 2.5 hours away I could honestly see it becoming one metro area in a few decades if they become more connected.
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Old 02-22-2019, 08:34 AM
 
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Surprised Minneapolis is ranked so low.
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Old 02-22-2019, 08:49 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLawMan View Post
Great stuff. Sports rivalries aside, I think these two cities should really consider working together more closely (and I say this as a huge Pittsburgh fan.) How they do that I'm not sure, but being only 2.5 hours away I could honestly see it becoming one metro area in a few decades if they become more connected.
I donít just because Youngstown between them is still losing population quickly. Even cities that are 90 minutes apart rarely become one region.

Boston-Hartford, Rochester-Buffalo, the limit seems to be 45ish miles. (Outside of the West where Really large counties skew it)
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:16 PM
 
Location: In the heights
21,146 posts, read 22,661,324 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLawMan View Post
Great stuff. Sports rivalries aside, I think these two cities should really consider working together more closely (and I say this as a huge Pittsburgh fan.) How they do that I'm not sure, but being only 2.5 hours away I could honestly see it becoming one metro area in a few decades if they become more connected.
I put this in greater detail here, but one thing that can help and has an actual fighting chance of happening is actual usable train service between Pittsburgh and Cleveland. The two cities do have Amtrak service, but it's on the sometimes delayed, due to its length of time shared with freight services, Capitol Limited service which reaches both cities very late at night. It's pretty unusable as it is now, but the Pennsylvania Senate passed a resolution to study more adding two more runs to the one-round-trip-a-day Pennsylvanian train service as well as extending it to Cleveland (and possibly further).

From the current Capitol Limited timetables, the Pittsburgh to Cleveland stretch is one of the few city pairs that are currently comparable in time even with the US's current dismal train lines to driving and both have their Amtrak stations within potential service of their inner city rail services. Those inner city rail services to the stations are understandably not really highlighted with Cleveland's being a flag stop where you need to ask to get off or on or Pittsburgh's being only used on special occasions due to single tracking, but if there actually comes to pass multiple services between Cleveland and Pittsburgh during actually usable hours, then the inner city rail systems of each can adjust to have regularly scheduled service to the stations shortly before and after the trains's scheduled stops.

If the former route via Youngstown instead of Alliance can be used without impacting travel time, then it'd be great if that were the route used.

I don't think they'll be one metropolitan area anytime in our lifetimes--that distance usually takes a massive megacity to do so and not even the more closely located and larger NYC and Philadelphia or Los Angeles to San Diego pairs have done so, but they can certainly become a much more integrated greater region.

In a rail network that has good service among major cities of certain population sizes and distances where rail has generally worked out for other countries, Cleveland and Pittsburgh are both located in potentially great nodes. It's just too bad that Ohio ultimately rejected the funding for the 3C line which would have been a massively useful stimulus for the time when it was released for use and was oddly prescient given the downtown investments and the advent of a lot of "last mile" solutions like rideshares that came in the years shortly after.

Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-22-2019 at 03:28 PM..
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Polish Hill, Pittsburgh, PA
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Count me in as someone who would like to see more cooperation between Pittsburgh/Western PA (WPA) and Cleveland/NE Ohio (NEO).

As it stands now the Youngstown/Warren area is, unfortunately, sharting the bed, so to speak, but it truly is just about equidistant to both major metro areas. I love day-tripping in the Youngstown area, and I love seeing a roughly even mixture of Steelers and Browns flags/decorations in yards in Boardman and Austintown (naturally OSU is strong here---Penn State not so much). You see OH license plates constantly in/around Pittsburgh, and I'm sure Clevelanders on here can affirm that we PA license plate-holders are also clogging up their roadways.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh are working hard to reinvent themselves. Pittsburgh has a larger swath of its city in terms of square mileage that is gentrifying vs. Cleveland; however, Cleveland has many wonderful middle-class streetcar suburbs that Pittsburgh sorely lacks. I also like how Greater Cleveland seems to be more racially-mixed. With rare exception Pittsburgh is still very segregated along racial lines. Pittsburgh is more of an "it" city for tech, at the moment, with Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Google, UBER (autonomous vehicle research), Ford Argo AI (autonomous vehicle research), the National Robotics Engineering Center, etc. having growing presences here, leading to rapidly rising rents in the desirable parts of the city.

I also agree that Indianapolis gets crucified on this forum because it's not as "urban" in terms of built form as it should perhaps be for a city of its large stature; however, its economy is very strong, as seen above. Good job, Indianapolis!
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:07 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
775 posts, read 241,201 times
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Harvey would explain most of Houston’s drop.
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:52 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
Harvey would explain most of Houstonís drop.
More so oil's cratering since 2014 but, yes, Harvey is surely a factor too.
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Old 02-23-2019, 02:39 AM
 
102 posts, read 120,516 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
I donít just because Youngstown between them is still losing population quickly. Even cities that are 90 minutes apart rarely become one region.

Boston-Hartford, Rochester-Buffalo, the limit seems to be 45ish miles. (Outside of the West where Really large counties skew it)
Or simply Cleveland and Akron not being in the same metro (30 miles apart and being in adjacent counties).

Though if you look at at a map of all the individual metro areas between Cleveland and Pittsburgh, it is a giant contiguous blob stretching from Cleveland, to Akron, to Canton, across to Youngstown, into Western Pennsylvania, along the Ohio River on the West Virginia panhandle and down to Morgantown. In that respect, there is a huge contiguous, but undefined, region of about 7 million that still, land wise, would fit within some of those gigantic western counties.
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