What will be the first metro area to hit 10 million? (Boston, market)

[blkgiraffe]

Originally Posted by Spade

It's a little bit skewed, don't you think. Because most of Dallas and Tarrant counties are built whereas much of Harris County is not and probably never will be. Well, at least I hope. There are points where you enter Harris County and you wouldn't believe you are about to enter a big city. I don't get that vibe for Dallas and Tarrant county.

In addition to that. People need to understand that Texas counties are unusually larger than the counties in the Eastern US. While many of those 12 counties are in fact in the DFW MSA or CSA or 10 counties are in the MSA or CSA. Much of those counties are not built up and cannot be built on. So while DFW is 10,000 sq miles. I wouldn't be surprised if only 6,000 or 7,000 of that is only built up. Still much larger than Philly. But just to show the relevance of it.

Exactly. People look at the large land sizes and quickly acknowledge it without even remembering that lots of that land isn't built up.

[terrence81]

I voted for Atlanta even though I think its a stretch. Atlanta just keeps growing so if anyone can do it I'm sure Atlanta could. At the same time the recession has definitely slowed down the sunbelt. I will say that Texas has weathered the recession better than places like Atlanta and Miami so maybe Texas will be the place for growth in 20 years. From my understanding population growth in Phoenix is slowing down due to the recession.

Honestly I hope none of these places reaches 10 million. I don't think they could handle it. I know Atlanta couldn't. I think Philly is better equipped and dense enough to handle the population increase better than Atlanta or Miami. Phoenix doesn't have enough water. I wonder if Dallas and Houston have enough water too. While Lake Lanier has its problems they could find other sources of water in Georgia. Miami not so much unless they start desalinizing the Atlantic. Which may be the only way for the west to continue adding more people soon.

[justme02]

Originally Posted by Spade

It's a little bit skewed, don't you think. Because most of Dallas and Tarrant counties are built whereas much of Harris County is not and probably never will be. Well, at least I hope. There are points where you enter Harris County and you wouldn't believe you are about to enter a big city. I don't get that vibe for Dallas and Tarrant county.

I dont think it is skewed. Drive on Highway 114 just west of DFW airport and all you will see is bales of hay and cows and youre in Tarrant county. You can get the same feeling in the Southeastern or Southwestern parts of Dallas county, or the western part of Tarrant County. I think its a great comparrison. Houston is more dense indeed, but I think the comparrison is a good one. You still have the same amount of land and about the same amount of people even though maybe the are distributed differently. DFW is more spread out in Dallas county than Houston is in Harris county (making it more dense).

[justme02]

Originally Posted by rainrock

I stand corrected. I was thinking of Allentown's msa not Readings.Although in a roundabout way this helps prove my point as both areas are closer to Philadephia than Dallas is to FW.

Here are the connecting msa's adjacent to Philly. These areas surrounding and including Phillys msa would fit in DFW metro with room to spare.


MSA's
Philadelphia 5,800,000
Allentown PA-800,000
Lancaster PA- 500,000
Reading PA- 400,000
Trenton NJ 400,000
Atlantic City NJ-300,000
Vineland/Bridgeton NJ 200,000
Dover De- 200,000

Philly's cmsa with some minor legislation and regional agreement is currently 8,800,000. Dallas wont be at 10 M before Philadelphia.

Minor Legislation???

I dont know if youve seen a map of the state, but Allentown is about double the distance from Philly that Dallas is from Fort Worth (about 62 miles). Lancaster is about 70 miles away. Reading is also 60 miles away. Atlantic City is also 60 miles away. Hell, Dover is 80 miles away.

I have no idea why you think these areas should be apart of the Philly MSA and I very much doubt that a significant number of these residents commute in (unless they are sadists).

Bear in mind too, we are not talking about one side of the MSA to the other side of the MSA distance, we are talking about distance to the princlple center of the MSA. Thats why the notion of those MSA's being in the Philly MSA is laughable. Philly only has one center where as DFW has two. That makes it easier for people to commute, and thats not the census peoples fault.

If you think Delta county is so far from Dallas that it shouldnt be counted in the MSA, for your arguement, you can take out the less than 6,000 people who live there. That being said, the largest town that in the DFW MSA that has people commuteing in is Greenville in Hunt county and its 50 miles away from downtown Dallas. If you dont want to include Hunt county for your arguement, fine take out the 75,000 people who live in Hunt County. Except for Delta county, none of these places are as far away from downtown Philly as the ones youve mentioned. That would be like if DFW included the Waco and Tyler MSA's in with DFW. In Delta county, there isnt much going on, so people might have to commute to Dallas which is why it could have shown up on the DFW MSA.

Yet even with those counties out, DFW still is larger than the Philly MSA.

Once again, DFW will be at 10 million before Philly. Also the rate of growth of the DFW MSA is about 6 times faster.

[waronxmas]

This is really going to be a race between Atlanta, Houston and Dallas. I give the edge to Dallas only because of the 1 million+ lead they have on both Hou and Atl.

Phoenix will hit water limits soon enough and I think of all the cities on the poll will have the hardest time recovering from the recession. BTW, for those who are ready to bring up Atlanta's water problems those are in the past. The drought is over. Atlanta is not in a desert. Got it?

Miami I don't think will ever get there. They are constrained by the swamps and no one in their right mind will bulldoze them again. The only option they have to significantly boost their population is tear down whole sections of the metro and replace the SFHs with high rises. This will happen on a small scale, but I think we are seeing the upper limits of how much population the area can support physically.

Philly, while nice, doesn't have any data to show that it will ever get much larger than it is now.

[rainrock]

Originally Posted by LAnative10

I dont know if youve seen a map of the state, but Allentown is about double the distance from Philly that Dallas is from Fort Worth (about 62 miles). Lancaster is about 70 miles away. Reading is also 60 miles away. Atlantic City is also 60 miles away. Hell, Dover is 80 miles away.

But 4 M people live between Philadelphia and Allentown and the 2 msa's are just about connected, the only reason the areas arent already part of the same metro is the fact that Allentown probably wants to keep its own identity and independence.. The same goes for Reading,Trenton,and Vineland.Of The examples that I used Lancaster and Atlantic City may be a stretch to be included in Phillys msa although AC's msa is only a stones throw from the eastern most portion of Phillys msa less than 15 miles of land. . The southern part of metro Philly(new Castle De) connects to Dovers msa, despite the distance its not outlandish that Dover could be apart of metro Philly..

I'll stand by my point that if Philadelphia was allowed the same geographical metro boundaries as Dallas, if it were allowed the same pull and drawing power as Dallas's msa it would have 8,800,000 people compared to Dallas's 6,300,000. The Hunt County TX to Parker County TX expanse is 150 miles. Allentown to Atlantic City is 120 miles.

Once again Dallas metro is 9,200 sq miles and Phillys is shoe boxed at 3,900 sq. miles. Granted alot of those 9200 sq miles is unoccupied land but you cant tell me more people commute and reside within 50 miles of Dallas than they do 50 miles of Philadlephia.

I'm moreso arguing that Dallas's metro is bloated than phillys is shortchanged.

[justme02]

Originally Posted by rainrock

But 4 M people live between Philadelphia and Allentown and the 2 msa's are just about connected. The same goes for Reading,Trenton,and Vineland.Of The examples that I used Lancaster and Atlantic City may be a stretch to be included in Phillys msa. The southern part of metro Philly(new Castle De) connects to Dovers msa.

I'll stand by my point that if Philadelphia was allowed the same geographical metro boundaries as Dallas, if it were allowed the same pull and drawing power as Dallas's msa it would have 8,800,000 people compared to Dallas's 6,300,000. The Hunt County TX to Parker County TX expanse is 150 miles. Allentown to Atlantic City is 120 miles.

I'm moreso arguing that Dallas's metro is bloated than phillys is shortchanged.

It soenst matter what the distance from Hunt county to Parker county is because thats not where people are commuting to. What matters is the distance of these communities to either Dallas or Fort Worth. Thats what makes the MSA, the primary cities not the secondary cities. In the eyes of the census beureau, its all about the economy and commutes. Hunt county relies heavily on the DFW economy where as Allentown and Atlantic city dont rely on the Philly economy.

Remember, Distance doesnt make the MSA, niether does square mileage. Take a look at the Los Angeles MSA map. Downtown Los Angeles to the edge of Riverside county is 250 miles while its over 300 miles to the edge of San Bernadino county. But these areas are so heavily unpopulated that its irrelevant. The same goes with alot of the area around the metroplex.

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by rainrock

Once again Dallas metro is 9,200 sq miles and Phillys is shoe boxed at 3,900 sq. miles. Granted alot of those 9200 sq miles is unoccupied land but you cant tell me more people commute and within 50 miles of Dallas than they do 50 miles of Philadlephia.

Therein lies another interesting caveat of this business of metro and combined metro boundaries, they don't have to commute all the way to Dallas proper or even Dallas County. They could be commuting to the Dallas MSA County closest to them.

We have something similar here. San Joaquin county currently sends 50,000 commuters to the Bay Area-and not too many are actually going all the way to SF(65 miles away). No, most are going to suburban office parks in the outer Bay Area.

Adding Stockton(I estimate sometime between 2010-2012) will push the Bay Area over 8 Million.

[rainrock]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Therein lies another interesting caveat of this business of metro and combined metro boundaries, they don't have to commute all the way to Dallas proper or even Dallas County. They could be commuting to the Dallas MSA County closest to them.

We have something similar here. San Joaquin county currently sends 50,000 commuters to the Bay Area-and not too many are actually going all the way to SF(65 miles away). No, most are going to suburban office parks in the outer Bay Area.

Adding Stockton(I estimate sometime between 2010-2012) will push the Bay Area over 8 Million.

You're going to give me a stroke. Its bad enough I have to deal with this limitless dallas metro shenanigans,
please dont get me started with this Bay Area propoganda too.

If you didnt know any better one might believe that Philadlephia doesnt have healthy suburban counties that grow,intertwine, and draw-in adjacent counties just like Dallas and SF? What do you have to do, who do you have to know to play this game of adding population and area to your metro? Philadephia wants to know.

[waronxmas]

Can we just clear the record and state these irrefutable facts:

1. Cities don't get to decided which MSA they are a part of.
2. MSA are designated primarily along economic and commuting patterns.

Anything else is just wishful thinking.