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View Poll Results: Do you think NYC will still be the largest city in 2050?
Yes 626 81.51%
No 142 18.49%
Voters: 768. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-07-2010, 10:42 AM
Location: Southwest Michigan/Miami Beach Miami
1,949 posts, read 2,743,961 times
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1. NYC
2. LA
3. Chicago
4. Houston
5. Philly/Dallas

It will pretty much stay the same..
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Old 08-20-2010, 11:30 AM
Location: You Already Know: San Diego!
377 posts, read 951,773 times
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Here is my tops in the year of 2050.

10 City Propers
1. New York City 10,000,000
2. Los Angeles 5,150,000
3. Houston 3,650,000
4. Chicago 3,350,000
5. Phoenix 2,700,000
6. San Antonio 2,150,000
7. San Diego 1,950,000
8. Dallas 1,900,000
9. Philadelphia 1,850,000
10. Las Vegas 1,700,000

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Old 08-24-2010, 08:36 PM
Location: You Already Know: San Diego!
377 posts, read 951,773 times
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Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
My Guess for the Top 10.
New York 9.5 Million
Los Angeles 6.0 Million
Houston 4.0 Million
Chicago 3.3 Million
Phoenix 3.0 Million
San Antonio 2.4 Million
Dallas 2.3 Million
Las Vegas 2.0 Million
San Diego 1.8 Million
Philadelphia 1.6 Million
San Diego at 1.8 million? And I doubt Vegas will get in that fast. Again, my list, but with 2010, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2100 in order by 2010 predictions .

1. New York 8.4m, 9.1m, 9.6m, 10.0m, 14.2m
2. Los Angeles 4.1m, 4.6m, 5.1m, 5.5m, 7.5m
3. Chicago 2.9m, 3.3m, 3.4m, 3.6m, 4.4m
4. Houston 2.4m, 2.7m, 3.1m, 3.5m, 4.5m
5. Phoenix 1.6m, 1.9m, 2.1m, 2.3m, 3.4m
6. Philadelphia 1.55m, 1.6m, 1.8m, 1.9m, 2.1m
7. San Antonio 1.4m, 1.7m, 1.9m, 2.1m, 3.0m
8. San Diego 1.35m, 1.6m, 1.8m, 1.9m, 2.2m
9. Dallas 1.3m, 1.5m, 1.7m, 1.9m, 2.1m
10. San Jose 1.0m, 1.4m, 1.5m, 1.7m, 1.9m

San Diego can keep over Dallas for at least 90 more years.
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Old 08-25-2010, 09:45 AM
1,250 posts, read 2,109,647 times
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I just see a lot of this is basically extrapolating current trends for a city to continue for another 40 years. My guess is that the populations listed are going to be overshot especially in the Southwest. (though annexations are a wild card) One of the reasons is immigration is going to be much lower than in the past. Related to that birth rates will drop and overall population growth nationally has a strong likelyhood of being near zero.

One major risk for urban areas is going to be the next few years. If economic troubles persist and especially if another recession hits driving unemployment towards 15% or so, there might be severe problems in cities. One consequence is that lower educated people would have much higher unempoyment numbers and could eventually turn towards crime. I do have concern that things are being set up for both a spike in crime and racial issues bubbling up in cities. Those two were key factors in flight from cities in the past and if they return it could grind urban redevelopment to a halt.
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Old 09-10-2010, 02:48 PM
228 posts, read 336,007 times
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Originally Posted by Spire View Post
I thought it would be interesting to see what people think the 5 largest United States cities will be in 2050. Post populations and comments as to why you feel this way, don't just order them off in a list!

1. New York, New York
Population: 9,400,000
I don't see anything passing New York by 2050. I know some people are going to say the city will be well over 10,000,000 by then, but I don't see anywhere for NYC to grow. Growing up takes so much time and money that I just don't see it happening.

2. Los Angeles, California
Population: 5,000,000
I think the growth L.A has experienced is going to start to slow down as Hispanic Immigrants become more and more "Americanized".

3. Chicago, Illinois
Population: 3,800,000
Chicago's population has the reputation for going up, and then falling right back down, but with Urban living making a comeback, I think it will keep a slight lead over Houston.

4. Houston, Texas
Population: 3,600,000
Houston is the perfect location for some, it offers suburban living in a major city. I think this will still be appleaing to many people come 2050.

5. Philadelphia, Pennslyvania
Population: 2,100,000
I think the spot for number five is going to be a battle. It will be VERY close between Pheonix, Philadelphia, and San Diego, but I hope Philadelphia can pull through and win it.
Chicago reached 3.6 million in 1950 and has decreased steadily since.
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Old 09-10-2010, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by pw72 View Post
True...the Chicago metro is something like 10 million. No question it is #3 in the US in metro, and probably will be for many decades to come.
DFW will surpass Chicago before Houston!

Other cities' struggles highlight North Texas' appeal

[SIZE=2]08:15 AM CDT on Monday, March 15, 2010
By Cheryl Hall / The Dallas Morning News[/SIZE]
Economist Michael Cox has a slogan to suggest if you're trying to attract talented workers from either coast: Move here and get a free BMW.
It's not false advertising, says the former chief economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who's now at Southern Methodist University.
Most professionals working in the Northeast and California pay the equivalent of a year's worth of expensive car payments in annual personal income tax which we don't have.
But we don't need an ad campaign to encourage immigration to North Texas.
Every year for the last three years, Dallas-Fort Worth has added a Little Rock to our population, Cox says. Maintain that annual increase of 165,000 for three years, and we will have "annexed" a San Jose, Calif., since 2007.
"Every six years, we add a million people," says Cox, who heads the O'Neil Center for Global Markets and Freedom at SMU. "That's unbelievable. When they lose their jobs in Cleveland, they say, 'OK, let's pack up and move to Dallas.' "
If population trends continue, we'll replace Chicago as the third-largest metropolitan area in 20 years, if not sooner, Cox says.
Why here? Why now?

"The world has fallen in our lap," he says. "We're a service-based economy. We're perfectly poised for growth domestically. Now we have global growth through technology that enables us to be the 'it' economy."
Think of Texas as the target, attracting individuals and companies fleeing high taxes, faltering economies and sky-high costs. For every dollar a person or company makes in most of the Northeast or California, the state grabs about 10 cents in taxes. Texas lets you keep the full dollar.
Now think of Dallas-Fort Worth as the bull's-eye. More than any other Texas metro area, Dallas-Fort Worth has tied its future to foreign economies with large populations, fast-growing workforces and increasing wages.
For decades, we've been telling ourselves how smart we are to live here. We have hot weather. But we also have air conditioning.
"You don't have to shovel heat," says John Holt, chief executive of Dallas-based SWS Group's banking subsidiary, Southwest Securities FSB.
Cox developed a following during his 25 years at the Dallas Fed. For 10 of those, he was the chief economist guiding the bank's policy with his economic analysis.
With the help of others, Cox developed a critical index used by the entire Federal Reserve System. The "spaghetti index" tracks employment ups and downs in each of the 12 Fed districts.
"I would have preferred to have called it the Cox index, but others at the Fed thought it looked like a bowl of spaghetti," he says.
Since taking over as director of the O'Neil Center, Cox has spent two years crunching statistics, devising new formulas, reformulating old ones, and analyzing demographic and employment trends for a major presentation about D-FW as the "it" economy.
Using more than 100 slides, Cox sets out to prove that home and Oz are one and the same.
Tom Leppert has seen Cox's hourlong presentation and buys the thesis which is natural since he's the mayor of Dallas. But he says he believed similar arguments when he moved here with the headquarters of Turner Corp. in late 1999. You know: central location, outstanding airport, low-cost economy, quality of life.
OK, we're a little short on oceans and mountains, says Leppert, who moved here from Hawaii. But from his experience, Dallas turned out to be a "hard-to-beat place" to run an international business and raise a family.
"All of the pieces have been here for years," Leppert says. "But our advantages have been magnified because other areas of the country have gone in the wrong direction."
Global economy

Forbesmagazine cites "tortuous commutes and nose-bleed-inducing taxes" as reasons why New York and Chicago made its just-released 2010 list of America's 20 most miserable cities. Philadelphia; Sacramento and Modesto, Calif.; Miami; and a host of economically hammered Midwestern cities also made the list.
So why is Dallas-Fort Worth coming into its own?
Globalization and technology, Cox says. We've developed the goods and services that the New Economy wants.
Although Houston has one more Fortune 500 company than D-FW, revenue from foreign sales by Houston's largest corporations was less than half of the $387.3 billion generated abroad by those based in North Texas in 2008.
For example, Texas Instruments Inc. sold nearly 90 percent of its products abroad. Foreign sales accounted for nearly half of everything Kimberly-Clark Corp. produced.
The thrust of the global economy for several decades will be powered by services, Cox predicts. Unlike energy-centric Houston, our diversified economy has created a diversified service sector.
The Internet allows professional, information technology and financial services to be traded around the world. And we have those.
D-FW interior designers, architects and engineering companies design royal palaces, resorts and even amusement parks in the Middle East, casinos in Macau, skyscrapers in Europe and manufacturing plants in China and India.
We're big in computer programming. We're home to global hedge funds.
Local bankers like Holt help customers do business around the world. Even though Southwest Securities is not a giant, he expects its foreign segment to expand as customers become more globally focused.
"You don't have to be big to be global," Cox says. "You just have to develop a global mindset. Once you do, you've got tremendous opportunity."
Diversity helps

Another advantage is D-FW's diversified population, which as of the last census included 265,000 Asians who help connect us with those growing parts of the world, he says.
Immigration from countries to our south is another plus, Cox says.
"At one end of the income distribution, they're building houses, taking care of our children, being our maids, providing lawn care, being police and firefighters. At the other, they're lawyers, bond dealers, business owners, professors.
"We need to celebrate our diversity."
The biggest challenge is improving education from pre-K through college if D-FW is to have the workforce required to fuel economic growth, he says.
"We have to embrace economic freedom. We need to remake our economy over and over again and not get stuck on one thing.
"We need to embrace globalization, look abroad for sales and resist policies to stop outsourcing.
"And the absolutely worst thing we could do as a state is to initiate income taxes."
Unbridled growth will stress roads, schools, health care and other services, says Al Niemi, SMU's business school dean. But those problems pale against the woes being experienced elsewhere.
Long term, our problems are likely to be environmental. Air quality and water could become serious issues as D-FW adds several million people, Niemi says.
And there's the specter of longer commute times. "We do not want to become the next Los Angeles."
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Old 09-10-2010, 03:43 PM
Location: USA
13,266 posts, read 10,362,463 times
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Chicago's infastructure could add about 1 million people if parts of the South and West Sides were cleaned up. A lot could happen in between now and then but Chicago has the most opportunity I would say.
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Old 09-10-2010, 07:12 PM
228 posts, read 336,007 times
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This is so comical!
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Old 09-10-2010, 07:13 PM
228 posts, read 336,007 times
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The writing is on the wall. lol
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Old 10-05-2010, 11:00 PM
Location: You Already Know: San Diego!
377 posts, read 951,773 times
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Originally Posted by SEAandATL View Post
Here are my predictions for the largest cities and largest metros in 2050:

By city proper

1. New York City
2. Los Angeles
3. San Diego
4. Chicago
5. Houston
6. Dallas
7. San Antonio
8. Phoenix
9. Philadelphia
10. San Jose

By metro area

1. Los Angeles/San Diego/Tijuana MSA
2. New York/Newark/Philly MSA
3. Dallas/Ft. Worth/Arlington
4. Chicagoland
5. Greater Houston
6. Greater Atlanta Region (including Columbus, Macon, and Athens)
7. Miami Metro
8. San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose
9. Washington/Baltimore
10. Seattle/Tacoma MSA
I'm suprised no one quoted this. San Diego at 3rd? Even though San Diego is my most treasured city, San Diego will never be that high.

By city proper, San Diego should reach 2 million, gaining over 500,000 people from the current population of 1.4 million .

1. New York 13m
2. Los Angeles 6.5m
3. Houston 3.9m
4. Chicago 3.8m
5. Phoenix 2.7m
6. San Antonio 2.1m
7. San Diego 2.0m

And the metro should be (LA-SD-TJ) over 35 million .

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