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San Antonio and Austin are for sure at the top of the list for the fastest growing. The same for Dallas, Houston, Rio Grande Valley and Texas in general has the fastest growing cities. Charlotte, NC is another fast growing city.
Austin is projected #5 in growth rate through 2025. Raleigh (not Charlotte) tops the growth rate list. Austin's absolute numbers will be greater though.
bizjournals: 10 fastest growing metros through 2025 (http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/slideshow/60.html?page=1 - broken link)
From 2010-2020 the sunbelt will still have the highest growth rates percentage wise although I think it's going to slow down drastically. I feel we will start seeing more of a reversal of white flight and more urban cities will be revamped back to their pre-suburbia standings. I don't see Detroit or some of the other hard hit cities of the rust belt making their comebacks just yet though...SHOWER TIME!
If this decade means the 2000s my area was a big boom city, based on the real estate bubble and all that bs, but now its a bust city for the same reason.
All in all, I think this decade will look like the last couple.
My guess is that some of these “boom and bust” cities will show some of the fastest growth when the economy recovers.
South:
DFW, Hou, Atl will all grow briskly, but at slower rates than in the 00s.
Mid-sized cities like Austin, Raleigh-Durham, and maybe Charlotte/Nashville will continue to grow at sharp rates.
Western:
Boise, SLC, Col Spring, and Denver will grow quickly over the course of the decade.
The only boom cities that I think will see decade long slowdowns are: LV, Phx, and parts of CA and FL. Even these may be helped by high immigrant birth rates.
NW:
Continue to grow at the healthy, but not breakneck rates of the 00s.
NorthEast and Midwest:
Aside from pockets of growth: DC, M-SP, and maybe some college/smaller towns, I don't see these areas booming anytime soon.
With an emphasis on "going green" and increases in public transit projects, I see many of the smaller satellite cities in the Northeast turning around this decade and booming. Cities like Manchester NH, Lowell MA, New Bedford MA, New Haven CT, Reading P.A., etc. These cities are generally looked at as more affordable alternatives to the big cities not too far away. faster rail connections and the desire to drive less will make these cities big destinations. Cities like Boston, New York and Washington D.C. are increasingly becoming more expensive. Younger, middle class residents looking for urban lifestyles will seek out the opportunity to revamp these older, smaller cities and mold them into urban satellites of major cities that are nearby. You've already seen this happen with Providence. It's also happened, to a lesser degree, with cities like New Haven, Lowell, Manchester, etc. I believe this trend will continue to grow.
It's worth noting that the Sunbelt and Southwestern cities that were rapidly growing before will probably continue growing fast (slower than before though) before topping out. There's a good chance that the change I predict won't really kick into high gear until the mid-later part of this decade or early next decade.
From 2010-2020 I feel we will start seeing more of a reversal of white flight and more urban cities will be revamped back to their pre-suburbia standings.
Regardless of location, I'd really like to see a return to cities across the country. Likewise, I'd like to see the boomtowns grow their urban cores as rapidly or faster than the burbs. One can dream!
Regardless of location, I'd really like to see a return to cities across the country. Likewise, I'd like to see the boomtowns grow their urban cores as rapidly or faster than the burbs. One can dream!
That would be cool. Realisitically, we live in a suburban nation. The overwhelming majority of the coming growth is gowing to take place in suburban development. It is just so much cheaper/easier to build. Plus, most American's hate density,
That being said, hopefully we can get some "niche" urban infill. We are never going to create a new Bos or Chi. But, maybe we can get a couple more Portland/Seattle type cities: suburban cities w/ vibrant cores.
That would be cool. Realisitically, we live in a suburban nation. The overwhelming majority of the coming growth is gowing to take place in suburban development. It is just so much cheaper/easier to build. Plus, most American's hate density,
That being said, hopefully we can get some "niche" urban infill. We are never going to create a new Bos or Chi. But, maybe we can get a couple more Portland/Seattle type cities: suburban cities w/ vibrant cores.
I think that Americans prefer "big" to "small" (for the money) and that correlates to suburbia. Even in suburbia, it's amazing how much people will give up in terms of location for 500 more square feet. If people could buy big places DT on the cheap, I think that the DT areas of many cities would be exploding with people.
I can't count the number of times that I have watched these house hunter type shows on HGTV where the buyer said they wanted to be in the city and ended up in the burbs "because you get more house". The excess mentality and a recalibration of needs vs. wants has to change in order for the suburban model to slow. Let's be real here, a family of 4 doesn't "need" a 3500 square foot house. That's a "want". When I was a kid, my family of 6 lived in a very nice home that was under 1600 SF and nobody suffered from not having a bonus room, 4 bathrooms or a 3 car garage....I'm just sayin'....
Location: Cleveland bound with MPLS in the rear-view
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Wow! I am beginning to question these projections for cities that large/dispersed -- where are 1 million people going to live? Are these cities (Dallas, Houston, Atlanta) going to be much more vertical? Something has to give, IMO.
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