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Old 02-07-2013, 12:36 PM
 
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We all know that Cleveland's population has been shrinking quite a bit over the past several decades. There are a myriad of reasons, but I won't delve into that here.

Recently though, Cleveland's downtown has seen a substantial influx of residents comprised mostly of younger white-collar professionals. Does anyone know if this increase in downtown population has resulted in an overall net growth in Cleveland's population?
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Old 02-07-2013, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Boston, MA
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I guess we won't really know until the next census. However, if I may make an educated guess, Cleveland is still losing population.

Many people are repopulating Cleveland, don't get me wrong. Downtown has exploded in the last 5 years and many more apartments are set to open soon and in the next few years. It will continue to grow pretty well. Same for Ohio City, Tremont, Detroit-Shoreway, University Circle, Little Italy, North Collinwood, i.e., the "popular areas."

At the same time, the poorer parts of Cleveland are still emptying out. Glenville, Hough, South Collinwood, St. Clair, Lee-Miles. People are still leaving. Old people that live there are dying, those who can afford to move are moving to the suburbs, etc. In these kinds of neighborhoods, there are no young people moving in. I think it is likely that they will continue to lose population for the next 10 years. The combination of disrepair, crime, and bad schools make it less likely to rebound as nicely as some other neighborhoods.

However, in my opinion, it is unwise to overlook the growth of our urban core. I think that even though population will probably be a little less at the next census too, that doesn't necessarily mean we are in bad shape. I think the boom of downtown heading west (and a little bit east into Asiatown, CSU area) will keep growing. University Circle has the potential to spread some love to places like Glenville and East Cleveland if the right people are in charge and make the right decisions. It all comes down to execution. In my opinion, based on trends I see, Cleveland's population will probably shrink for the next 5-10 years, though not nearly the same kind of shrinkage as before. It will be considerably less. Look for population to be on the rise again probably in 10. Just my 2 cents!
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Old 02-07-2013, 12:57 PM
 
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Thanks for your thoughtful and well-reasoned reply. Makes a lot of sense, though like you stated, we'll have to see how it plays out.

I understand your examples of population decline due to elderly deaths and moderate income families moving to nearby suburbs. However, I'm not sure what you mean when you say "the poorer parts of Cleveland are still emptying out...Glenville, Hough, South Collinwood, St. Clair, Lee-Miles." Where are these poor people leaving to?

If they are poor in Cleveland, they certainly are in no position to sustain themselves in a suburb, right?
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Old 02-07-2013, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Boston, MA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffin96 View Post
Thanks for your thoughtful and well-reasoned reply. Makes a lot of sense, though like you stated, we'll have to see how it plays out.

I understand your examples of population decline due to elderly deaths and moderate income families moving to nearby suburbs. However, I'm not sure what you mean when you say "the poorer parts of Cleveland are still emptying out...Glenville, Hough, South Collinwood, St. Clair, Lee-Miles." Where are these poor people leaving to?

If they are poor in Cleveland, they certainly are in no position to sustain themselves in a suburb, right?
There is a reason these areas stay poor- when you have enough money and can afford to leave and move to maybe Garfield Heights, Maple Heights, Cleveland Heights, Shaker Heights, then you move out! No reason to stay if you can live somewhere a bit nicer and not break the bank to do it.
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Old 02-07-2013, 01:09 PM
 
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Originally Posted by bjimmy24 View Post
...move to maybe Garfield Heights, Maple Heights, Cleveland Heights, Shaker Heights, then you move out! No reason to stay if you can live somewhere a bit nicer and not break the bank to do it.
While it's an upgrade for those families, that might also explain the noticeable decline in the aesthetic quality of many neighborhoods in the suburbs you named.
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Old 02-07-2013, 01:22 PM
 
Location: Boston, MA
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Originally Posted by griffin96 View Post
While it's an upgrade for those families, that might also explain the noticeable decline in the aesthetic quality of many neighborhoods in the suburbs you named.
A lot of people would agree with you.

But I think the most important thing to consider about Cleveland's future is the kind of person who is moving into the city now. Where Cleveland failed in the past is by basing its existence on one industry. Everyone had pretty much just one skill and was unable to adapt to a changing economic landscape. Thus, the downfall of Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, the Rust Belt. Now, we are not a one trick pony anymore. We have diversified. In the past, Clevelanders were uneducated. Now the people moving in have college degrees and an entrepreneurial spirit. People with degrees on average make much more than those without. This is good for the region. We are still a good deal behind other cities when it comes to skills and education, but we are at least on the right track now.
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Old 02-07-2013, 03:25 PM
 
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Intuitively, I would say Cleveland has not bottomed out, as the formerly stable, blue collar, low to mid income, west side neighborhoods are having tremendous issues. Perhaps the east side has stabilized somewhat.
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Old 02-07-2013, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Summit, NJ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffin96 View Post
I understand your examples of population decline due to elderly deaths and moderate income families moving to nearby suburbs. However, I'm not sure what you mean when you say "the poorer parts of Cleveland are still emptying out...Glenville, Hough, South Collinwood, St. Clair, Lee-Miles." Where are these poor people leaving to?

If they are poor in Cleveland, they certainly are in no position to sustain themselves in a suburb, right?
Cleveland has a massive housing surplus. The region's been losing population but is constantly building more housing. Because of this, home values are extremely cheap, especially in the unhip inner-ring suburbs. Thousands upon thousands of mid-20th century bungalows (which I like) aren't selling because they're not in a top school district or a fun urban area.

According to Zillow, Glenville's median home value is $41,900; Euclid's is $61,800. That's really not that big of a difference, and while Euclid may not be paradise, it's not Glenville. (If one of you lives in Glenville and likes it, I apologize. It's just a common perception that it's a hotbed of crime.) So if a young working-class family has a choice between the two, it's kind of a no-brainer. Same thing with Old Brooklyn (median $59,500) and Parma (median $84,900 and probably a lot less in certain parts).

Cuyahoga Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow Local Info
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Old 02-07-2013, 03:45 PM
 
Location: West Paris
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Originally Posted by averysgore View Post
Cleveland has a massive housing surplus. The region's been losing population but is constantly building more housing. Because of this, home values are extremely cheap, especially in the unhip inner-ring suburbs. Thousands upon thousands of mid-20th century bungalows (which I like) aren't selling because they're not in a top school district or a fun urban area.

According to Zillow, Glenville's median home value is $41,900; Euclid's is $61,800. That's really not that big of a difference, and while Euclid may not be paradise, it's not Glenville. (If one of you lives in Glenville and likes it, I apologize. It's just a common perception that it's a hotbed of crime.) So if a young working-class family has a choice between the two, it's kind of a no-brainer. Same thing with Old Brooklyn (median $59,500) and Parma (median $84,900 and probably a lot less in certain parts).

Cuyahoga Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow Local Info

Who purchases ???
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:31 AM
 
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^^ There's a lot of older housing that simply needs to be bulldozed. Many of them are in disrepair and would cost more to rehab that to build new. Rather than building new in a decrepit area, the people move to other areas of the city and the housing is condemned with the land either remaining vacant or put to another use. Some of the inner ring suburbs have the same issue, but they're a couple decades behind in dealing with the problem which is basically a stock of housing that higher income people don't want anymore.
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