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Old 05-07-2019, 08:55 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
Only Summit is Akron's core county because if Portage was included it would have been the Cleveland-Akron to begin with.
Thanks, that is what I figured.
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Old 04-28-2020, 02:09 AM
 
778 posts, read 542,208 times
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I'll post an update since there has been recent news regarding MSAs in Northeast Ohio. First, Akron-Canton business leaders announcing a plan a couple months ago to try to form their own MSA called the "Metroplex."

Now, there is a plan by NOACA that could try to get Cleveland-Akron-Canton all into one MSA. I've updated the spreadsheet I started a couple of years ago and added the 2016 and 2017 numbers (from onthemap).

As of the 2017 numbers, the flow between Summit County to Cuyahoga/Lorain (the two core counties in the Cleveland MSA) is now at 24.26 percent. That's up slightly from 2016 when it was 24.11 percent. Though it's interesting that the number from 2015 to 2016 dipped from 24.11 to 23.84, before then surging from 23.84 to the 24.26 it sits at now. Going back to 2002, though, there has been mostly a steady increase from 19.88 to the 24.26.

Between 2016 and 2017, there was an increase of 1,224 people commuting from Summit County to Cuyahoga/Lorain and an increase of 490 commuting from Cuyahoga/Lorain to Summit. So, bottom line is based on how MSAs are currently determined, it's likely that Cleveland and Akron would meet the threshold (over 25 percent on a three-year average) by the 2028 realignment.

The number of workers who cross commute between Summit and Cuyahoga has surpassed 70,000 to 70,490 ... 45,378 commute from Summit to Cuyahoga (19.16 percent) and 25,112 commute from Cuyahoga to Summit (4.7 percent). So, just Cuyahoga and Summit alone that adds up to 23.87 percent (so Lorain makes up a very small portion of getting the two close to 25 percent).

How close are Akron and Canton from meeting the MSA threshold? It's still a ways off (despite the popular assumption that Akron and Canton are more closely linked).

In 2015, the commuter flow between Stark and Summit County was at 19.8 percent (34,948 total with 11,710 from Summit to Stark and 23,238 from Stark to Summit). That is up to 20.54 percent in 2017 (36,723 with 12,349 from Summit to Stark and 24,374 from Stark to Summit). I don't doubt that there can be some political pull that would get those two into a combined MSA with enough local/state/federal political support, but the two areas are still about 4.5 percent away from technically meeting the standards.

In fact, Cleveland and Akron seem to be slightly growing closer together than what Akron and Canton are. ... and if Lake County didn't lose its core county designation in 2013, it would have reached 25 percent in the 2017 numbers (25.03)

Also, are now more total people from Cuyahoga County who commute to Summit County than those who commute from Stark to Summit. And there are about four times as many people who commute from Summit to Cuyahoga compared to those who commute from Summit to Stark.

Over the past two years, here is the numerical change between them:

Cuyahoga to Summit: +1,107
Stark to Summit: +1,046
Summit to Cuyahoga: +802
Summit to Stark: +639

It's close but that's a total gain of 1,909 between Cuyahoga/Summit and a gain of 1,685 between Summit/Stark.

However, I think those numbers are close enough where the NOACA plan of combining all three makes the most sense because the three are all interconnected. And if Cleveland-Akron were to organically merge into an MSA, Canton's overall commuting percent between (Lorain/Cuyahoga/Summit ... which would be the three core counties) would be 22.46 percent based off the 2017 numbers. Still falls short, but it's still closer than if Akron and Canton were to merge (22.46 vs. 20.54).

As for some other notes. When I started this thread a couple years ago, I speculated that Ashland County could potentially reach the 10 percent threshold to enter the CSA if Cleveland and Akron were to merge. That looks like it would be the case as the overall flow would be at 12.21 percent as of 2017.

It looked then like Youngstown-Warren would fall just short of joining the CSA, but now looks like they would join as the overall flow percentage is 10.35 percent between Trumbull/Mahoning and Cuyahoga/Summit/Lorain. ... Though if Canton were also to enter, that could get bumped up to I'm guessing 15-plus percent, but it would still fall well short of what would be needed for all four of the Northeast Ohio metros to qualify as one.

As for a Cincinnati-Dayton update, it looks like the two have now reached the 10 percent threshold that could lead to a CSA. The flow between Hamilton/Butler (the Cincinnati core counties) and Montgomery is up to 10.23 percent. If that stays, they should finally get the CSA status by 2023, though, they are still a ways off from ever becoming a combined MSA. I'm also not sure if that would lead to any additional counties also entering a Cincinnati-Dayton CSA.

I'll end with this. Here is the top 20 counties in total cross commuters:

1. Hamilton/Butler (Cincinnati MSA): 83,525 (42.79%)
2. Franklin/Delaware (Columbus MSA): 82,742 (61.18%)
3. Cuyahoga/Summit (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 70,490 (23.87%)
4. Cuyahoga/Lorain (Cleveland MSA): 62,955 (39.67%)
5. Cuyahoga/Lake (Cleveland MSA): 55,635 (39.53%)
6. Hamilton/Clermont (Cincinnati MSA): 51,509 (46.90%)
7. Hamilton/Warren (Cincinnati MSA): 42,632 (32.45%)
8. Montgomery/Greene (Dayton MSA): 40,534 (44.81%)
9. Franklin/Licking (Columbus MSA): 38,122 (40.20%)
10. Lucas/Wood (Toledo MSA): 38,014 (45.04%)
11. Franklin/Fairfield (Columbus MSA): 37,113 (48.28%)
12. Summit/Stark (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 36,723 (20.54%)
13. Cuyahoga/Medina (Cleveland MSA): 35,650 (34.99%)
14. Summit/Portage (Akron MSA): 29,212 (31.24%)
15. Mahoning/Trumbull (Youngstown MSA): 27,927 (33.32%)
16. Montgomery/Warren (no designation): 22,853 (17.92%)
17. Cuyahoga/Geauga (Cleveland MSA): 21,153 (42.78%)
18. Summit/Medina (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 19,922 (18.71%)
19. Cuyahoga/Portage (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 18,179 (21.15%)
20. Franklin/Union (Columbus MSA): 17,761 (39.13%)

Also:
Hamilton/Montgomery (no designation): 16,349 (6.45%)
Cuyahoga/Stark (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 11,517 (5.59%)

Interesting the four of the top 20 are in Northeast Ohio and aren't MSA counties ... and all four involve the Akron MSA counties (Summit, 3 and Portage, 1). Also, interesting the Montgomery/Warren is No. 16 and they aren't (yet) even in a CSA. BTW, if Warren were to be considered a core county, Cincinnati/Dayton's commuting percent would jump from 10.23 to 16.26, so still about 9 percent away from an MSA.
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Old 04-28-2020, 02:59 AM
 
11,441 posts, read 8,903,467 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
I'll post an update since there has been recent news regarding MSAs in Northeast Ohio. First, Akron-Canton business leaders announcing a plan a couple months ago to try to form their own MSA called the "Metroplex."

Now, there is a plan by NOACA that could try to get Cleveland-Akron-Canton all into one MSA. I've updated the spreadsheet I started a couple of years ago and added the 2016 and 2017 numbers (from onthemap).

As of the 2017 numbers, the flow between Summit County to Cuyahoga/Lorain (the two core counties in the Cleveland MSA) is now at 24.26 percent. That's up slightly from 2016 when it was 24.11 percent. Though it's interesting that the number from 2015 to 2016 dipped from 24.11 to 23.84, before then surging from 23.84 to the 24.26 it sits at now. Going back to 2002, though, there has been mostly a steady increase from 19.88 to the 24.26.

Between 2016 and 2017, there was an increase of 1,224 people commuting from Summit County to Cuyahoga/Lorain and an increase of 490 commuting from Cuyahoga/Lorain to Summit. So, bottom line is based on how MSAs are currently determined, it's likely that Cleveland and Akron would meet the threshold (over 25 percent on a three-year average) by the 2028 realignment.

The number of workers who cross commute between Summit and Cuyahoga has surpassed 70,000 to 70,490 ... 45,378 commute from Summit to Cuyahoga (19.16 percent) and 25,112 commute from Cuyahoga to Summit (4.7 percent). So, just Cuyahoga and Summit alone that adds up to 23.87 percent (so Lorain makes up a very small portion of getting the two close to 25 percent).

How close are Akron and Canton from meeting the MSA threshold? It's still a ways off (despite the popular assumption that Akron and Canton are more closely linked).

In 2015, the commuter flow between Stark and Summit County was at 19.8 percent (34,948 total with 11,710 from Summit to Stark and 23,238 from Stark to Summit). That is up to 20.54 percent in 2017 (36,723 with 12,349 from Summit to Stark and 24,374 from Stark to Summit). I don't doubt that there can be some political pull that would get those two into a combined MSA with enough local/state/federal political support, but the two areas are still about 4.5 percent away from technically meeting the standards.

In fact, Cleveland and Akron seem to be slightly growing closer together than what Akron and Canton are. ... and if Lake County didn't lose its core county designation in 2013, it would have reached 25 percent in the 2017 numbers (25.03)

Also, are now more total people from Cuyahoga County who commute to Summit County than those who commute from Stark to Summit. And there are about four times as many people who commute from Summit to Cuyahoga compared to those who commute from Summit to Stark.

Over the past two years, here is the numerical change between them:

Cuyahoga to Summit: +1,107
Stark to Summit: +1,046
Summit to Cuyahoga: +802
Summit to Stark: +639

It's close but that's a total gain of 1,909 between Cuyahoga/Summit and a gain of 1,685 between Summit/Stark.

However, I think those numbers are close enough where the NOACA plan of combining all three makes the most sense because the three are all interconnected. And if Cleveland-Akron were to organically merge into an MSA, Canton's overall commuting percent between (Lorain/Cuyahoga/Summit ... which would be the three core counties) would be 22.46 percent based off the 2017 numbers. Still falls short, but it's still closer than if Akron and Canton were to merge (22.46 vs. 20.54).

As for some other notes. When I started this thread a couple years ago, I speculated that Ashland County could potentially reach the 10 percent threshold to enter the CSA if Cleveland and Akron were to merge. That looks like it would be the case as the overall flow would be at 12.21 percent as of 2017.

It looked then like Youngstown-Warren would fall just short of joining the CSA, but now looks like they would join as the overall flow percentage is 10.35 percent between Trumbull/Mahoning and Cuyahoga/Summit/Lorain. ... Though if Canton were also to enter, that could get bumped up to I'm guessing 15-plus percent, but it would still fall well short of what would be needed for all four of the Northeast Ohio metros to qualify as one.

As for a Cincinnati-Dayton update, it looks like the two have now reached the 10 percent threshold that could lead to a CSA. The flow between Hamilton/Butler (the Cincinnati core counties) and Montgomery is up to 10.23 percent. If that stays, they should finally get the CSA status by 2023, though, they are still a ways off from ever becoming a combined MSA. I'm also not sure if that would lead to any additional counties also entering a Cincinnati-Dayton CSA.

I'll end with this. Here is the top 20 counties in total cross commuters:

1. Hamilton/Butler (Cincinnati MSA): 83,525 (42.79%)
2. Franklin/Delaware (Columbus MSA): 82,742 (61.18%)
3. Cuyahoga/Summit (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 70,490 (23.87%)
4. Cuyahoga/Lorain (Cleveland MSA): 62,955 (39.67%)
5. Cuyahoga/Lake (Cleveland MSA): 55,635 (39.53%)
6. Hamilton/Clermont (Cincinnati MSA): 51,509 (46.90%)
7. Hamilton/Warren (Cincinnati MSA): 42,632 (32.45%)
8. Montgomery/Greene (Dayton MSA): 40,534 (44.81%)
9. Franklin/Licking (Columbus MSA): 38,122 (40.20%)
10. Lucas/Wood (Toledo MSA): 38,014 (45.04%)
11. Franklin/Fairfield (Columbus MSA): 37,113 (48.28%)
12. Summit/Stark (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 36,723 (20.54%)
13. Cuyahoga/Medina (Cleveland MSA): 35,650 (34.99%)
14. Summit/Portage (Akron MSA): 29,212 (31.24%)
15. Mahoning/Trumbull (Youngstown MSA): 27,927 (33.32%)
16. Montgomery/Warren (no designation): 22,853 (17.92%)
17. Cuyahoga/Geauga (Cleveland MSA): 21,153 (42.78%)
18. Summit/Medina (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 19,922 (18.71%)
19. Cuyahoga/Portage (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 18,179 (21.15%)
20. Franklin/Union (Columbus MSA): 17,761 (39.13%)

Also:
Hamilton/Montgomery (no designation): 16,349 (6.45%)
Cuyahoga/Stark (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 11,517 (5.59%)

Interesting the four of the top 20 are in Northeast Ohio and aren't MSA counties ... and all four involve the Akron MSA counties (Summit, 3 and Portage, 1). Also, interesting the Montgomery/Warren is No. 16 and they aren't (yet) even in a CSA. BTW, if Warren were to be considered a core county, Cincinnati/Dayton's commuting percent would jump from 10.23 to 16.26, so still about 9 percent away from an MSA.
If telecommuting becomes more the norm, won't commuting be diminished, and not just between Summit and Cuyahoga Counties. I wonder if this means that many MSAs in the future actually will shrink.

Also, I don't understand at all your comments about Lake County. What is the definition of a core county and how could Lake County ever have been a "core" county? Where do you find listings of core counties? Are you saying that 25 percent of the commuting flow to and from Lake County involves Summit County destinations? What's the source for that information? If true, I find this surprising, almost unbelievable; I can't explain how this would be possible.

Thanks for providing this great granularity.
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Old 04-28-2020, 09:05 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
If telecommuting becomes more the norm, won't commuting be diminished, and not just between Summit and Cuyahoga Counties. I wonder if this means that many MSAs in the future actually will shrink.
How is "commuting" defined for this purpose?

COVID-19 aside, I think 100% telecommuting is going to remain unusual (but not unheard of). People will work 1-3 days from home each week, or come into the office every other Thursday, or something like that. In those cases, does the occasional commute to the physical workplace still count?

This might also expose a weakness in defining MSAs by commutes. We make trips to the Akron area somewhat regularly, but it's never work related.
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Old 04-28-2020, 10:40 AM
 
778 posts, read 542,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
If telecommuting becomes more the norm, won't commuting be diminished, and not just between Summit and Cuyahoga Counties. I wonder if this means that many MSAs in the future actually will shrink.

Also, I don't understand at all your comments about Lake County. What is the definition of a core county and how could Lake County ever have been a "core" county? Where do you find listings of core counties? Are you saying that 25 percent of the commuting flow to and from Lake County involves Summit County destinations? What's the source for that information? If true, I find this surprising, almost unbelievable; I can't explain how this would be possible.

Thanks for providing this great granularity.
I have not been able to find a list of core counties, I've just been piecing it together by information I have found on what constitutes one. From what I can tell, counties within an MSA that have a defined urban area are considered core. Elyria-Lorain (Lorain County) has its own urban area within the Cleveland MSA so it is considered a core county. At one point, I believe Mentor-Painesville also had its own urban area (why it used to be the Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor MSA, but now is just the Cleveland-Elyria MSA). I'm guessing that it was determined that Lake County was in the sphere of suburban Cleveland and it was dropped from having a defined urban area and Lake then was treated like Medina, Geagua and Portage counties where it isn't factored into the equation ... so while Medina and Summit have a combined cross commuting rate of 18.7 percent and Cuyahoga and Portage have a cross rate of 21.15 percent, they don't help in pushing the Cleveland-Akron closer to the magic 25 percent between core counties. If Medina and Portage were factored in, the two metros would be way over the combined 25 percent.

Losing Lake as a core county is also what dropped Ashtabula from the MSA and down to the CSA, because Ashtabula and Lake had enough cross commuting (along with Ashtabula and Cuyahoga) to meet the 25 percent. Now that it's just Cuyahoga (and a miniscule number with Lorain) factored in, it is well below that.

As for the other question about Lake County, it comes nowhere close to having a 25 percent commuting rate with Summit County. The numbers show that 0.97 percent of Summit County commuters work in Lake and 2.89 percent of Lake commuters work in Summit. Combined, that only adds a total of 0.77 percent to the overall flow, but since Cleveland-Akron is within .74 of hitting 25 percent, that would push it past that number.

Last edited by ClevelandBrown; 04-28-2020 at 11:27 AM..
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:26 AM
 
778 posts, read 542,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ferraris View Post
How is "commuting" defined for this purpose?

COVID-19 aside, I think 100% telecommuting is going to remain unusual (but not unheard of). People will work 1-3 days from home each week, or come into the office every other Thursday, or something like that. In those cases, does the occasional commute to the physical workplace still count?

This might also expose a weakness in defining MSAs by commutes. We make trips to the Akron area somewhat regularly, but it's never work related.
Those are good points.

BTW, here is the site I'm using to get the numbers ... https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/tot/

If you look, I believe telecommuting is factored in some aspect because if you search Cuyahoga County, for example, and look at the counties people "commute to," you will see quite a few to Franklin (a stretch but I guess not impossible). Then, Hamilton and Wayne Michigan have quite a few (no way is somebody making a daily commute there) and then further you go down, you'll see pretty much every major county in the USA having commuters from Cuyahoga ... IE, L.A., New York, Cook, etc.

As for the second part, I agree, basing it just on job commuting is a major flaw. I think it's a good metric to start from, but shouldn't be the only one.

For example, while 20 percent of Summit County workers commute to Cuyahoga, I'm guessing just as many regularly travel to Cuyahoga ... Browns/Indians/Cavs games, museums, restaurants, etc. I think shopping is a draw since all the major regional shopping destinations (Crocker Park, Legacy, Beachwood Place and now Pinecrest) are in Cuyahoga County.

Conversely, while not as regional, Akron has the Montrose area that I'm guessing would be the "local" option for say people in southern Cuyahoga like Brecksville since it's right down I-77, and a lot of people from Wadsworth and Medina. Belden Village in Canton gets a lot of people from southern Summit County.

Plus, MSA has a major flaw in being strictly county-by-county based anyway. I'd argue instead of MSA being the go-to, urban agglomerations should be what is looked at to determine the size of a region, In which contiguous urban areas are combined.

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"Cleveland" is the 20th largest in the US at 3,075,000 and 176th in the world.

"Cincinnati" is the 21st largest in the US at 2,775,000 and 190th in the world.

It's actually funny to me to look at how urban areas in Northeast Ohio are determined vs. MSA.

Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

1. Lorain-Elyria, in the Cleveland MSA, has its separate urban area, which is roughly north central Lorain County west.

2. Cleveland's urban area also goes into Lorain County (Avon Lake, Avon, North Ridgeville).

3. Cleveland's urban area also goes well into the Akron MSA ...Summit County and northern Portage County (pretty much Route 303 north and Streetsboro and Aurora).

4. Akron's urban area goes into the Cleveland MSA (Wadsworth in Medina County).

5. Akron's urban area also goes into the Canton MSA (Uniontown/Lake Township).

6. Canton's urban area goes into the Akron MSA (parts of the Green/New Franklin area).

The only "hole" between all of them is the roughly 60 square miles of the Cuyahoga Valley National Park and the adjacent Hinkley Reservation of the Cleveland Metro Parks that is about directly in the middle.

Last edited by Yac; 05-04-2020 at 08:30 AM..
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:37 AM
 
11,441 posts, read 8,903,467 times
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Post 32:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
I'll post an update since there has been recent news regarding MSAs in Northeast Ohio. First, Akron-Canton business leaders announcing a plan a couple months ago to try to form their own MSA called the "Metroplex."

Now, there is a plan by NOACA that could try to get Cleveland-Akron-Canton all into one MSA. I've updated the spreadsheet I started a couple of years ago and added the 2016 and 2017 numbers (from onthemap).

As of the 2017 numbers, the flow between Summit County to Cuyahoga/Lorain (the two core counties in the Cleveland MSA) is now at 24.26 percent. That's up slightly from 2016 when it was 24.11 percent. Though it's interesting that the number from 2015 to 2016 dipped from 24.11 to 23.84, before then surging from 23.84 to the 24.26 it sits at now. Going back to 2002, though, there has been mostly a steady increase from 19.88 to the 24.26.

Between 2016 and 2017, there was an increase of 1,224 people commuting from Summit County to Cuyahoga/Lorain and an increase of 490 commuting from Cuyahoga/Lorain to Summit. So, bottom line is based on how MSAs are currently determined, it's likely that Cleveland and Akron would meet the threshold (over 25 percent on a three-year average) by the 2028 realignment.

The number of workers who cross commute between Summit and Cuyahoga has surpassed 70,000 to 70,490 ... 45,378 commute from Summit to Cuyahoga (19.16 percent) and 25,112 commute from Cuyahoga to Summit (4.7 percent). So, just Cuyahoga and Summit alone that adds up to 23.87 percent (so Lorain makes up a very small portion of getting the two close to 25 percent).

How close are Akron and Canton from meeting the MSA threshold? It's still a ways off (despite the popular assumption that Akron and Canton are more closely linked).

In 2015, the commuter flow between Stark and Summit County was at 19.8 percent (34,948 total with 11,710 from Summit to Stark and 23,238 from Stark to Summit). That is up to 20.54 percent in 2017 (36,723 with 12,349 from Summit to Stark and 24,374 from Stark to Summit). I don't doubt that there can be some political pull that would get those two into a combined MSA with enough local/state/federal political support, but the two areas are still about 4.5 percent away from technically meeting the standards.

In fact, Cleveland and Akron seem to be slightly growing closer together than what Akron and Canton are. ... and if Lake County didn't lose its core county designation in 2013, it would have reached 25 percent in the 2017 numbers (25.03)

Also, are now more total people from Cuyahoga County who commute to Summit County than those who commute from Stark to Summit. And there are about four times as many people who commute from Summit to Cuyahoga compared to those who commute from Summit to Stark.

Over the past two years, here is the numerical change between them:

Cuyahoga to Summit: +1,107
Stark to Summit: +1,046
Summit to Cuyahoga: +802
Summit to Stark: +639

It's close but that's a total gain of 1,909 between Cuyahoga/Summit and a gain of 1,685 between Summit/Stark.

However, I think those numbers are close enough where the NOACA plan of combining all three makes the most sense because the three are all interconnected. And if Cleveland-Akron were to organically merge into an MSA, Canton's overall commuting percent between (Lorain/Cuyahoga/Summit ... which would be the three core counties) would be 22.46 percent based off the 2017 numbers. Still falls short, but it's still closer than if Akron and Canton were to merge (22.46 vs. 20.54).

As for some other notes. When I started this thread a couple years ago, I speculated that Ashland County could potentially reach the 10 percent threshold to enter the CSA if Cleveland and Akron were to merge. That looks like it would be the case as the overall flow would be at 12.21 percent as of 2017.

It looked then like Youngstown-Warren would fall just short of joining the CSA, but now looks like they would join as the overall flow percentage is 10.35 percent between Trumbull/Mahoning and Cuyahoga/Summit/Lorain. ... Though if Canton were also to enter, that could get bumped up to I'm guessing 15-plus percent, but it would still fall well short of what would be needed for all four of the Northeast Ohio metros to qualify as one.

As for a Cincinnati-Dayton update, it looks like the two have now reached the 10 percent threshold that could lead to a CSA. The flow between Hamilton/Butler (the Cincinnati core counties) and Montgomery is up to 10.23 percent. If that stays, they should finally get the CSA status by 2023, though, they are still a ways off from ever becoming a combined MSA. I'm also not sure if that would lead to any additional counties also entering a Cincinnati-Dayton CSA.

I'll end with this. Here is the top 20 counties in total cross commuters:

1. Hamilton/Butler (Cincinnati MSA): 83,525 (42.79%)
2. Franklin/Delaware (Columbus MSA): 82,742 (61.18%)
3. Cuyahoga/Summit (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 70,490 (23.87%)
4. Cuyahoga/Lorain (Cleveland MSA): 62,955 (39.67%)
5. Cuyahoga/Lake (Cleveland MSA): 55,635 (39.53%)
6. Hamilton/Clermont (Cincinnati MSA): 51,509 (46.90%)
7. Hamilton/Warren (Cincinnati MSA): 42,632 (32.45%)
8. Montgomery/Greene (Dayton MSA): 40,534 (44.81%)
9. Franklin/Licking (Columbus MSA): 38,122 (40.20%)
10. Lucas/Wood (Toledo MSA): 38,014 (45.04%)
11. Franklin/Fairfield (Columbus MSA): 37,113 (48.28%)
12. Summit/Stark (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 36,723 (20.54%)
13. Cuyahoga/Medina (Cleveland MSA): 35,650 (34.99%)
14. Summit/Portage (Akron MSA): 29,212 (31.24%)
15. Mahoning/Trumbull (Youngstown MSA): 27,927 (33.32%)
16. Montgomery/Warren (no designation): 22,853 (17.92%)
17. Cuyahoga/Geauga (Cleveland MSA): 21,153 (42.78%)
18. Summit/Medina (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 19,922 (18.71%)
19. Cuyahoga/Portage (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 18,179 (21.15%)
20. Franklin/Union (Columbus MSA): 17,761 (39.13%)

Also:
Hamilton/Montgomery (no designation): 16,349 (6.45%)
Cuyahoga/Stark (Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA): 11,517 (5.59%)

Interesting the four of the top 20 are in Northeast Ohio and aren't MSA counties ... and all four involve the Akron MSA counties (Summit, 3 and Portage, 1). Also, interesting the Montgomery/Warren is No. 16 and they aren't (yet) even in a CSA. BTW, if Warren were to be considered a core county, Cincinnati/Dayton's commuting percent would jump from 10.23 to 16.26, so still about 9 percent away from an MSA.
Post 35:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
I have not been able to find a list of core counties, I've just been piecing it together by information I have found on what constitutes one. From what I can tell, counties within an MSA that have a defined urban area are considered core. Elyria-Lorain (Lorain County) has its own urban area within the Cleveland MSA so it is considered a core county. At one point, I believe Mentor-Painesville also had its own urban area (why it used to be the Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor MSA, but now is just the Cleveland-Elyria MSA). I'm guessing that it was determined that Lake County was in the sphere of suburban Cleveland and it was dropped from having a defined urban area and Lake then was treated like Medina, Geagua and Portage counties where it isn't factored into the equation ... so while Medina and Summit have a combined cross commuting rate of 18.7 percent and Cuyahoga and Portage have a cross rate of 21.15 percent, they don't help in pushing the Cleveland-Akron closer to the magic 25 percent between core counties. If Medina and Portage were factored in, the two metros would be way over the combined 25 percent.

Losing Lake as a core county is also what dropped Ashtabula from the MSA and down to the CSA, because Ashtabula and Lake had enough cross commuting (along with Ashtabula and Cuyahoga) to meet the 25 percent. Now that it's just Cuyahoga (and a miniscule number with Lorain) factored in, it is well below that.

As for the other question about Lake County, it comes nowhere close to having a 25 percent commuting rate with Summit County. The numbers show that 0.97 percent of Summit County commuters work in Lake and 2.89 percent of Lake commuters work in Summit. Combined, that only adds a total of 0.77 percent to the overall flow, but since Cleveland-Akron is within .74 of hitting 25 percent, that would push it past that number.
Thanks for your explanations. Candidly, I don't possess your historical perspective nor your understanding of the current standards for compiling "Core-Based Statistical Areas," including MSAs and CSAs.

I understand now that your statement about Lake County in post 32 wasn't about Lake County itself, but about how Lake County influenced some "25 percent" standard for the Cleveland MSA in its entirety. None of this is crystal clear to me, but really requires some detailed explanation by experts as the calculations relate specifically to the Cleveland-Elyria MSA.

You also don't seem to understand why Lake County (Mentor) was dropped from the title line of the Cleveland-Elyria MSA. This would be a worthy question to ask the Office of Management and Budget. E.g., Mentor is the sixth largest retail center in the U.S. Lorain (Elyria) County has a larger population than Lake County, but a much lower population density.

I did find the following Office of Management and Budget "2010 Standards for Delineating Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area." Looking at Section D. 11. "Definitions of Key Terms," apparently there are no longer "core" counties, just "main" counties. MSAs and CSAs are comprised of "Metropolitan Divisions" with each Metropolitan Division including at least one main county, but apparently the Cleveland-Elyria MSA has only on Metropolitan Division with only Cuyahoga County as a main county.

<<Main county—A county that acts as an employment center within a Core Based Statistical Area that has a core with a population of at least 2.5 million. A main county serves as the basis for delineating a Metropolitan Division. Metropolitan Division—A county or group of counties within a Core Based Statistical Area that contains an urbanized area with a population of at least 2.5 million. A Metropolitan Division consists of one or more main/ secondary counties that represent an employment center or centers, plus adjacent counties associated with the main/secondary county or counties through commuting ties.>>

Section D. 9. defines how a Core-Based Statistical Area (including MSAs and CSAs) are to be named:

<<(a) The title of a CBSA or NECTA will include the name of its Principal City with the largest 2010 Census population. If there are multiple Principal Cities, the names of the second-largest and (if present) third- largest Principal Cities will appear in the title in order of descending population size. >>

Section 5. defines principal cities. It's not clear why Elyria is a principal city and Mentor or Lorain are not, but apparently it has something to do with Mentor's population falling below 50,000 in 2010. Even though Lorain has a larger population than Elyria, it must not meet the requirement that more workers are employed in Lorain than the number of workers who live there, but Elyria does meet this standard.

<<(c) Any additional incorporated place or census designated place with a 2010 Census population of at least 50,000, but less than 250,000, and in which the number of workers working in the place meets or exceeds the number of workers living in the place>>

That's as far as I'm going in this learning process. Understanding how Lake County's omission as a main county affects the Cleveland-Elyria MSA commuting percentages and therefore the definition of the MSA would require more effort than warranted by my interest in the subject.

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...2010-15605.pdf

According to the legend of the following map, the Cleveland-Elyria MSA has NO Metropolitan Divisions, so it would appear that it has only one main county -- Cuyahoga County.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/maps/eco...M200US184M.pdf

If the Akron MSA were combined with the Cleveland-Elyria MSA, I would presume that there would be at least two Metropolitan Divisions with at least Summit County as an additional main county.

I would greatly enjoy reading an explanatory article if written by an expert as to construction of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA and its MSAs, but I have no interest in becoming that expert.

This article discusses the political motivations, but not the mechanics. I presume that MSA delineations are based on the mechanics, as determined by the OMB, and are not subject to political goals, but perhaps I'm wrong.

<<The Census Bureau and the federal Office of Management and Budget, which set criteria for defining statistical areas, require that for a merger to be considered, at least 25 percent of workers from one area must commute into another.

Currently, 17.7 percent of commuters from Summit and Portage counties commute into the five county Cleveland-Elyria MSA, with 14.6 percent traveling to Cuyahoga County, according to data compiled by NOACA.>>

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/...-rankings.html

Last edited by WRnative; 04-29-2020 at 05:00 AM..
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Old 04-30-2020, 01:54 AM
 
778 posts, read 542,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
Post 32:



Post 35:



Thanks for your explanations. Candidly, I don't possess your historical perspective nor your understanding of the current standards for compiling "Core-Based Statistical Areas," including MSAs and CSAs.

I understand now that your statement about Lake County in post 32 wasn't about Lake County itself, but about how Lake County influenced some "25 percent" standard for the Cleveland MSA in its entirety. None of this is crystal clear to me, but really requires some detailed explanation by experts as the calculations relate specifically to the Cleveland-Elyria MSA.

You also don't seem to understand why Lake County (Mentor) was dropped from the title line of the Cleveland-Elyria MSA. This would be a worthy question to ask the Office of Management and Budget. E.g., Mentor is the sixth largest retail center in the U.S. Lorain (Elyria) County has a larger population than Lake County, but a much lower population density.

I did find the following Office of Management and Budget "2010 Standards for Delineating Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area." Looking at Section D. 11. "Definitions of Key Terms," apparently there are no longer "core" counties, just "main" counties. MSAs and CSAs are comprised of "Metropolitan Divisions" with each Metropolitan Division including at least one main county, but apparently the Cleveland-Elyria MSA has only on Metropolitan Division with only Cuyahoga County as a main county.

<<Main county—A county that acts as an employment center within a Core Based Statistical Area that has a core with a population of at least 2.5 million. A main county serves as the basis for delineating a Metropolitan Division. Metropolitan Division—A county or group of counties within a Core Based Statistical Area that contains an urbanized area with a population of at least 2.5 million. A Metropolitan Division consists of one or more main/ secondary counties that represent an employment center or centers, plus adjacent counties associated with the main/secondary county or counties through commuting ties.>>

Section D. 9. defines how a Core-Based Statistical Area (including MSAs and CSAs) are to be named:

<<(a) The title of a CBSA or NECTA will include the name of its Principal City with the largest 2010 Census population. If there are multiple Principal Cities, the names of the second-largest and (if present) third- largest Principal Cities will appear in the title in order of descending population size. >>

Section 5. defines principal cities. It's not clear why Elyria is a principal city and Mentor or Lorain are not, but apparently it has something to do with Mentor's population falling below 50,000 in 2010. Even though Lorain has a larger population than Elyria, it must not meet the requirement that more workers are employed in Lorain than the number of workers who live there, but Elyria does meet this standard.

<<(c) Any additional incorporated place or census designated place with a 2010 Census population of at least 50,000, but less than 250,000, and in which the number of workers working in the place meets or exceeds the number of workers living in the place>>

That's as far as I'm going in this learning process. Understanding how Lake County's omission as a main county affects the Cleveland-Elyria MSA commuting percentages and therefore the definition of the MSA would require more effort than warranted by my interest in the subject.

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...2010-15605.pdf

According to the legend of the following map, the Cleveland-Elyria MSA has NO Metropolitan Divisions, so it would appear that it has only one main county -- Cuyahoga County.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/maps/eco...M200US184M.pdf

If the Akron MSA were combined with the Cleveland-Elyria MSA, I would presume that there would be at least two Metropolitan Divisions with at least Summit County as an additional main county.

I would greatly enjoy reading an explanatory article if written by an expert as to construction of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA and its MSAs, but I have no interest in becoming that expert.

This article discusses the political motivations, but not the mechanics. I presume that MSA delineations are based on the mechanics, as determined by the OMB, and are not subject to political goals, but perhaps I'm wrong.

<<The Census Bureau and the federal Office of Management and Budget, which set criteria for defining statistical areas, require that for a merger to be considered, at least 25 percent of workers from one area must commute into another.

Currently, 17.7 percent of commuters from Summit and Portage counties commute into the five county Cleveland-Elyria MSA, with 14.6 percent traveling to Cuyahoga County, according to data compiled by NOACA.>>

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/...-rankings.html
That's a lot to digest. I'm not going to say I'm an expert, but how MSA are determined is something that has fascinated me (and not just Northeast Ohio, but other areas that also seem like they are being short changed). I'm not going to bog this down why that is, but a broadly as possible its because I've lived in all four NEO "metros" at some point and outside of Youngstown/Warren, I'm still regularly in Cleveland, Akron and Canton. Based off my experiences, you can't find a "dead area" on any of the interstates between Lorain/Medina/Cuyahoga/Summit/Portage/Lake/Summit/Stark counties in peak hours. Though you can find them heading out to Youngstown. Neither I-76 or the turnpike (the arteries into that metro) are regularly congested in the middle like they are in the arteries of the aforementioned counties.

I'll try to respond, and sorry if I'm not interpreting you post fully.

1. Yes, I don't know exactly why Lake County was dropped off. But it's easy to see that it was formerly considered a core county (in accumulating the commuter rate) since Ashtabula was in the MSA and then once "Mentor" was dropped off the official MSA designation, Ashtabula also dropped to the CSA.

2. Why that happened, I think (and yes, if somebody knows for sure feel free to post) what happened was like I posted before. That Lake County was deemed to have its own separate Urban Area that likely consisted of Mentor and Painesville/Painesville Township. I'm guessing the reason it was considered its own Urban Area at some point is because Painesville has a historical population that wasn't tied to Cleveland and Mentor was (wrongly" determined to be a "suburb" of Painesville and not Cleveland. But since Mentor had the bigger population being the city that had a population of 50,000-plus, it was used as the one to designate Lake as a core county (even though Painesville is/was the more urban). Then, which I agree with, it was determined that Lake County was mostly in the sphere of suburban Cleveland (especially since Mentor dropped below 50,000), and it was no longer used to aggregate flow from to the core that is now Cuyahoga (and a very small percent to Lorain) and hence, Ashtabula dropped out of the MSA since it was tied a lot more to Lake than Cuyahoga County.

3. As for why Elyria is on the official designation and not the larger Lorain. I'm again making an educated guess, but it's likely because both Elyria and Lorain are still above 50,000 and since Elyria is the county seat, it got the desingation. Unlike the situation in Lake County, Elyria-Lorain do have a combined population that has been more than 100,000 (that wasn't tied to Cleveland) going back at least 70 to 80 years.

As for why Lorain County is considered core (in accumulating the percentage), it's because of Avon Lake, Avon, North Ridgeville, etc., all are significantly growing with most of that growth being from people who live there but work in Cuyahoga.

Lorain and Elyria (for industrial Northeast Ohio cities especially) have fared relatively well in population loss ... collectively roughly 10 percent since 1970 (mostly due to Lorain city). To put that in perspective, in 1970, the city of Youngstown had a population of 139,000. Now, it's 64,000. In 1970, Elyria and Lorain combined had a population of 131,000 and now has a population of 118,000 (Lorain, btw, is also about 64,000 alone). Conversely, while Elyria and Lorain have not lost population as rapidly as most Rust Belt cities, it's still declining, but Lorain County overall is still growing and that's because of people from Cuyahoga. So, I see how it's still considered a core county (and yes for MSA purposes, it's still considered one because neither Erie or Huron counties would be in the CSA if it wasn't). At the same time, I can eventually see Lorain County not being considered "core." Since the growth of the county now has a lot more to due to Cleveland/Cuyahoga than it does the cities of Lorain/Elyria.

4. With that, Lorain County (like Lake) plays a tiny role in adding to the commuting patterns between Summit and Cuyahoga. So really, it shouldn't factor in unless you are talking about adding an extra 1 to 2 percent to the total, which, in this case, is what would be needed for Cuyahoga/Summit to reach that 25 percent.

5. As for the differences in the numbers I posted, vs. the ones NOACA is citing. I think I know part of the reason why (though I'm guessing they may also have state wide data that is also different that the census estimates, which onthemap essentially is). For example, the numbers I compiled for Summit and Cuyahoga is based off of Summit County having 236,000 workers who live in the county and 534,000 workers who live in Cuyahoga (which are the correct numbers according to where I gathered it from). However, there are 256,000 people employed in Summit and 688,000 employed in Cuyahoga. So if you base off total workforce population vs. workforce population that lives in said county, yes, the percentages will be lower.

IMO, that hurts counties and Cuyahoga (in which 77 percent of it workers live and work in the county) is not alone in having significantly more jobs than workers, if this is based on strictly percentages. On the other end, it helps counties like Stark (Canton) which has 159,000 workers living in the county when there are only 149,000 jobs available. Of course more people from Stark are going to leave the county when there are more people there than jobs, helping the percentages.

6. With that, anybody who says Akron-Canton have 40 percent (and probably basing that from the Akron Chamber of Commerce's website) is flat out wrong. That's not even close to being the case or they would have already been a singular MSA, especially since Canton is on the negative of jobs vs. workers. Why make a case for something you already qualify for??? Also, read it again, the Akron Chamber website states: "Akron-Canton shares a workforce. In fact, 40% of our workforce crosses county lines each day to get to work."

County lines, yes. But which counties??? It's definitely not just Summit and Stark, lol. It's actually 40 percent amongst dozens of counties, with the plurality of that headed to Cuyahoga. Plus, there is a quote from Canton representative Kirk Schuring in the Canton Repository back in the fall where he said "population is power."

If population was really power, doesn't 3-plus million>>1 million?

7. I think what the people behind both the "Metroplex" and NOACA should do is team up and try to form a combined Cleveland-Akron-Canton MSA with metropolitan divisions (something WRNative mentioned). Technically, the region doesn't meet the standards for that, but apparently none meet the MSA standards either.

Problem solved. Each has a metro division (which keeps Akron and Canton more relevant if that is the concern) but it's all under the same MSA. If "population" is really power, what's the downside? Nothing, it's just different factions each trying to argue over a small percent either way you slice it. But instead of trying to come together with a regionalized plan, Akron-Canton leaders, despite being not meeting MSA standards on their own, are are fighting for an exception that actually has less of a case than the NOACA plan. But, yeah, that's Northeast Ohio for you, smh.

8. Or, simply, we can put more stock into urban agglomerates, which helps pretty much every region across the country (including Southwest Ohio) that has a case for feeling short changed. In Northeast Ohio's case, an agglomerate based ranking would look almost identical to what a Cleveland-Akron-Canton MSA would be anyway. But I guess, overall, that would be against the best interests of some of these podunk counties that are considered "metro" who (in totality) have a disproportionate amount of clout ... Like say Perry County, Ohio. You know how many people commute between Perry and Franklin? It's 1,755 ... total.

Yet, Perry is "metro" Columbus, lol. There are also a bunch of small counties of less than 30,000 total people leeching onto Cincinnati's MSA that would be booted. So we can't have that. Nothing says metro county like Bracken County, Kentucky (population 8,800), as another example.

I will say, I don't know if Perry County (Columbus) or Bracken County (Cincinnati) have helped either just by being in a metro, but I doubt it has hurt. At the same time, I don't know if Cleveland-Akron-Canton being one metro would help, but I doubt it would hurt.

Last edited by ClevelandBrown; 04-30-2020 at 02:19 AM..
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Old 04-30-2020, 03:12 PM
 
4,359 posts, read 6,781,251 times
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Of course it helps, especially from the perception side of things. Currently, if a family moves from Brecksville to Richfield, the Cleveland MSA loses population -- even though it really loses nothing because it is essentially one contiguous urbanized area. It is actually quite difficult to find a situation quite like that of the Cleveland-Akron dynamic anywhere else in the US where the contiguous urbanized areas in adjacent counties are not part of the same MSA. Dallas-Ft. Worth, Miami-Ft Lauderdale, etc. are prime examples. The argument can easily be made that NEO is all part of the Cleveland area. With a footprint similar the what is considered the Columbus MSA, Cleveland's MSA would be over 4 million people. Although I believe this is mostly recognized by the business community, why are the people who draw these lines apparently so oblivious or, dare I say it, insidious?
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Old 05-02-2020, 06:46 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR -> Rocky River, OH
868 posts, read 1,187,876 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland_Collector View Post
Of course it helps, especially from the perception side of things. Currently, if a family moves from Brecksville to Richfield, the Cleveland MSA loses population -- even though it really loses nothing because it is essentially one contiguous urbanized area. It is actually quite difficult to find a situation quite like that of the Cleveland-Akron dynamic anywhere else in the US where the contiguous urbanized areas in adjacent counties are not part of the same MSA. Dallas-Ft. Worth, Miami-Ft Lauderdale, etc. are prime examples. The argument can easily be made that NEO is all part of the Cleveland area. With a footprint similar the what is considered the Columbus MSA, Cleveland's MSA would be over 4 million people. Although I believe this is mostly recognized by the business community, why are the people who draw these lines apparently so oblivious or, dare I say it, insidious?
And the Brecksville-Richfield line will continue to blur when the Sherwin-Williams new R&D Center gets built at Valor Acres...and all the spinoff development that will occur alongside it.
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