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Old 04-06-2019, 12:44 AM
 
308 posts, read 225,575 times
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This is something I started doing a couple months back and never got around finishing it up until tonight. I've been examining traffic flow patterns to determine just how close the Cleveland and Akron MSAs are to meeting the 25 percent threshold to become a combined MSA. As most of people know, it's very close and trends show that they could meet the 25 percent threshold by the 2020 numbers (though, the next readjustment won't come until 2023, and somebody correct me if I'm wrong on this but it will be determined by a rolling five-year average of the 2016-2020 numbers).

The 2015 numbers are the most recent ones available, so what I did was used a five-year average (using onthemap.com) to project out based on that data. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it will happen in 2023, but if recent trends continue (and I acknowledge it's hard to predict five years, let alone 10 years), it will happen in 2028. Though it's going to be close enough that where even a modest shift, could make it possible for it to happen in 2023.

According to the 2015 numbers, the combined flow between Summit and Cuyahoga/Lorain (the two considered core counties was 24.11 percent. I'm still a little perplexed how Lorain is considered core and Lake isn't (which would put it over the 25 percent right now), but that's another topic.

So, it's within .89 percent.

According to the 2011 numbers, the combined flow was 23.46 percent, so it averages a gain of .13 percent per year. Going by that and projected out, here is what you have:

2016: 24.24
2017: 24.37
2018: 24.5
2019: 24.63
2020: 24.76
2021: 24.89
2022: 25.02

Obviously, this could accelerate or go the other direction between now and then, but going back to the 2002 data (earliest available), the flow was 20.31 percent, so this has been a long-term upward trend.

So, while it may not be in time for 2023, barring the government moving the goalposts on how metros are determined, looks like 2028 will be the year, the Cleveland-Akron MSA finally appears.

I also went ahead and tried to determine what other changes (MSA or CSA) if Akron is included.

From what I gathered, there would be not other counties added to the MSA as Stark and Wayne would be the closest (assuming Summit would be considered a core county). Stark's flow in a hypothetical Cleveland-Akron MSA would be 22.12 right now and that is actually slightly lower than it was in 2011. Wayne County would be at 15.26. It would need Stark to join the MSA (and be considered a core county) and it would put Wayne close, but that appears to be unlikely to happen.

The CSA level would be interesting, and a lot of it would depend on whether Lorain would still be considered a core county, or would Summit would replace it (which is what I think would happen, but I'm not exactly sure how core counties are tabulated).

If Lorain is no longer a core county, the CSA would lose Erie and Huron counties (they are linked due to Lorain being considered core), so that would be the loss of 133,000.

If Lorain continues to be a core county and Summit is added as a core county (I don't see how it wouldn't be), however, Erie and Huron would remain in the CSA and it would pick up Ashland county, adding about 53,000 to the current numbers, which would push the CSA close to 3.6 million.

Youngstown-Warren was one I thought had a chance to join the CSA, but looks like it will be a near miss. It would currently be at 9.12 percent if just Cuyahoga/Summit are considered core, or 9.72 percent (if Lorain is also considered core). So, it's within 1 percent of reaching the 10 percent threshold, but those numbers are also going slightly in the opposite direction, so close but no cigar on adding would would be another 640,000 as Mahoning, Trumbull, Columbiana and Mercer, Pa. would've all joined the CSA, putting it at 4.2 million.

Overall, if this holds, you're looking at a metro (that of current population estimates) would be 2.76 million, with a CSA of either roughly 3.4 million or 3.6 million. My plan is to do some population estimates (since that tide seems to be turning) to see where those numbers could end up, but that's for another day.

Lastly,

I was interested in seeing how close Dayton and Cincinnati were to reaching CSA status. It's close, but doesn't seem like it will happen by 2023, or at all barring some reversal.

For 2015, that flow (using Hamilton, Butler and Montgomery) as core counties, was 9.76 percent, so very close. However, looking back (and I meant to use 2011 numbers but actually clicked on 2010), it was at 9.84 percent in 2010. So, it's actually going in the wrong direction.

I know there is a lot of talk about Cincinnati and Dayton being connected, but the numbers show in actuality, that Cincinnati-Dayton is almost comparable to what Youngstown-Warren would be if the Cleveland and Akron MSAs merge, and it's not even in the same neighborhood as what Canton's flow is to Cleveland-Akron (22.12 to 9.76 percent). ... and that is pretty apples to apples considering were talking about three counties in each (Cuyahoga/Summit/Stark and Hamilton/Butler/Montgomery) that are in a line and connected by a major highway (I-77 and I-75).

It shows that Dayton to Cincinnati is akin to what Youngstown-Warren is to Cleveland-Akron in being a nearby metro that doesn't have a lot to do with each other.

Since I spent a lot of time gathering this, figured I would put it out here and see where the discussion goes, lol.
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Old 04-06-2019, 07:42 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR -> Rocky River, OH
848 posts, read 1,036,844 times
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Nice work and research.

Side thought -- The other day I made the realization I have more coworkers (6 out of 10) who commute in from Summit County (Twinsburg / Macedonia / Hudson) than who live / work in Cuyahoga County.
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Old 04-10-2019, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
6,502 posts, read 6,592,185 times
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Interesting but the thing I never get about this conversation is that Dayton and Cincinnati are just a lot further away than Akron and Cleveland. I don't really understand the fascination behind it when you have a 15 mile difference between Akron to Cleveland and Dayton to Cincinnati.
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Old 04-10-2019, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Cincinnati(Silverton)
1,585 posts, read 2,466,552 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goofy328 View Post
Interesting but the thing I never get about this conversation is that Dayton and Cincinnati are just a lot further away than Akron and Cleveland. I don't really understand the fascination behind it when you have a 15 mile difference between Akron to Cleveland and Dayton to Cincinnati.
Distance is never factor in anything including Urbanized area, MSA and or CSA
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Old 04-10-2019, 08:38 PM
 
33 posts, read 78,462 times
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Distance considered or not - it should be odd to all that you can drive 15 minutes south from downtown Cleveland - and hit Summit County - which is NOT part of the official Cleveland metro. That's just silly.
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Old 04-11-2019, 08:49 PM
 
308 posts, read 225,575 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goofy328 View Post
Interesting but the thing I never get about this conversation is that Dayton and Cincinnati are just a lot further away than Akron and Cleveland. I don't really understand the fascination behind it when you have a 15 mile difference between Akron to Cleveland and Dayton to Cincinnati.
The fascination is simply what has been brought up, you can go 15 minutes and one county over to Northfield and statistically (by a very slim margin) an entirely different defined region. When Northfield in essence is actually a "suburb" of Bedford, which is unquestionably a suburb of Cleveland.

But distance really has nothing to do with it. It's about how connected the areas are. And commuting patterns point out that Cleveland-Akron-Canton are pretty much one, though Cleveland-Akron is less than 1 percent away from meeting the requirements. Then as soon as they do, Canton (which is about the same distance from Cleveland as Dayton is from Cincinnati) is now suddenly less than 3 percent away from also joining the metro.

Where as Cincinnati-Dayton are less than 1 percent from just reaching CSA status (which is the same number Youngstown would be at if/when Cleveland and Akron combine.) ... Canton already is easily in the CSA.

Distance wise, Youngstown to Cleveland is also the same as Dayton to Cincinnati. Hence, why I said Youngstown to Cleveland (or a combined Cleveland-Akron) is similar to Cincinnati-Dayton based off of commuting patterns.
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Old 04-12-2019, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
6,502 posts, read 6,592,185 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyehrtfood View Post
Distance considered or not - it should be odd to all that you can drive 15 minutes south from downtown Cleveland - and hit Summit County - which is NOT part of the official Cleveland metro. That's just silly.
It is part of the CSA. It just isn't part of the MSA yet.

To be fair CSA is all anyone cares about on C-D and the urban development community anyway. And those are the only real fans that matter in the conversation.

It's a numbers race. People don't care what matters to regular people, or the citizens for that matter.
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Old 04-12-2019, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
6,502 posts, read 6,592,185 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
The fascination is simply what has been brought up, you can go 15 minutes and one county over to Northfield and statistically (by a very slim margin) an entirely different defined region. When Northfield in essence is actually a "suburb" of Bedford, which is unquestionably a suburb of Cleveland.

But distance really has nothing to do with it. It's about how connected the areas are. And commuting patterns point out that Cleveland-Akron-Canton are pretty much one, though Cleveland-Akron is less than 1 percent away from meeting the requirements. Then as soon as they do, Canton (which is about the same distance from Cleveland as Dayton is from Cincinnati) is now suddenly less than 3 percent away from also joining the metro.

Where as Cincinnati-Dayton are less than 1 percent from just reaching CSA status (which is the same number Youngstown would be at if/when Cleveland and Akron combine.) ... Canton already is easily in the CSA.

Distance wise, Youngstown to Cleveland is also the same as Dayton to Cincinnati. Hence, why I said Youngstown to Cleveland (or a combined Cleveland-Akron) is similar to Cincinnati-Dayton based off of commuting patterns.
That's on paper. For layman Cleveland Akron and Canton are obviously in the same metro. Youngstown I don't know. It feels like there's nothing in between Akron suburbs and Youngstown. Cleveland to Youngstown I never took that drive so I don't know.

Far as Dayton and Cincinnati it almost seems the same but then you have Middletown. It just seems so far. But I see your point.
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Old 04-12-2019, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Cleveland, OH
9,561 posts, read 8,672,514 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goofy328 View Post
That's on paper. For layman Cleveland Akron and Canton are obviously in the same metro. Youngstown I don't know. It feels like there's nothing in between Akron suburbs and Youngstown. Cleveland to Youngstown I never took that drive so I don't know.

Far as Dayton and Cincinnati it almost seems the same but then you have Middletown. It just seems so far. But I see your point.
Used to drive Cleveland to Youngstown at least monthly. There is really not much in between. Youngstown to me feels like a different region, though I know many people including myself that have a lot of family ties to Youngstown.
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:41 AM
 
6,207 posts, read 7,281,387 times
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What are the real world impacts of this? Is it better to have one giant statistical area? Or are multiple smaller ones better? Or does what's better depend on if you are Cleveland or Akron?
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