CLE #5 for Inbound Migration Changes (2022 vs 2019)

[Jbraybarten653]

Originally Posted by MPK21

The Wuhan Virus is the major culprit in these losses, even Dallas County TX and Dade County had an estimated loss and, as you point out, Franklin County OH. New York City is estimated to have lost at least 335,000+ city residents during the pandemic shut-down.


So many large core counties experienced Wuhan Virus declines, especially the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast. Factor in the cost of housing on the West Coast and Northeast along with factors such as remote working, the Floyd Effect crime wave=many folks opted to walk.

This decade will be interesting to see how cities/metropolitan areas recover or continue to recede.

At least the City of Cleveland is seeing somewhat of a high-rise building boom and lots of general residential construction!

The covid virus impacted everywhere.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten653

The covid virus impacted everywhere.

First of all, let's remember that Greater Cleveland's inbound migration is a very nascent development.


Personally, no surprise to persons who follow my posts, I believe that recognition of the onslaught of climate change impacts is both suppressing marginally outward migration from Greater Cleveland and increasing, marginally as of yet, inbound migration.


I appreciate this thread because by the end of this decade when trends may become more pronounced, we may conclude that these statistics marked the beginning of the Great Climate Change Migration to Greater Cleveland. Greater Cleveland and northern Ohio, due to both the presence of Lake Erie, a more northern latitude, and its exceptional urban amenities, should be the most attractive region in Ohio for those seeking a refuge from climate change.


Of course, we are not yet witnessing the "full force" of the IMO inevitable Great Climate Change Migration.


https://www.city-data.com/forum/ohio...tion-ohio.html



As for COVID, I believe the argument is that Greater Cleveland suburbs and more rural counties given their relatively low housing costs proved attractive for those fleeing relatively high cost, more densely populated markets as remote work became an accepted norm. Greater Cleveland, unlike many alternatives, offered a high level or urban amenities, including Lake Erie, and, until the repeal of Roe v. Wade and the concerted efforts of Ohio Republicans to suppress reproductive rights in the state, a very high level quality of medical care.


If Ohio's Republicans prove successful in suppressing reproductive rights in the coming few years, it seems likely IMO that Greater Cleveland will become less attractive for younger Americans, especially women of child-bearing age and their partners and prospective partners (single men). If the Ohio Republicans' relatively radical restrictions on reproductive rights impair the quality of Greater Cleveland medical care, as appears a certainty IMO, then Greater Cleveland also will become much less attractive for retirees. See posts 4312, 4313, and 4315 in this thread.


https://www.city-data.com/forum/clev...sions-432.html


It wouldn't surprise me consequently that the relative absence of reproductive rights in Ohio would suppress significantly inbound migration to Ohio and to Greater Cleveland, even if the Great Climate Change Migration manifests itself elsewhere, such as in Michigan.



Michigan this past November passed a reproductive rights Constitutional amendment and Democrats, led by extraordinary women politicians who emphasized the importance of reproductive rights, gained total control of the state's government. The contrast in the Ohio and Michigan political environments has never been more stark in my lifetime to my memory.

[dr_j_planning]

Originally Posted by SlideRules99

Well, my post was meant to highlight the positive change in inbound migration rates (pre vs. post pandemic), not to detail any macro population trends.. Regardless, here are the latest population stats for the CLE Metro area.

Year Population Growth Rate

2023 1,764,000 0.17%
2022 1,761,000 0.06%
2021 1,760,000 -0.17%
2020 1,763,000 -0.34%
2019 1,769,000 -0.39%

And the sources

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2...and/population

https://populationstat.com/united-states/cleveland

This would seem to align w/ the study in my original link, which puts CLE Metro as one of the cities with the largest gains in inbound RATES of migration, comparing 2019 vs. 2022 snapshots (pre vs post pandemic). In other words, the area was losing people in 2019…it is gaining people now. And evidently carrying forward to 2023.

IMO, CLE will always lose a certain % of young workers to employment centers in Sun Belt areas (used to be coastal areas…), as well as retirees to places like SC and FL. This in spite of the fact that winters here are benign nowadays.

Inbound migration, ie fresh talent, is important for future vitality - regardless of net population trends.

Please note the macrotrends.net site draws its data from the United Nations (https://population.un.org/wpp/). The United Nations data are actually population estimates, versus decennial population counts that the U.S. Census Bureau provides.

DR J

[SlideRules99]

Originally Posted by dr_j_planning

Please note the macrotrends.net site draws its data from the United Nations (https://population.un.org/wpp/). The United Nations data are actually population estimates, versus decennial population counts that the U.S. Census Bureau provides.

DR J

Noted, thanks. All the more reason to steer discussion back toward the original inbound migration topic, which sources data from USPS and US Census in the analysis.

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by SlideRules99

Noted, thanks. All the more reason to steer discussion back toward the original inbound migration topic, which sources data from USPS and US Census in the analysis.

Agreed, which is why the 2022 USPS information is interesting given the toll the pandemic has taken on urban areas. At least CLE showed more inbound than outbound address changes.

Perhaps the start of a rebound post 2020-2021 given the slight growth the metro area saw in the 2020 census.

Post-pandemic period will be interesting for the population and political shifts.

[Jbraybarten653]

I thought that IRS data was used for migration? Also, that seems like that would be more concrete than the USPS which could include confusing data as some people have more than one address etc.

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten653

I thought that IRS data was used for migration? Also, that seems like that would be more concrete than the USPS which could include confusing data as some people have more than one address etc.

Don't worry, CLE metro isn't attracting population. The USPS data doesn't mean anything. The IRS follows this stuff as well and is used as a component of population estimates yet, estimates often end up being too high or low at census time.

So far, the discussion of the USPS 2022 data has only been labelled ''interesting'' so don't worry that anyone in CLE is breaking out the celebration champaign and confetti streamers.

Nothing positive for the CLE area except the city high-rise building boom at least compared to its in-state city peers.

[Ann Hearst]

This is the trend which is driving this change. Look at the data and make up your own mind about it.

“Remote Work Drove Over 60% of House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...inds#xj4y7vzkg
“Wonking Out: How the Remote Work Craze Made Housing Affordability Worse”
https://web.archive.org/web/20230304...ces-covid.html
“The Californians Are Coming. So Is Their Housing Crisis.; Is it possible to import growth without also importing housing problems? “I can’t point to a city that has done it right.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/b...ng-crisis.html
"California Ex-Pats Driving Up Home Prices in Nashville, Atlanta and Austin. Golden state workers are outbidding locals in secondary markets sometimes by up to 50%.”
https://www.globest.com/2021/01/22/c...ta-and-austin/
“This Town Was Paradise, Then Everyone Started Working From Home,” by Vice News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhElNHGN9KY
“Housing prices boom as workers move to Austin, Texas, abandoning high living costs in California”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LazM77WrThM
“The remote workers have left, but the housing havoc they created remains,”
by NBC News
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/eco...ains-rcna68874
“Ketchum grapples with housing crisis, tables plan for tent city”
“What happens when people who work in a town can no longer afford to live there.”, by Idaho News 6

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_xHA2bwB_U
"Sun Valley: If You Lived Here, You’d Be Homeless By Now,"
https://www.idahopress.com/boiseweek...34d4a749a.html
“Inequality Grows in Western Zoom Towns,”
https://www.planetizen.com/news/2021...ern-zoom-towns
“The Next Affordable City Is Already Too Expensive (Published 2022),"
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/b...ve-cities.html
“Digital Nomads: 'Workcation' or Colonization? Working from a vacation destination sounds like a dream, but the reality is more sinister than it seems.”
https://www.34st.com/article/2021/09...hite-supremacy
“Mexico City and the pitfalls of becoming a remote work destination,”
The city has become a remote work playground for expats. Meanwhile, rising housing prices and inflation have made it more unaffordable for locals.”
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/229997...gentrification
“Digital Nomads are Ruining all the Good Places.”
“Reports on the destruction of Mexico City, Lisbon and Bali”
https://www.corbettbarr.com/p/digita...uin-everything
“Welcome to Portugal, the new expat haven. Californians, please go home! Portugal, with its warm climate, plentiful sun and cheap cost of living, has become a destination for Californians.”
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...ocation-lisbon
“Californians Flee the Coast to Inland Cities in a Mass Pandemic-Era Exodus”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/califor...us-11637521731
“Digital Nomads are Ruining all the Good Places.”
https://www.corbettbarr.com/p/digita...uin-everything
“Is California to blame for soaring home prices in Idaho and Utah?” As home prices in the West, especially in Utah and Idaho, continue to soar — and as both states see in-migration adding to their population — eyes locally and nationwide are turning, perhaps resentfully, to what’s happening in a major state to the West: California.
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/1/...est-home-house