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Old 03-15-2011, 05:57 AM
 
700 posts, read 2,943,022 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaAppraiser View Post
I simply go into the MLS, enter the search criteria and click "reports", select the report type I wish to generate and hit enter. Fannie Mae now requires a marketing conditions report in all appraisals which contains both median listing and sales prices over a 12 month time period. That's where I got the median home prices for Wilmington. That information is not available to the public though. You have to be a member of the MLS to get it.

That figure of $158,500 for January 2011 is accurate but it includes all single family properties. Homes, condos, manufactured housing, modular homes, ect. The statistic I quoted was for site built homes only since the other stuff wasn't relevant to the conversation concerning builders.
Anyone can get the correct value of their home on Zillow.
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Old 03-15-2011, 06:55 AM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
1,676 posts, read 5,357,669 times
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Anyone can get the correct value of their home on Zillow
Look how Zillow explains their methodolgy of price guessing:
What is a Zestimate? - Zillow Advice

Zillow gives the following example: Zestimate is $260,503; Value Range is $226,638-$307,394
That's shooting the side of a barn with a shotgun blast and cherry picking the pellets you like best.
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Old 03-15-2011, 09:54 AM
 
Location: NC
128 posts, read 432,716 times
Reputation: 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida15 View Post
Anyone can get the correct value of their home on Zillow.

Zillow is an automated valuation model (AVM) and is good for providing a general range of value over a defined market area but it is rarely accurate for a specific property for a host of reasons. AVM's can't determine the condition of the subject property, they rely on tax record information for physical characteristics and they are unable to determine which closed sales in the area are comparables and which are not. If AVM's like Zillow were accurate banks would use them for mortgage transactions.
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Old 03-15-2011, 10:41 AM
 
22,769 posts, read 26,222,576 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Martin View Post
You need restrictive mortgage lending to repair the markets.
Sure, as long as everyone recognizes that more restrictive lending will gut housing prices even further. I am going to do some quick and dirty math. Feel free to correct any assumptions made here.

the average family in Wilmington makes about $42,000. After federal, state, and local taxes that looks more like $30k, take home. We will ignore for a moment, that Wilmington has the highest credit card debt (per income) than anywhere in the nation, even though that's probably taking out a big chunk of wealth.

If that family saves 3% of their salary for a downpayment (which is an awful lot, once you account for food, car, health insurance, living expenses, and the 5% they are saving for retirement. God forbid they have children), then how long would it take to save up 20% ($32k) on a 160,000 home?

By my calculations, they take home $30,000/year, 3% of that is $900/year. So at that rate, it would take them about 36 years for the median family to save 20% for the median priced home.

Last edited by le roi; 03-15-2011 at 11:33 AM..
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Old 03-15-2011, 12:46 PM
 
Location: NC
128 posts, read 432,716 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Martin View Post
You need restrictive mortgage lending to repair the markets. Only those that are considered good risks should be allowed to borrow such huge sums of money. Yes it is painful right now. But if they keep the standards high you will end up with a housing market with few foreclosures and is much stronger overall.

If they had kept the standards high to begin with the housing crash would never have occurred. Stick to 28/36 and everything will be fine. ARM's should be eliminated. Although they are low now they will be rising in the future.

One of the reasons Bernanke holds the rates where they are now is the massive impact that raising rates would have on state and local budgets. With huge budget deficits around the nation (NC's is something like $3.6B) many, many governments have to borrow increasing amounts of money to pay their bills. Right now there are only a relative few municipal defaults and bankruptcies occurring. Try to imagine what would happen if bond rates suddenly rose right now by 2 or 3 points. Many governments that are only holding on by their finger tips would loose their grip.

He will raise the rates but only when a certain type of inflation starts to occur. Everybody these days is wondering just how much inflation there needs to be before Bernanke will raise the rates. Well the inflation he's looking for just hasn't occurred.

Bernanke is looking for inflation in money or the general supply of money in the economy. Although it's well known that the Fed has been "printing" money that money is not making it's way into the economy. Up until 2008 there was plenty of money in the economy. The Fed was slowly raising rates (not fast enough as it turned out). Everybody had access to easy money from the banks.

Then the crash occurred and the banks pulled back big time. Unemployment soared, it's actually much higher than the headline U-3 rate. People stopped spending and the supply of money in the economy contracted. And that is still where we are today. There has been a slight improvement but not nearly enough to become concerned about there being too much easy money.

You get stuck between a rock and a hard place with interest rates. If you raise them right now to combat price inflation you kill money supply. If you keep them low to increase the money supply then you have to fight price inflation.

The point is the longer the rates are held low the higher they will climb when the Fed finally does raise them. That will kill anybody stupid enough to get an ARM. Most people have no business with an ARM. It is gambling with what will be the largest asset that most people will ever have.
The restrictive mortgage lending I was referring to is the lack of conventional lending on properties other than single family homes. Conventional lending on condominiums and manufactured housing is almost non existant and very difficult to qualify for and a 40% down payment requirement for vacant lot purchases is basically the industry standard right now. I'm not suggesting we return to the lending environment that was prevalent during the housing boom but when someone with a 10% down payment, a steady job and a good credit score can't qualify for an entry level property purchase it has a negative affect on the real estate market.
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Old 03-15-2011, 03:36 PM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
1,676 posts, read 5,357,669 times
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CarolinaAppraiser,
I applaud all of your posts in this thread. My sincerest wish is for all to understand that its not arm chair quarterbacking.
Bill
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Old 03-16-2011, 03:50 AM
 
Location: Greenville, NC
2,078 posts, read 5,042,551 times
Reputation: 1160
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaAppraiser View Post
I'm not suggesting we return to the lending environment that was prevalent during the housing boom but when someone with a 10% down payment, a steady job and a good credit score can't qualify for an entry level property purchase it has a negative affect on the real estate market.
I agree.
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Old 04-17-2011, 06:24 PM
 
155 posts, read 202,285 times
Reputation: 36
Carolina Appraiser? What small town has lower housing? I am retired and considered winterville. New bern looks expensive. How about the spartenberg area of SC? I see SW airline goes there now......
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Old 04-18-2011, 09:40 AM
 
Location: NC
128 posts, read 432,716 times
Reputation: 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by schil View Post
Carolina Appraiser? What small town has lower housing? I am retired and considered winterville. New bern looks expensive. How about the spartenberg area of SC? I see SW airline goes there now......
I don't have any specific knowledge in the SC area and Winterville and New Bern are not in the area that I work. Generally speaking housing is cheaper in rural areas and will be cheaper inland than it will be near the coast. I imagine that is the case in the areas you mentioned. I think Bill works up that way so maybe he'll see this post and chime in.
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