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I'm starting to see slight improvements in the housing market in the 3 counties that my office covers which are Pender, New Hanover and Brunswick. For each appraisal report we complete we are required to provide the lender/client with a marketing conditions form which is a statistical analysis of listings and sales for a defined area covering a 12 month time period. I generate dozens of these reports each month so I am hyper-sensitive to changes in my market area. Over the summer the ratio of sold properties versus active listings has increased especially in the rural markets. It fact today is the first time in several years that market data indicates that supply and demand are actually in balance in the mainland area of Pender County. Our office has also seen a sharp increase in appraisal requests related to purchases in just the last 5 or 6 weeks. This may just be a result of our typical summertime bump but I'm optimistic this will continue into the fall.
Bill, Im interested to know if this is consistent with what you are seeing in your area.
Thanks for posting this, I was going to ask about it - as my rental home seems to have toxic mold - and I think I'm done renting. I moved from Durham, where housing costs are low but I believe the market is healthy, and am somewhat hesitant to buy here in Wilmington given that I know people who are saying they wished they'd rented rather than bought (values went down). But, I like being near the ocean. But, I don't know that I'll want to be here for five years.
(thoughts ?)
(ugh - hoped to buy next year, not this year)
If you have the option to wait versus buying now I would recommend waiting. Property values in Wilmington are still declining although that trend appears to be slowing. We haven't hit the bottom yet but I'm hoping we're real close.
The sold to inventory ratio that CarolinaAppraiser talked about is a great way to gauge a market. It's called the Absorption Rate. It is a way of determining the amount of inventory a market has. It is expressed in terms of months.
In a normal stable market the absorption rate or supply of inventory is around 6 months. Theoretically this would mean that if at the current rate of sales and with no new inventory coming on the market then all of the listed properties would be sold off in 6 months.This is why listing agreements use to be for 6 months.
Below is a crude but accurate historical chart of the supply of inventory of homes in the Crystal Coast MLS system. Again-The number by each year/month is the number of months or supply of inventory of homes. 6 is the magic number.
Year July June
2011...19....16
2010...22....13
2009...21....17
2008...19....15
2007...17....13
2006...10.....7
2005....4.....4
2004....5.....4
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Whether it continues into the fall or not will have a lot to do with interest rates. We'll have to wait a week or two and see if the downgrade by S&P has any effect. Monday could be interesting.
thanks for the messages here. we are considering seriously a move to wilmington area. think hampstead is looking good right now: close to beach and wilmerville.
thoughts?
also, we're looking for land to buy. do we pay for perc tests?
Richard Martin said: "Whether it continues into the fall or not will have a lot to do with interest rates. We'll have to wait a week or two and see if the downgrade by S&P has any effect. Monday could be interesting."
And folks-Do NOT let a Market Report for a specific area scare you away. Remember-Market Reports reflect the seller's position in the market. Bad market-Bad for the seller. Good market-Good for the seller.
If you're a buyer-especially investor buyer-Look for "bad" markets.
Another point I can't repeat enough-Too many people look at a market as a whole and do not look for the target specific opportunities. Although here in the Crystal Coast over-all market price hasn't changed much in 3 years-There are always numerous "Gotta Sell" golden sales going on.
Bill
PS: I'm not implying that these opportunities are exclusive to the Crystal Coast market. They are everywhere. But I'm not everywhere so contact a qualified real estate buyer's broker in the market you are interested in and look for those golden opportunities!
If you have the option to wait versus buying now I would recommend waiting. Property values in Wilmington are still declining although that trend appears to be slowing. We haven't hit the bottom yet but I'm hoping we're real close.
I'm a qualified buyer in Wilmington. I've been sitting on the fence for over 3 years, while prices decline.
My opinion is that the market is still overpriced for anything under about $500k. Over $500k, I don't know.
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It would seem that interest rates are having an effect on mortgages. Apparently in a bad way. There is speculation that the interest rates are too low now and their reasoning makes sense. Banks are reluctant to lend because the risks outweigh the benefits. With the risk being ongoing home depreciation, risk of foreclosure and having to tie a significant amount of money up in a 30 year note at only 4.5% interest.
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