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Old 06-07-2015, 07:58 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
383 posts, read 746,407 times
Reputation: 214

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I think you have to look at the context of where the course is. In a retirement type community like St. James, Golf is a major part of the attraction to this location. Most members will join the club. The additional homes being built will help fund the clubs via increasing membership revenues. I have noticed that after noon the use of the courses drop. Making the course semi-private and letting non members use it in the afternoons could be an option. The sale of the clubs is probably 5 years away, so I am not going to worry about it.
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Old 06-07-2015, 08:23 AM
 
4,663 posts, read 7,776,855 times
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Golf play among the Baby Boomer generation is down. Nationwide.

Lot sales fund the clubs.

Once all lots are sold.......what's going to replace the cash flow from lot sales?

Dos anyone know precisely how many active golf memberships there are at SJP?
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Old 06-07-2015, 08:39 AM
 
907 posts, read 1,534,357 times
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The reason no one is out late in the afternoon is no one wants to play late in the afternoon, members or pay for play golfers. I did the search for the future of golf and it was even more dismal than I had thought. As the SJP population ages and the new residents pass on golf there will be much less play and the corresponding revenue. Non golfers want the beauty of the course but will they be willing to pony up when they become a financial burden?

As an example of increasing costs 5 years ago I would pick up Scott's 4 Step for $100, now it is $220, how may bags does a golf course use?

I love the courses and the community but the reality is that all of that comes at a price and it appears that the price is going up.
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Old 06-07-2015, 09:38 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
383 posts, read 746,407 times
Reputation: 214
The courses are not only funded by the memberships associated with lot sales but also with monthly dues. I am sure there are also substantial reserves to help support the golf courses. When people retire what do they do? A lot of them play golf and that is why they are attracted to the community. I think there will always be a pipeline of retirees who will move here for the facilities. The question is, will the cost price them out? In that case, they may try to balance that cost of the leisure against the cost of purchasing a home. I think once the community is built out you may see pressure on home values, which is why building at SJP may not be the best investment, but lets face it, people live here for the quality of life. They are not necessarily concerned about maximizing the cash value when they move on.
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Old 06-07-2015, 09:51 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
794 posts, read 1,645,460 times
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The average house that is built / purchased in St James is upwards of $600k when completely finished..... the vast majority of these homes are purchased / built with cash ... no mortgages..... as I mingle with many other homeowners I see that they are quite happy and not particularly concerned with the fee structure at all.
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Old 06-07-2015, 10:01 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
383 posts, read 746,407 times
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I agree with you Stoney. You can't compare the profile of residents at SJP with the population at large. SJP will survive the transition of the clubs from the builder to another party. I am not losing sleep over it.
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Old 06-08-2015, 07:38 AM
 
567 posts, read 940,685 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PonyPride View Post
I think you have to look at the context of where the course is. In a retirement type community like St. James, Golf is a major part of the attraction to this location. Most members will join the club. The additional homes being built will help fund the clubs via increasing membership revenues. I have noticed that after noon the use of the courses drop. Making the course semi-private and letting non members use it in the afternoons could be an option. The sale of the clubs is probably 5 years away, so I am not going to worry about it.
I tend to agree with Pony Pride - with mostly retirees building in Brunswick County, Golf IS a major attraction.....boomers still like to play golf - and some even take it up entering retirement.....
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Old 06-10-2015, 07:52 PM
 
16 posts, read 38,857 times
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I just don't understand why they built so many courses. I think two would have sufficed.
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Old 06-11-2015, 10:42 AM
 
4,985 posts, read 2,234,404 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocngypz View Post
Golf play among the Baby Boomer generation is down. Nationwide.

Lot sales fund the clubs.

Once all lots are sold.......what's going to replace the cash flow from lot sales?

Dos anyone know precisely how many active golf memberships there are at SJP?
I have not heard anything that that indicates lot sales fund the clubs. Indirectly lot sales fund everything in SJP but memberships primarily fund the clubs.

There are no doubt a lot of numbers to crunch when thinking about running 81 holes of golf as a business. Many of these numbers I simply do not know.

I have heard, from a pretty reliable source, that The Clubs can support 1,500 golfers.

At build out, there are estimated to be between 6,000 and 8,000 residents.

These two numbers indicate that about 20% of the build out residents could be, or would need to be, golf members.

The current monthly golf dues are about $400 for a single, $500 for two.

Average that at $450 x 1500 and you get about $675,000 a month or $8.1 million a year in dues.

Boost that a bit with Sport and Social memberships, restaurant and bar income and guest fees.

I would think the developer would walk away with most if not all the membership fees but new members at some point would also add to the bank account with membership fees to the new owners.

I have read that a 18 hole course can support about 400 golfers a day. That seems a bit crowded to me but if so, 1,500 golf members could play on one course or another every day.

Almost all of this is somewhat speculative based on build out numbers. If build out doesn't occur for another 10-15 years, who can predict what membership fees will be then.

I have no idea what membership numbers/income/expenses for The Clubs are currently.They certainly appear to be solvent with good maintenance and upgrades occurring almost daily.

If owners continue to support SJP and its amenity's over the next 20 years as they have the past 20, coupled with continued good management, I would say the future holds promise. I would assume most residents feel the same or they would not be there to start with.
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Old 06-27-2015, 02:32 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
383 posts, read 746,407 times
Reputation: 214
With the new rules governing the golf courses, can non members property owners pay to use the Members driving range? If not, are there any public driving ranges in the immediate area?
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