Crystal Coast Home Sales Down 46% Since 2005 (Raleigh: for sale, real estate market, foreclosures)

[Bill Hitchcock]

[giffman]

I think sales are down 46% because the average sold price hasn't budged much from what it was in 2005. Sellers are still holding on to peak prices. If the red bar goes down, the blue bar will go up.

[Bill Hitchcock]

giffman,
I quite agree-Prices must come down! Folks are hanging on to outdated prices. We produce a television program that airs nightly and this topic has been the corner stone to our market trends and analysis report.
Bill

[Bill Hitchcock]

Inventory, otherwise known as the absorption rate factors the rate inwhich properties come on the market for sale and the rate inwhich they go off the market as sold and calculates how long it would take to sell off all of the inventory currently on the market.
6 months is considered a normal, stable market. This is why listing agreements are usually for that length of time.
Bill

[den1jen]

Bill,
I wonder what inventory would be if you factor in the ones not on the market waiting for it to get better, the ones in foreclosure process and also all the lots in subdivisions for sale. Also a fair amount of the demand I think was artificial due to flipping. Please note I am not in real estate, but I did sleep at an Holiday Inn Express.... sorry.....

I heard about 2 really nice subdivisions (lots going for 150K+) in the mountains that have shut down and we drove by another last weekend that was totally closed up and looked like it had not been maintained for awhile.

We currently live in the Raleigh area (FV) and are thinking of coastal property since our boys are pretty much on their own now. I think this 'funk' will last longer than what most people think so we are taking our time to narrow down the areas. I am probably wrong but I think this (downward price trend) could last another 3-5 years. As I have said not a real estate professional just my opinon.

I would enjoy hearing your view on this, also what is your opinon on how high insurance rates might go. I know very subjective, but all things being equal would it matter if you were say within 1 mile of the beach or 5+ miles from the beach.

Thanks in advance!

[Bill Hitchcock]

den1jen,
Foreclosures are not an issue for the Crystal Coast or the Neuse River MLS systems. The following is an excerpt for an editorial I did for the Carteret News Times:

"What about foreclosures? This is something we hear about almost on a nightly basis from all major news outlets. According to Realtytrac.com the 2008 first quarter rate of foreclosure nationally is 1 out of every 194 homes. In North Carolina that rate is 1 in every 392. For the Crystal Coast and surrounding Neuse River area it is less than 1 in every 2,000 homes. Foreclosures are not an issue.

So why aren’t people buying? Simple-Attitude and perception.

A real estate market is determined to be good or bad solely from the sellers prospective. When prices and sales are down it is presented as a bad time for real estate. This only helps to perpetuate the bad market in that it discourages buyers from buying.

The best buying sign there is, is to hear a seller bemoaning the market conditions.
This fact has not escaped all buyers. Late spring/early summer saw 30 day time periods where as much as 24% of all sales were cash. This is not only an indication of the liquidity of the Crystal Coast buyer, but of the buying opportunity this area presents."
-end quote-

When it's bad for the seller-The real estate market is "bad". But when its bad for the seller it's great for the buyer.
Kind of like when the fish aren't biting-The bait is real happy!!!!

[giffman]

Originally Posted by Bill Hitchcock

giffman,
I quite agree-Prices must come down! Folks are hanging on to outdated prices. We produce a television program that airs nightly and this topic has been the corner stone to our market trends and analysis report.
Bill

Bill,

I applaud you for what your doing. I'm sure it's not easy for a realtor to tell a prospective client that they're unrealistic on the asking price. The unfortunate thing about the real estate profession is that if a seller doesn't like what you have to say, they will shop around until they find a realtor that tells them exactly what they want to hear.

[Bill Hitchcock]

giffman,
There is a practice called, "Buying a listing". This is when a real estate broker tells the seller an exaggerated price (one that he knows is inaccurate and above what the other agents are saying) simply to get the listing. Then, after a few months and the house isn’t showing-much less selling-the agent tells the seller that the market has changed and that they need to lower the price.
In my opinion-this is the number one reason why prices haven’t really changed that much and consequently why our sales have plummeted. I speak only for the MLS area’s that I serve.
It cost me money to sell a house. In fact-It cost me thousands of dollars to sell a house. I am not going to take a listing that I know will not sell-Why should I throw money away? And-In my opinion-The primary reason why a home doesn’t sell in the Crystal Coast and Neuse River MLS area is because it is over-priced.
The facts bare it out. 2008 is the worst sales year on record. July saw a 21 month supply of inventory. If you reach the user group, the potential buyer (which we do and do well) and a home doesn’t sell-Then price is more than likely the determining factor.
Bill