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Old 12-11-2009, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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Home sales along the Crystal Coast have been holding steady for the past few months. And with one exception, sales have mirrored 2008 as well. The one exception being last November. The month of the Presidential election saw sales plummet.
But something else is mirroring last year- Price. The average sold price for a Crystal Coast home is virtually the same as it was last year. (See chart)



The main problem with the Crystal Coast real estate market has been that homes have been priced too high and too much inventory has been on the market. The true gauge of a markets condition is its absorption rate. The absorption rate is when you factor together the rate in which properties come on the market for sale and the rate in which they go off the market as sold. Expressed in months, the absorption rate shows how long it will take to sell off the entire inventory currently on the market.

By most standards-A normal stable market has a 6 month supply of inventory. In other words-If no new homes came on the market, it would take 6 months to clear it all out. This is why a listing agreement traditionally (or should I say use to be?) was for 6 months. Take a look at the chart below



You can see that 2005 was the last year the Crystal Coast area had a “normal” market. Inventory started stock piling up after that until it reached an unbelievable 33 month supply in 2008.
Now I realize that I am only concentrating on one month-But when I see prices stabilizing and inventory thinning I get highly encouraged.

Bill Hitchcock
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Old 12-14-2009, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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I thought I'd continue on with the above post:

Below are the actual number of sold homes. Note the “Presedential Dip” in sales November 2008 that I mentioned earlier


But the underlying problem with the Crystal Coast market really hasn’t been the sales, but rather the “for sale”. Our market can only handle so much inventory. There has been no mass exodus to our coast to warrant all of the homes that have been offered up.



This all brings us back to 2005 when we last had a normal real estate market. We must reduce the price thus reducing the inventory so we can achieve a means level in our housing market.

The biggest problem I have encountered has been the sellers refusal to understand that price is like the tide. It ebbs and floods. And no matter how hard you try-You can not change the market you are currently in.

Bill Hitchcock
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Old 12-15-2009, 10:47 PM
 
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Normal real estate market in 2005? You been smokin that peace pipe again. Perhaps you have heard something about a housing bubble?
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Old 12-18-2009, 04:13 PM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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It has been interesting to watch how homes have been financed. The scales have shifted from a conventional loan dominated market to a VA Loan market-with Fha loans much higher too.
The one thing that has been very consistent have been cash sales. The Crystal Coast market seems to maintain a 12-14% average. This has held true through out all boon or bust times.
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Old 12-22-2009, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Newport, NC
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When you look at another website, the biggest difference in cost of living between coastal NC and other parts of the country seems to be the cost of homes. If a person purchases a home with cash in coastal NC, is it correct to assume that the difference in cost of living is no longer a factor?
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Old 12-22-2009, 01:38 PM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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The coastal home purchase, as in beachfront/waterfront is not coming from the local economy. It comes from folks outside of the area with jobs and incomes that exceed the local norm.
So if you subtract out those properties (beach & waterfront) then you'll find that our local housing market is more in-line with elsewhere. Obviously being 5 minutes from the beach will bump the price up more so than a home 100 miles inland-But all in all the prices are what you would expect inland.
You'd be surprise how high and how low prices can be along the coast and the inner banks region. Sometimes there doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to it.
Bill
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Old 12-22-2009, 02:25 PM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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I thought folks might like to see the 2009 YTD sold prices of homes in select coastal areas and the precent difference between this year and last year.
Bill

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Old 12-23-2009, 09:44 AM
 
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Hi Bill,

When I look at these charts, the first thing that stands out to me, is how they begin in 2004.

You say 2005 was a normal market. The statistics I have seen indicate that our last "normal market" was more like 2001-2002. It should be noted that median incomes in North Carolina have been steadily shrinking since 1999, corrected for inflation.
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Old 12-28-2009, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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Normal market as defined by the absorption rate (supply of inventory). 6 months is considered the "norm". It is why listing agreements are usually for 6 months.
Bill
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Old 12-30-2009, 08:02 AM
 
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Rtom45,
Sorry for the lateness in this reply ....What is happening to me anyway, as well as a lot of other home buyers is that the cost of the home is only one factor in the cost of living ....When a home is already paid off , you are still left with other items to pay for which I'm sure you know ....In N.C. those items are far less expensive on a monthly/yearly basis ....Let's consider that a home in NY is paid for , and a similar home in N.C. is paid for .... I will give you my home as an example and a nice comparable home in the Swansboro area .....Both homes being close to a city , and both homes having approx 2500 sq ft, and both homes having approx 1/2 acre of property .... Food is very much the same price no matter where you go in the country, so that is pretty much a wash ....Utilities are big $$, and so are taxes .....In N.C. I estimate a home like mentioned would be approx $6,000 in taxes and HOA fees...I am figuring $300 a month for utiliities ....$3,600 ......I could be high or low here ...I'm going by what I've heard and not what I know to be sure with these NC prices ....Round it off to $10,000 a year for taxes, HOA, and Utilities ...... This is for a house by a river or a golf course, and all the fee's included ....My home in N.Y. is already a higher cost of living with the taxes alone !!!....Taxes alone are over $10,000 a year !!....You don't even want to know the cost to belong to a Golf Course, and to have a house anywhere near the water is at least 3 times the price of one in NC .... Utilities for my house are about the same in the Winter as they are in the hotest months of Winter ....You are looking at $750 a month MINIMUM for this convienience .... Granted the money earned is substantial in NY, but if you are not working , very few folks here can afford to live where they have lived all their lives , and paid taxes all their lives, and it's really sad ...
You are forced to leave your life, your friends , your younger family members , and the life you have built for yourself and your family, only because of the cost of living it WAY too high to afford it !!... This is the reason for so many people from NY coming to your beautiful state to have a few good years of life after busting our butts for so many years and paying and paying and paying and paying till we can't pay anymore ....Jim
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