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View Poll Results: Who wins?
Oregon 40 54.05%
Auburn 34 45.95%
Voters: 74. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-08-2010, 01:14 PM
 
18,136 posts, read 25,664,806 times
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OK people let's ratchet down the rhetoric a tad here.

 
Old 12-08-2010, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Wrightwood, California
2,098 posts, read 3,440,604 times
Reputation: 884
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
You begin multipart argument with a really pointless comparison and then expect us to take all subsequent points seriously? That's the kind of stuff lazy sportswriters pull when they're trying to blow air into a story and don't have enough column-inches of actual substance to fill up the empty space on the page. I mean, if you use Oregon's gaudy numbers as the foundation of your argument, then I get to use mine. While I don't doubt for a skinny minute that Oregon is an exceptionally talented team, SOS is a heck of a lot better measure of what a team has done over the course of the season.

No, I don't think the SEC is the end-all, be-all gold standard of football and I certainly think Auburn has flaws, but to dismiss SOS is to expose oneself as a dilettante, a dabbler, the equivalent of unleashing a massive fart when you first take the microphone on American Idol. After all, allegedly championship BCS teams such as Ohio State have boasted some pretty impressive statistics after mincing their way through football's equivalent of pillow fight, only to start pissing peach pits when they encountered a team that had, week in and week out, been through football's equivalent of murderers row.

So go ahead and keep working on your opus. But while you state that you'll devote 30 more days to your prognosticating, this isn't a promising beginning. It's akin to having a couple of egregious typos on the first page of your novel and saying, "But wait! It gets better!" I'm thinking sheep entrails will prove more accurate.
Lighten up, Francis.

I'm failing to find where I specifically pointed out stats that will point to a Duck win. As stated before, this was just a side by side comparisons of how both teams rank. I didn't knock Auburn's SOS. I stated they had some great wins, some average wins, and some not so hot ones. But, all championship teams have close games. However, there may be some curious folks that might actually want to hear what a Duck fan has to say about the game plan of the Ducks from a casual point of view.

<Edited>

Last edited by Orangeish; 12-10-2010 at 04:22 PM..
 
Old 12-08-2010, 04:12 PM
 
2,714 posts, read 4,262,759 times
Reputation: 1314
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acuda View Post
Lighten up, Francis.

I'm failing to find where I even stated any points arguing the Ducks will win. As stated before, this was just a side by side comparisons of how both teams rank. I didn't knock Auburn's SOS. I stated they had some great wins, some average wins, and some not so hot ones. However, there may be some curious folks that might actually want to hear what a long time Duck fan has to say about the game plan of the Ducks from a casual point of view.

So go hop on your soapbox and preach to someone else.

Peace
It is true that the Ducks racked up a lot of statistics based off their easier opponents. I would like to see some statistics of how the ducks fared against Stanford and Arizona (quality opponents).

I think a comparison of Oregon vs Stanford and Oregon vs Arizona statistics to Auburn vs Alabama and Auburn vs South Carolina statistics would be pretty accurate as far as telling which team is better.

Last edited by Orangeish; 12-10-2010 at 04:23 PM..
 
Old 12-08-2010, 04:45 PM
 
28,896 posts, read 53,932,532 times
Reputation: 46662
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acuda View Post
Lighten up, Francis.

I'm failing to find where I even stated any points arguing the Ducks will win. As stated before, this was just a side by side comparisons of how both teams rank. I didn't knock Auburn's SOS. I stated they had some great wins, some average wins, and some not so hot ones. However, there may be some curious folks that might actually want to hear what a long time Duck fan has to say about the game plan of the Ducks from a casual point of view.
<orphaned reference>
If you were being completely honest, you'd go back and look at your original post and realize that you had already stated pretty clearly your belief that Oregon was going to win. All you were doing was laying the foundation for your argument with a bunch of bogus statistics as a way to rationalize it. In that sense, your statement that, "All that SOS is beaten to death as that is not really insight" is just another way of saying, "Hey, this set of statistics don't jibe with my eventual prediction so I'm going to pretty much ignore them."

As far as what people want to hear, I think they're interested in a little better argument than, "Ducks Rule!" Personally, I'd enjoy some back-and-forth about the merit of each team without getting into their respective star players' arrest records. <Mod cut, referred to orphaned quote> In that sense, there was no suspense on how your prediction was all going to turn out, Jeter, flawed as your reasoning might be. I just figured I'd cut to the chase and save you all that typing.

Last edited by Orangeish; 12-10-2010 at 04:24 PM..
 
Old 12-08-2010, 04:49 PM
 
28,896 posts, read 53,932,532 times
Reputation: 46662
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyclone8570 View Post
It is true that the Ducks racked up a lot of statistics based off their easier opponents. I would like to see some statistics of how the ducks fared against Stanford and Arizona (quality opponents).

I think a comparison of Oregon vs Stanford and Oregon vs Arizona statistics to Auburn vs Alabama and Auburn vs South Carolina statistics would be pretty accurate as far as telling which team is better.
Thank you. Hey, I'm not doubting that Oregon is a good team. I'm not even being an SEC homer here. I'm just saying that if one's SOS ranking is way down in the 70-80 range, then those zowee offensive statistics suddenly become a great deal less impressive and thereby subject to question.
 
Old 12-09-2010, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Southeastern Tennessee
711 posts, read 1,137,486 times
Reputation: 383
I have to say Oregon. Both sides are competitive but I think Oregon would win.

Oregon 35-31.
 
Old 12-09-2010, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Hernando, FL
749 posts, read 2,426,310 times
Reputation: 540
Really astonishes me this poll is so close. Auburn has shut down the best the SEC can throw at it and yet folks still somehow believe Oregon has a chance? This so called Quack Attack or whatever is going to get exposed, badly.

The Ducks are kinda like 9th graders that hang around the elementary school bus stop and give beatdowns but it will be an entirely different outcome when they encounter Auburn who is the equivalent of a busload of angry 800lb. gorillas .

One only needs to look at what Auburn's D did to McElroy......poor kid, he probably is still foggy and seeing stars. It will be bad, like Nebraska hanging 62 on the '95 Gators kinda bad.
 
Old 12-09-2010, 10:37 PM
 
Location: Wrightwood, California
2,098 posts, read 3,440,604 times
Reputation: 884
My Oregon Plan For Victory (as prognosticated through sheep entrails)

This game will be a battle of wills at its very core. Sure, all games, certainly National Championship Games, are battles of will. But this one has the making of a real war. Offensively, both teams will want to do what they have done all year, run the dang ball. Auburn would like to rely on Cam Newton running the ball. Oregon would like to rely on using their small backs, James and Barner, to run the ball. Both DCs know this and will have to figure out a way to slow things down. Here is what I am thinking the Ducks can do on offense to, well, score more points than Auburn.

Part I: Offense- How can the Ducks score more when they have the ball?

1. Control the line of scrimmage.
2. Consistently and effectively stretch the field.
3. Set the tempo.
4. Make “game adjustments”

Well, gee, that is really every offense's game plan, isn't it? Yep, but I think the Ducks will need to do some things to achieve that. I also think those four goals are very attainable.

How to even begin to control the LOS?

Well, first off, the Ducks have all 5 starters back on the OL. They have been responsible for opening up holes for a Heisman Trophy candidate/2010 Doak Walker winner all year. They have eventually worn down all other DLs they have played. They average about 300 lbs (Auburn’s DL averages 304ish), so size is really a push. The key to Oregon’s attack will be to neutralize that madman Fairley and the rest of his band of roving marauders, something that is easier said then done. Oregon has had success against three future DL NFL players: Stephen Paea (OSU), Cameron Jordan (Cal), and Jurrell Casey (USC). So they do have experience going into this game (although I think AU's line is better than Cal, USC, and OSU). Fairley gets most of the accolades and is truly a beast. It’s possible that the offensive line could keep control of AU’s DL, but I think they will need to alter the play calling to keep the AU front 7 guessing. Fairley really needs to be dealt with or he will be in the backfield all night. So, here is how I’d do it.

I’ve seen teams try and double team Fairley and that just leaves gaps for Carter and Clayton coming from the other side. The Ducks do not and will not do that. The Ducks run a Zone-Read Offense. Thomas will read the DE and decide to either keep it or hand it off. AU has a huge front 4. I feel AU will plan for this ZRO and will implement Ohio State’s plan or Cal’s “Magical Plan (something that really doesn’t exist).” If they don’t use a spy on Thomas, I think Oregon will have an easier time on offense. Thomas is not quite the runner as Masoli, but he can easily get down the field for 15 yard runs at a time. I believe the Ducks will have the most success by running the Triple Option (TO) and countering with outside plays-fly sweeps, reverses and option. The Triple Option is something many Duck fans have been waiting to see more of. We have begun to dabble (with success) in it as of late and that leads me to believe we see a heavy dose of it in the NC. We have an outstanding backfield, fast as all get up, and will be looking to unleash more of it on Jan 10. The TO could come in many different forms with Thomas, James, Barner, Huff all a threat to take it (Thomas the least of the threat). The catalyst is Darron Thomas and he must make the right reads all night. AU has not seen the TO before (to my knowledge) and certainly hasn’t seen a backfield this explosive in this type of spread (not even in practice IMO). The TO is not as easy to stay in your lanes as the ZRO. This TO should freeze Fairley (in theory) and allow Thomas to give it to the inside (where UO runs a lot), take it, or pitch it out to the other back. Plus, he can also pass it out to either a slot or go over the top to the TE if AU secondary bites. So, when so many offenses were getting abused doubling Failey, the Ducks will try and perfect their offense to the point where it actually limits Fairley.

Also, I see the Ducks utilizing the Fly Sweep as I think the Ducks are capable of getting outside when there are three options on the field at once. We will also run to the outside far more in the NC than we have all year. During the Civil War we saw a new twist in our offense which had both our TE and WR block down on the OLB (not the DE- which was neutralized with the ZOne Read) allowing our fast scat backs to get around the corner. Our WRs are excellent downfield blockers. That cannot be stated enough. With that many proven weapons on the field, AU will become a bit more hesitate and that should allow the OL to begin to control the line. AU had considerable difficulty dealing with a smaller back earlier in the year (Ellington- 140 yards). Without a doubt Oregon has better backs and Clemson finished ranked as the 73rd best rushing team. If that TO does prove to be effective, that AU defense will begin to tire as that TO will be run at a lethal pace if it is succeeding. Plus, TO is a b***h to defend. I think we will see gaps beginning to open more and more as the night wears on. Now, if we do not execute, we find ourselves in 3rd and long and that could be a big problem. I think we should be able to execute though.

Here's a bad video of Oregon going Triple Option:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MnzMsRlsmc

How can Oregon stretch the field?

Well, many believe that AU’s secondary is suspect. They do rank way down on pass defense. But, I don’t think it is as bad as it seems. Plus, I think players like Bell have been getting better as the year has rolled along. The key for Oregon is two fold: Get separation from AU’s dbs and Thomas has to hit his receivers. DT has struggled as of late, but I feel he should be able to hit those mid range passes that AU has struggled to defense all year. Fairley and company will be coming and if we can neutralize that pressure effectively, we can also begin to go down field. I think the Ducks will begin the game passing. Look for more quick slants, bubble screens, and our TE Paulson should have a big day. I think some people really got carried away when they claimed Cal had the “magic plan.” Cal, who has some very good players (but seem to not play disciplined ball at times), essentially played man and spied DT, much like Ohio State, did. Both did it really well. However, before sending checks to Cal’s DC, one thing is always left out. Both times our QB failed to hit open receivers. It had less to do with man coverage and more to do with the failure of the QB. Besides, Ohio State’s defense last year was beter than AU's. Also, look for Oregon to run the option to the outside, and throw back across the field. We have used that for scores the last two games and I can see AU getting overly aggressive at times to stop that running game (if it is working). I also would love to see us lined up 5 wide and open it up. However, the likelihood is not great. Another possibility is a form of the wildcat with Huff as QB. He was a QB in HS down in Houston so that could be interesting. Now, if DT is off, AU will stack the box (much like OSU and Cal) and it could be a long night. But, I’ll bank on AU’s secondary to struggle with Thomas. He has nearly as many TDs as Luck, who is not slouch himself, and has a low int rate as well.

How can Oregon set the tempo?

It’s easy. Ran the plays faster. The Ducks have been known to run a play every 19 seconds (at times as fast as 13 against USC). The Ducks will have 5 weeks to execute the plays faster. Every big game we heard that tempo would not be an issue and every game the defense was gassed. Now, AU will have practiced against a fast offense all year. However, it still isn’t as fast as the Ducks. Plus, if Oregon is running effectively (especially the triple option), that DL will certainly be gassed as it is difficult on any DL (not just AU).

Can Oregon make adjustments as the game wears on?

Yes. Anyone who has seen an Oregon game is well aware that the Ducks outscore their opponents by a large margin in the second half. Kelly will often attempt things over and over to see if there are weaknesses in the defensive armor. When he sees something he’ll go right back and attack. In all honesty, it can drive me up the wall as it appears like he is becoming too conservative. A good example of an impressive adjustment is when Oregon killed off Cal on a 9 min Death March. We went from looking to score quickly all year, to calculated dink and dive plays. Set to music it would have been a slow dirge. There are a few other adjustments I have heard some real X’s and O Ducks have suggested that seem like they would work.

So, offensively I think we have more than a sporting shot at outscoring Auburn. And if UO uses my patented Couch Potato Game Plan, I'll even guarantee it!

So, how in the world is Oregon going to stop Auburn...sheesh, let me think more. I have no clue. I'll get to it later. I'll need a beer for that one.

Last edited by Acuda; 12-09-2010 at 11:30 PM..
 
Old 12-10-2010, 01:28 PM
 
28,896 posts, read 53,932,532 times
Reputation: 46662
Interesting reading of the sheep entrails, one for which I have no time to respond. However, I'll point out a big problem with this statement:

"It’s easy. [We] Ran the plays faster. The Ducks have been known to run a play every 19 seconds (at times as fast as 13 against USC). The Ducks will have 5 weeks to execute the plays faster. Every big game we heard that tempo would not be an issue and every game the defense was gassed. Now, AU will have practiced against a fast offense all year. However, it still isn’t as fast as the Ducks. Plus, if Oregon is running effectively (especially the triple option), that DL will certainly be gassed as it is difficult on any DL (not just AU)."

Auburn's defense is actually far stronger in the 3rd and 4th quarter then in the 1st and 2nd, due to really good conditioning. If you look at the scoring summary of Auburn games over the past season, you'll find that opposing team tended to do the bulk of their scoring in the first half of the game rather than the second. This is a trend that became pronounced in the latter part of the season. So I don't think the notion of wearing down Auburn's defense is a viable strategy.
 
Old 12-10-2010, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Cook County
5,289 posts, read 7,442,333 times
Reputation: 3105
Thread reopened. Making point/counter point is great, personal attacks and belittling others is against the TOS, please refrain from said activities.

With that said, I flipped a coin for this game in my office pool, it came up heads, which told me to take the points. So since I don't have a dog in the fight......Go Ducks!

Last edited by Orangeish; 12-10-2010 at 04:26 PM..
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