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Now that Oklahoma has lost, I am convinced Boise State will make it to the national championship this year. Here is how...
Current BCS Standings:
1. LSU (undefeated)
2. Alabama (undefeated)
3. OK-State (undefeated)
4. Boise State (undefeated)
5. Clemson (undefeated)
6. Stanford (undefeated)
7. Oregon (1 loss)
8. K-State (undefeated)
9. Oklahoma (1 loss)
10. Arkansas (1 loss)
- LSU beats 'Bama
- OK-State will lose to Oklahoma (like they always do)
- Clemson will probably lose this weekend at GT, if now, they will definitely lose to South Carolina at the end of their schedule
- Oregon will beat Stanford...
- K-State will lose to a ton of teams including Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, A&M
-LSU will beat Arkansas
-LSU beats South Carolina in the SEC championship game
-There is no big 12 championship game
-Oregon wins the Pac 12
When all this occurs, Oregon will jump way up in the rankings-- but the voters don't want to see an Oregon vs. LSU rematch. The voters will effect the harris poll and coaches poll which is built into the BCS forumula. Thus count on this as the final top 5 BCS rankings:
Current BCS Standings: 1. LSU (undefeated)
2. Boise State (undefeated)
3. Oregon (1 loss-- to LSU)
4. Alabama (1 loss-- to LSU)
5. Oklahoma (1 loss-- to Texas Tech)
... Thus ensuring a LSU vs. Boise State national title game. Book it.
They've put 2-loss teams in the championship game before [LSU in the 2007 season], along with teams that failed to win their conference championship [Oklahoma in 2003]. I don't really see any way Boise will be let in, even if they were one of only two undefeateds.
It's not helping that another high-profile mid-major, Utah, is currently struggling in the Pac-12. I think Boise is better than they are, but it makes it hard not to buy the argument that those type schools would not be undefeated if they were to play a BCS conference schedule.
They will vote in a 1 loss OU, OK State, LSU, and Alabama over an undefeated Boise
They will vote in a 2 loss LSU or Alabama over an undefeated Boise.
Its quite possible a 1 loss Clemson, 1 loss Oregon or even 1 loss Stanford jumps ahead of Boise.
The only possible way I can see Boise even having a sniff at the national championship:
LSU loses to Alabama
Alabama loses to Auburn
Arkansas beats LSU
Arkansas then loses to either South Carolina or Tennessee, pick whatever you want it doesn't matter
Georgia/South Carolina beats Alabama in the SEC championship game.
OK state loses to K-state & OU
K-state loses to OU and Baylor
OU loses to Texas A&M
Stanford beats Oregon, but then loses to USC & Notre Dame
Oregon loses to Stanford & USC
If all those things happen Boise actually should play for the championship (Since USC is ineligible for a bowl), but the the odds of all that happinging are probably less then 1 in 100 million.
I think Clemson beats GT, and they definitely wont lose to South Carolina. If GT doesnt get them, they have a pretty good shot at finishing undefeated.
But I agree with some of the others here--a matter of fact, they may come up with a scenario we havent seen yet in order to make sure Boise doesnt get in...
I don't know if I would count Boise St. entirely, but they would need some help. I think that when LSU and Ohio St. ended up in the Sugar Bowl, voters weren't quite convinced that Boise St was for real. People thought that their game against OU was a fluke, especially considering they needed to pull out all the stops and in OT to beat a Sooners team that, while good, wasn't exactly the best in OU school history.
I think the perception of Boise St. is different now. They beat Oregon at the beginning of the 2009 season in a dominant performance. They've had some other notable victories along the way, and I think people are beginning to get the fact that Boise St. isn't necessarily the one ducking; other opponents duck them just as much, if not more, knowing that 1 loss to BSU ends their national title aspirations almost instantly.
BSU probably *does* have a shot, but they would need the current crop of undefeated teams to drop like flies. I think that's the bigger danger here is that BSU's undefeated season is going to be put up against two or three others, and BSU's won't as impressive. I agree that unless Arkansas (a team that's still very relevant, btw), LSU, and Bama all somehow drop two games, an SEC team will be one half of the BCS title game, and I have no problem with that given their success over the years. To displace SEC you gotta beat an SEC team in the big game.
The question is, who's going to play Bama, LSU, or Arkansas? First, even though I'm an SEC guy, let's go ahead and dispel outright the possibility of an all-SEC title game. I don't think the voters will realistically consider an intra-conference rematch for the simple reason that viewers outside of the Gulf Coast wouldn't be the least be interested, and the network big wigs who really run the show wouldn't allow it.
That leaves what's left of the ACC, and more realistically, the PAC 12 and Big 12. I would have counted in Big 10 until last week. Wisconsin was looking really good until they slipped, but a loss to a Michigan St team that get torched last year against Alabama eliminates the Big 10. Given that OU has been in the BCS game before and failed every time since 2000, I think voters are going to give someone else a shot even if they don't lose again. That leaves us with Clemson, Okla St., Oregon, and Stanford as possibilities. I agree that Oregon would need LSU to lose, but if that happens, that could jeopardize their chances, so the Ducks wouldn't want that. If Bama or Arkansas wins, I think Oregon's got their inside track as long as they beat Stanford and win the rest of their games. And if Stanford wins, well, they're waiting with Clemson, and voters would probably give the West coast school the nod.
The way that Boise State gets in is if BCS chaos happens. If Stanford ends up beating Oregon, but gets stunned in some other game, then Boise State could get in. They would need Clemson and Okla St. to lose as well. I think that if we have another November like we did in 2007, Boise State would get much stronger consideration this time. The problem is, what happened in 2007 was rather rare. Most of the time, the major teams are going to take care of their business. If I had to guess, I'd say that it will be the winner of the SEC against Okla St.
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