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Old 03-26-2012, 08:24 AM
 
Location: Round Rock, Texas
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Wouldn't surprise me if they eventually join the Big XII.

UT's Deloss Dodds has had some cordial talks with them over the past year or two.

Plus the Domers would retain their Tier 3 TV rights.
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Old 03-26-2012, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Chicago
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Originally Posted by e_cuyler View Post
It's been less than 20 years [okay, barely] since ND was in the national championship picture, which is not really that long. I think it would take at least a few decades for their "brand" to decline to where no conference would be interested.
you could be right, ec. but to my way of thinking, the time clock on college football started to spin out of control somewhere in the 90s when Penn State joined the Big Ten. I don't have to tell you what followed.

today we have a musical chairs relationship in college conferences. the collective memory stops at, say, a week ago (so 20 years falls into the ancient history category).

It's context of the time, ec. the game is in total flux, with nothing even comparable in its history.

If Texas A&M can leave Texas and Mizzou can leave Kansas and Boulder is on the West Coast and WVa on the Great Plains, well...anything can happen.

I'm not suggesting that a conference would not be interested in ND; they'd be crazy not to. But I do think there are only so many "slots" out there and now a days, they are being filled.

ND has to be thinking 5, 10, 15 years down the road. There is no question that ND and the Big Ten have been playing footsies for 3/4 of a century, a bid from one or the other, always (so far) rejected. The first overture was in the late 1920s and it came from ND.

I am rather convinced that if the Irish want to (or have to) go conference, the B10 is their choice for obvious reasons: location, existing rivalries, academic link and academic prestige.

UNL took a major "slot" (although I'm not sure if the B10 would freeze frame at 12), one that ND may have coveted for future use.
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Old 03-26-2012, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Chicago
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Originally Posted by ScoPro View Post
Wouldn't surprise me if they eventually join the Big XII.

UT's Deloss Dodds has had some cordial talks with them over the past year or two.

Plus the Domers would retain their Tier 3 TV rights.
What do you think of the long term survival prospects for the B12, Sco? I've got my doubts.

Nebraska's defection was hardly surprising. It feared the B8-SWC link when it was created because of the fear it had of the schools to the south. OK, A&M is out of the mix. But the 800 pound gorilla, Texas, is still there.

Question is, do the likes of the remainder (KU, K-St, Ia St) want to deal with it indefinitely.

Besides, who in the Big 12 does ND have any relationship with? There's not a school out there that it does.

Contrast that with the B10: MSU and Purdue are permanent rivals. the Michigan-Notre Dame series is one of college football's classics. Northwestern has been on ND's schedule some 40 or so times. IU is instate. Ohio State-Notre Dame has rings of Mich-ND to it.

There are no comparable relationships for the Irish. The Pac 12, of course, offers the huge USC-ND rivalry, but second place is way, way in the shadow: Stanford-Notre Dame.

The ACC offers BC (nicely Catholic) and Ga Tech (a rivalry, but not one of the biggest for ND).

Where else is a logical home but the B10?
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Old 03-26-2012, 11:36 AM
 
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Notre Dame would have been a perfect fit for the Big 10. Geographically they are in a perfect location and they usually end up playing 2-3 Big Ten teams every season in Football. I don't understand why the football team won't join a conference when the basketball team has.

It's not like ND has been a top tier football team at any point in the last 15 years.
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Old 03-26-2012, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Chicago
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Originally Posted by TAM88 View Post
Notre Dame would have been a perfect fit for the Big 10. Geographically they are in a perfect location and they usually end up playing 2-3 Big Ten teams every season in Football. I don't understand why the football team won't join a conference when the basketball team has.

It's not like ND has been a top tier football team at any point in the last 15 years.
and the real question is what will they do about basketball if the Big East goes belly up? Seems to me that there aren't a lot of good options there.

among the major conferences in basketball (and, yes, I'm thinking of ones that are BCS schools), the Big East is the only one that would even consider offering ND a b'ball slot without the whole program (inc. football) as part of the mix.

Does anyone really think any of the other conferences out there (I think that would be pretty much limited as far as scheduling possibilities and other cultural reasons) the Big Ten or ACC would let ND have such an arrangement?
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Old 03-26-2012, 12:07 PM
 
Location: Round Rock, Texas
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Originally Posted by edsg25 View Post
What do you think of the long term survival prospects for the B12, Sco? I've got my doubts.

Nebraska's defection was hardly surprising. It feared the B8-SWC link when it was created because of the fear it had of the schools to the south. OK, A&M is out of the mix. But the 800 pound gorilla, Texas, is still there.

Question is, do the likes of the remainder (KU, K-St, Ia St) want to deal with it indefinitely.

Besides, who in the Big 12 does ND have any relationship with? There's not a school out there that it does.

Contrast that with the B10: MSU and Purdue are permanent rivals. the Michigan-Notre Dame series is one of college football's classics. Northwestern has been on ND's schedule some 40 or so times. IU is instate. Ohio State-Notre Dame has rings of Mich-ND to it.

There are no comparable relationships for the Irish. The Pac 12, of course, offers the huge USC-ND rivalry, but second place is way, way in the shadow: Stanford-Notre Dame.

The ACC offers BC (nicely Catholic) and Ga Tech (a rivalry, but not one of the biggest for ND).

Where else is a logical home but the B10?
The ones who caused the instability in the first place have left.

The new TV contract would've been impossible if the TV guys thought the B12 had no future.

So the B12 is a possibility, especially if the $$ are right., and there's nothing to prevent ND from scheduling those other schools (including USC) as OOC games.
Even Texas has something of a rivalry with ND.

But yeah, the B10 probably has a better shot of landing them, and ND building another big rivalry with PSU (they could call it the Pedo Bowl ).
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Old 03-26-2012, 07:02 PM
 
Location: Chicago
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Originally Posted by ScoPro View Post
The ones who caused the instability in the first place have left.

The new TV contract would've been impossible if the TV guys thought the B12 had no future.

So the B12 is a possibility, especially if the $$ are right., and there's nothing to prevent ND from scheduling those other schools (including USC) as OOC games.
Even Texas has something of a rivalry with ND.

But yeah, the B10 probably has a better shot of landing them, and ND building another big rivalry with PSU (they could call it the Pedo Bowl ).
i hope you're right. the Great Plains and Texas are great college football country. I hate to see the mass exodus that has already occurred.
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Old 03-27-2012, 08:25 AM
 
203 posts, read 278,333 times
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I think it could look like this:



Which I think is the best possible outcome we could turn this realignment mess into....

If the BCS decides that you must win a conference to be int he 4-team playoff (or whatever they decide to do), than Notre Dame would be forced to pick a confernce.

Than (if I where Jim Delany) I would get on the horn to Pitt and try to get them to pull a TCU. That is, just to a better conference before you fully commit to the one youre planning on switching to.

This alignment would give Notre Dame;
- Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota, as divisional games every year (besides Minn those are all considered traditional rivals to some extent)
- Pitt would be played every year as a protected inter-divisional rivalry (another rival protected for every year)
- And their 8th conference game would rotate between (OSU, Wisc, PSU, Ill, Ind, and Iowa)
- USC, and Navy would obviously get scheduled every year as well.
- That leaves 2 open spots to fill with rivals BC, Army, or Standford, or anyother teams they would want to fit in there.

The rest of the protected Big10 rivals would be OSU-UM, Wisc-Minn, PSU-MSU, Ill-NW, Ind-Pur, Iowa-Neb. Works out rather nicely, and not to bad a situation for Notre Dame if they have to join a conference...

Eventually the other pieces would fall into place naturally, and the three conferences of 18 (or 6 conference of 9, depending on how you look at it) argue for the 8-team playoff where every conference champ gets in, creating a de facto 16 team playoff. This is fair since the 'mid-major' conference teams have a 11% chance to get into the playoff, while the power conference teams have a 14% chance, plus get home field advantage to start (if they are a top 4 seed)
.
.
.
.
I imagine the format above coming to fruition if the BCS makes 1 very simple rule... A team must win a conference championship game to get into the BCS post-season (whatever for that takes).

This would require:
1) every conference has enough teams (12) to justify a conference championship game, and
2) all Independants would need to join a conference of 12+ if they ever want into the BCS

I dont think they will make this rule anytime soon because ND would probably fight against it, and they still have substantial weight in BCS decisions (where power is derived from TV contracts/markets, and ND still has the largest. But as mentioned earlier, it may become necessary for ND to consider conference play out of other necessity: The Big East (basketball specifically) may no longer seem appropriate for them or dissolve entirely, scheduling may become difficult as conference play expands elsewhere, etc.

But that rule has too much logic behind it to never be considered, since the only equitable way to determine a single national champion out of a pool of 120+ is to have focused divisional play determin divisional winners, conferences take it to the next level, and a tournament eliminate teams via direct play.

Last edited by jasomm; 03-27-2012 at 09:09 AM..
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Old 03-27-2012, 05:43 PM
 
Location: Chicago
5,938 posts, read 6,560,207 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jasomm View Post
I think it could look like this:



Which I think is the best possible outcome we could turn this realignment mess into....

If the BCS decides that you must win a conference to be int he 4-team playoff (or whatever they decide to do), than Notre Dame would be forced to pick a confernce.

Than (if I where Jim Delany) I would get on the horn to Pitt and try to get them to pull a TCU. That is, just to a better conference before you fully commit to the one youre planning on switching to.

This alignment would give Notre Dame;
- Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota, as divisional games every year (besides Minn those are all considered traditional rivals to some extent)
- Pitt would be played every year as a protected inter-divisional rivalry (another rival protected for every year)
- And their 8th conference game would rotate between (OSU, Wisc, PSU, Ill, Ind, and Iowa)
- USC, and Navy would obviously get scheduled every year as well.
- That leaves 2 open spots to fill with rivals BC, Army, or Standford, or anyother teams they would want to fit in there.

The rest of the protected Big10 rivals would be OSU-UM, Wisc-Minn, PSU-MSU, Ill-NW, Ind-Pur, Iowa-Neb. Works out rather nicely, and not to bad a situation for Notre Dame if they have to join a conference...

Eventually the other pieces would fall into place naturally, and the three conferences of 18 (or 6 conference of 9, depending on how you look at it) argue for the 8-team playoff where every conference champ gets in, creating a de facto 16 team playoff. This is fair since the 'mid-major' conference teams have a 11% chance to get into the playoff, while the power conference teams have a 14% chance, plus get home field advantage to start (if they are a top 4 seed)
.
.
.
.
I imagine the format above coming to fruition if the BCS makes 1 very simple rule... A team must win a conference championship game to get into the BCS post-season (whatever for that takes).

This would require:
1) every conference has enough teams (12) to justify a conference championship game, and
2) all Independants would need to join a conference of 12+ if they ever want into the BCS

I dont think they will make this rule anytime soon because ND would probably fight against it, and they still have substantial weight in BCS decisions (where power is derived from TV contracts/markets, and ND still has the largest. But as mentioned earlier, it may become necessary for ND to consider conference play out of other necessity: The Big East (basketball specifically) may no longer seem appropriate for them or dissolve entirely, scheduling may become difficult as conference play expands elsewhere, etc.

But that rule has too much logic behind it to never be considered, since the only equitable way to determine a single national champion out of a pool of 120+ is to have focused divisional play determin divisional winners, conferences take it to the next level, and a tournament eliminate teams via direct play.
a very nice job on set up and graphics, Jasomm....did you design both?

I do like your Big Ten successor (North 14); Iíd definitely go along with ND and Pitt being the best additions.

I like the way you loaded up the Big 14 with old SWC schools in Texas.

I think youíd get a fight out of the two UCís (Cal and UCLA) by putting a CSU school like Fresno into your Pac 14 (although the Calif legislature would like it). I do see why you chose Fresno from a competitive perspective, but donít you think from a popualtions (and thus suport) factor, putting SDSU might have been better; with major conference membership, I think the Aztecs might be well supported.

I have some questions about your ACC because frankly I donít tink that conference can handle all the southeast, Middle Atlantic, and New England schools. I think there may still be a need for a Big East (or something comparable).

Iím in complete agreement with you about an 8 team play-off based strictly on conference champions. My problem is I donít know if your 3 mid majors are worthy of it, although your MAC gives promise of a rise to that status as the m ajor coonference of the Rocky Mountain region.

All and all, a very nice spin on things, Jasomm. Kudos to you.
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Old 03-27-2012, 07:20 PM
 
203 posts, read 278,333 times
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Thanks edsg. I appreciate it.
The graphic is just an excel spreadsheet with a white background. I found this to be the best way to shift around conferences visually. Ive been following this stuff since 2005 when i finished Ohio State (bigten) and started my Geography MA at Uconn (bigeast) during the whole ACC-BigEast mess at the time. I did a project at the time involving shortest travel distance based conferences, not a serious consideration, but an interesting perspective.

Id push for the three mid-major football conferences to get spots in the tournement because you never know when a team like Navy, UCF, So.Miss, or even a FIU, plays over their head and go undefeated or something. Then they cry foul that they didnt get a chance to prove it was legit against the big teams. This way they have that chance, but you'll notice the first 4 seeds get home field. So either the cinderella is for real and upsets on the road, or the big team dispatches them like a cupcake, and essenily get a bi. No harm no foul.

As for the ACC im not sure what you mean. All i did was replace the departed Pitt with UConn. The rest is as it will be in 2014. I just realigned the divisions to have the old bigeast team together, and added the nearest (and Vatech familiar) Maryland and UVA to the bigeast-based division.

Fresno was the last, and toughest call for this chain of events. It basically came down to Fresno, Hawaii, and San Deigo St. I gave it to Fresno based on academics, research, and endowment size. Which is more important in the Pac12 and Big10 than typical conferences. But it really could be any of them. SD St would help out their basketball at this point actually.

Really though, the layout is not a raw restructuring, like most people through out there. Its more like im looking at what would happen if that 1 new rule where put in place. It starts with ND and Pitt, UConn fills Pitts spot, Bis12 takes two more big east schools, and the conference collapses. Independant BYU needs to make the same change as ND to a conference, Hou and SMU ask to join Big12 seeing 14 teams is the new standard, while the pac12 gets their 14th. MAC adds marshall before any of this happens (replacing Temple) but once the bigeast falls apart they snag Rutgers, Navy, and Army to try an legitimize the conference more, and takes back temple. They set the president for 18 team midmajor setup ( 0-1 inter-divisional regular season games) and the two others (WAC and SAC) form once the NCAA floats an 8 team playoff idea.

Sorry for the long exaination. But i got back there for anyone interested.
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