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Again the SEC is not expanding just because it can. The goal is to add new markets to the league. If thats the goal of the other conferences also, then it will IMO look like this when every thing shakes out.
ACC Atlantic
Boston College
UConn
Syracuse
Pitt
Navy
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke
ACC Coastal
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest
Miami
East Carolina
South Florida
Central Florida
Big Ten East
Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Indiana
Big Ten West
Purdue
Illinois
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Iowa St
Nebraska
Big 12 North
Kansas
Kansas St
Oklahoma
BYU
Air Force
West Virginia
Louisville
Colorado State
Big 12 South
Texas
TCU
SMU
Baylor
Houston
Texas Tech
Oklahoma St
UTEP
Pac 12 North
Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon St
Stanford
Cal
Colorado
Boise St
Pac 12 South
Arizona
Arizona St
Utah
UCLA
USC
UNLV
San Diego St
Fresno St
SEC East
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
Vandy
Tennessee
North Carolina St
Virginia Tech
SEC West
Alabama
Auburn
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Missouri
Tulane????
Miss St
I think I got my crystal ball to work. I think I now know where the whole college conference alignment thing is going. Not where it should be going, mind you, but where it will go.
and I realized in my moment of epiphany that Notre Dame will join a conference and that conference will be the Big Ten. (I really thought that ND would pull off the continued independent status with its sweetheart ACC deal, but with UMd and Rutgers going to the Big Ten, I've seen the light.)
It is now clear that four conferences are poised to dominate college football. and these four conferences will keep the new format of a 4 team play-off with the added change of their conference champions automatically going to the big game.
Notre Dame loses out as an independent. It will have to go somewhere. And that choice has now become obvious: with its traditional midwest base, the Big Ten now adds to the offerings with the best of the east, a place where ND covets even more than its own backyard. And the new Big Ten can offer up the region far better than the ACC in the form of the prized markets: NYC (Rutgers), Philadelphia (Penn St), Washington (UMd), and Baltimore (UMd); the ACC can over offer up one market, Boston (BC), to those 4.
The Big East is dead big time as far as a major player. And the Big 12 cannot expand and is the likely target of picking up the remaining pieces.
Here's the deal: all 4 major conferences will have 16 teams. The Big Ten, ACC, and SEC need to pick up 2 each; the Pac 12 needs to pick up 4. That's ten teams that will be filtered from undoubtedly mostly from the Big 12.
So what might the new set up look like? Not what it should, again, mind you, but very well might. I think it might flush out as follows:
BIG TEN
Nebraska
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Illinois
Michigan State
Michigan
Indiana
Ohio State
Purdue
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers Notre Dame
Iowa State
ACC
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Virginia
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
NC State
Duke
Wake Forest
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami West Virginia
Kansas State
SEC
Texas A&M
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss State
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Missouri Baylor
Kansas
PAC 12
Wash State
Washington
Oregon State
Oregon
Cal
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Colorado Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Okla State
I think that 64 number will be a lock. again, not what it should be, but what it is. so somebody is going to get locked out. I could very well be wrong about who. The schools I didn't seed.....TCU, BYU (and i think these private schools will have less leverage in the issue than state schools like K-State and ISU) in particular have a major case and could replace some on my list. But that's two teams and there aren't many more that even would be considered.....maybe UConn, UCF.
One way or another, they will get to 12 conferences, 16 teams each, 64 total. and they will control the 4 team play-off. For Notre Dame, Texas, and others, the handwriting is definitely on the wall.
another prediction: I'm fairly sure the Rose Bowl game will continue as a Pac 12-Big Ten matchup; but with the super conference status, the game will be on steroids as the semifinal. the other semi, i predict (but with less certainty) will pit those two southern oriented conferences, the SEC and the ACC, in....on an altering year basis.....the Orange Bowl and the Sugar Bowl.
You are mistaken. The conference that will collapse is the ACC. Big 12 is stable now and the teams make much more than the ACC. ACC is unstable and the wolves are moving in on it.
I personally don't like 16, or even 14 team conferences. That's too many teams and it also prevents teams from play one another on a regular basis. Under a 16 team conference format, you could have a team go 4 years without playing a team from another division within the conference.
as the OP, I'm totally with you, TAM88. I hate the concept. So what I think is going to happen is not something I'm happy about.
To me, the best set up for a conference would be 12 teams, an 11 game round robin, no divisions, and a conference championship game only if 2 or more teams tie at season's end.
You are mistaken. The conference that will collapse is the ACC. Big 12 is stable now and the teams make much more than the ACC. ACC is unstable and the wolves are moving in on it.
one can make such an argument. i think the reason why i see the Big 12 as more vulnerable is location. if geography has any meaning left (not totally sure about that one), than the central location of the Big 12 serves the ability to pick up the pieces more than the east coast location of the ACC.
yes, i agree with you that there are teams in the ACC that would be every bit as vulnerable as those in the Big 12, but the question remains: where would they go.
I can't see other options other than the Big Ten and the SEC. and considering that out of the 5 major conferences, the Pac 12 has the most slots to fill (4), it would seem to me that that makes the Big 12 fairly vulnerable. Let's face it: the Pac 12 won't be getting any ACC members.
one can make such an argument. i think the reason why i see the Big 12 as more vulnerable is location. if geography has any meaning left (not totally sure about that one), than the central location of the Big 12 serves the ability to pick up the pieces more than the east coast location of the ACC.
yes, i agree with you that there are teams in the ACC that would be every bit as vulnerable as those in the Big 12, but the question remains: where would they go.
I can't see other options other than the Big Ten and the SEC. and considering that out of the 5 major conferences, the Pac 12 has the most slots to fill (4), it would seem to me that that makes the Big 12 fairly vulnerable. Let's face it: the Pac 12 won't be getting any ACC members.
Big 12 actually has a much bigger TV audience than the PAC. I am not sure why the PAC is paid so much. They are a decent football conference, but nothing like the Big 12, which is well rounded. The PAC is not the most attractive conference. PAC can expand from existing Western schools in other conferences.
If conferences go to 16 teams than 10 possible could be raided from the ACC. A few teams would get the raw end of the deal, and might have to drop a division in football. Even if they stay at 14 teams the Big 12 could raid the ACC for 4 teams, In this case the ACC would survive but would be even weak than it is now.
Big 12 actually has a much bigger TV audience than the PAC. I am not sure why the PAC is paid so much. They are a decent football conference, but nothing like the Big 12, which is well rounded. The PAC is not the most attractive conference. PAC can expand from existing Western schools in other conferences.
If conferences go to 16 teams than 10 possible could be raided from the ACC. A few teams would get the raw end of the deal, and might have to drop a division in football. Even if they stay at 14 teams the Big 12 could raid the ACC for 4 teams, In this case the ACC would survive but would be even weak than it is now.
Perhaps the real catalyst for change will be that 800 pound gorilla in the room. Texas. Again, I think you make some reasonable claims about the Big 12. But I also suspect that if it appears that that 4 super conferences with 16 teams is getting closer to reality, I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas jump to the Pac 12 and bring TT, OU, and OK St with it.
No way the SEC takes Baylor... No way
The way I see it, SEC only expands to 16 if they can get VA Tech, UNC, NC State, TX, or OK
This. Right now, the SEC is targeting UNC/Duke. If they can seperate UNC from Duke, then UVA or VA Tech is next. If B1G goes past 16 and FSU is not one of them, SEC will likely add FSU as #17 (or #18 if UNC/Duke/either VA school).
Perhaps the real catalyst for change will be that 800 pound gorilla in the room. Texas. Again, I think you make some reasonable claims about the Big 12. But I also suspect that if it appears that that 4 super conferences with 16 teams is getting closer to reality, I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas jump to the Pac 12 and bring TT, OU, and OK St with it.
Why would they want to jump ship when they control the Big 12, which also lets them have the Longhorn network. They are the leader of the Big 12. The last thing they want is to see it broke up. If UT wanted out of the Big 12 they could have gotten out by now.
This. Right now, the SEC is targeting UNC/Duke. If they can seperate UNC from Duke, then UVA or VA Tech is next. If B1G goes past 16 and FSU is not one of them, SEC will likely add FSU as #17 (or #18 if UNC/Duke/either VA school).
There's nothing tying Duke to UNC. The former is a private school, while the latter is public. Both are accountable to different constituencies. I think both schools are working to keep the ACC together. GTech, otoh, may be as weak as Maryland and would jump to B1G if distance wasn't an issue. I guess it's waiting on the Big 12's next move.
Why would they want to jump ship when they control the Big 12, which also lets them have the Longhorn network. They are the leader of the Big 12. The last thing they want is to see it broke up. If UT wanted out of the Big 12 they could have gotten out by now.
Texas, like ND, marches to the beat of its own drummer. It could very well decide to go the independent route if the $$$ is greater down that path.
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