Just the forum I needed, I was hankering for fantasy realignment masturbation.
(Naturally none of this happens any time soon if the Big 12 gets its act together and just grabs BYU and Cincy, details below).
JJG you seem very egalitarian in your appeal for a 16 team playoff. College Football is indeed probably the most elitist and gatekeeping of all major American sports. That being said, while overblown, I do think there is some merit to the argument of potentially the regular season being a tad diluted in a sense with such a large pool. Then again, I suppose you make up for it with the excitement of a playoff.
Realistically speaking, due to the strong gatekeeping culture of the sport, likely attention will be focused mainly on the 4 cream of the crop superconferences in the ACC, Big 10, SEC and Pac however many.
As a quick commentary though, I think the Irish are more likely to the Big Ten as there is more money to be made by leveraging both their massive fanbases in Chicago and NYC. Given that, the ACC would best pick up West Virginia, UConn, Cincy and Temple, yes Temple....which I will explain down below.
NOW ON TO MY THEORIES AND TWO CENTS. If any one has any answers or comments that do not devolve in to immature flame wars, feel free to contribute.
There are a lot of variables at play that would affect how the dominoes fall.
1.
How relevant is potential cable revenue going forward in the next 20 years? The media landscape is evolving and cable companies and networks will be hard pressed to continue charging such high fees all around for a shrinking pool of consumers.
2.
How relevant IS academics to all this? Nebraska not being a part of the AAU and still getting into the Big 10. Louisville NOT being an elite school and getting into the ACC, etc. I think that the arguments revolving around academic and cultural fits become even more irrelevant if this Pandora's box is opened.
3.
Can strength in basketball help off set some weaker football prowess? Honestly in terms of marquee adds just based on football acumen and football audience there are very few options.
Really I think it all comes down to
Texas,
Oklahoma and
Notre Dame and
WHO GOES WHERE FIRST. Oklahoma is apparently tied at the hip to Okie State (not a sexy pick despite all the hard work they've done). Texas can write it's own ticket but apparently is too sophisticated for the SEC (along with the Sooners apparently). Therefore the Pac 12 makes sense.
After that there are only a few more really good football grabs, they are;
BYU - Honestly, I wonder if the logistics of no sunday sports would not be offset by the big cash infusion by joining a major conference. If the Big 12 does not take them. Then I advocate the Pac taking them. Yea yea culture, blah blah blah. The money to be made with the national Mormon market seems worthy of a look. Utah may or may not be very fond of the idea though, to say nothing of the more liberal college presidents in the rest of the Pac. But BYU, Texas, Oklahoma and some other random place and you will have owned realignment wars.
Notre Dame - So yea, Big 10. Why? Because besides obvious cultural and regional fit and huge brand name, the biggest college football team in New York City IS the Irish, as is cited here in the NY times. Rutgers AND the Irish? Fogget about it!
http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/201...nt-chaos/?_r=0
From there, It's a stretch....
West Virginia - Both a solid pick up in football and basketball, decent enough brand name for those who remember not too long ago. Could move TV national ratings. Currently odd man out in the Big 12. However, sparsely populated home market hurts them in local revenue streams though. My dream as an ACC guy is that we snatch them up and start the Backyard Brawl up again with Pitt. If you look up TV ratings, that was always a good ranker in viewership.
UConn - Obvious basketball cred, but no real football cred. Despite the work done by Edsall, they still do not have strong recognition. You do get a well heeled fanbase and alumni base with reach into the New York market though. Admittedly, only makes sense for a few conferences. Big 12 or maybe ACC given certain circumstances.
Kansas - basically the same as UConn. I believe that if it gets into a strong conference, it could have potential but the only places that make sense logistically are the SEC and Big 10. Would either conference want the huge project that is Kansas football? I would just hate to see the basketball program out in the cold is all, I guess. Ironically, SEC would make the most sense for recruiting (Texas inroads, plus juice from Border War with Mizzou as added bonus) but the competition would be DIRE.
And finally all the other places are just "Well, they are the best we can do at this point" kinda places. Potential upsides but come with a lot of baggage.
Cincinatti - under rated football school frankly. Not a power of course but good mid major with probably a bit of room to grow. Decent fanbase, good school, making investments in program reportedly. From what I hear anecdotally, Cincy is like Memphis, Miami or Louisville where it is the main topic in the metro and not the big state school, which could bode well for ratings in a decently sized market in a good recruiting area.
Memphis - basically same as Cincy but with more skepticism on the football side. It is just so early in the post Fuente era that it is a real risk to take them on. Is it sustainable? Decent basketball cred though.
USF/UCF - Basically potential Big 12 fodder. I bet dollars to donuts that the Big 3 Florida schools do NOT want to help their little brothers rise up and steal from their plates! Still access to big markets with room to grow.
Temple - This is a conditional mention. So yea. If 4 super conferences happen, then the ACC is in a pickle if they don't get Notre Dame. I don't see them merging with the Red River Rivals or Kansas. Temple is a risk but potential upside is real penetration in the Philly market. I have roots there so I can say that Philly is it's own universe vis a vis the state of Pennsylvania.
Penn State has a following but does not DOMINATE mind share. If a Philly team got into a major conference and competed for championships, you would have a large potential audience. Basically Boise State phenomenon with a Miami (FL) sized potential market. Would need to make major investments though which would be very controversial with current academic staff.
Still, If you add the two together and both continue to improve on the field you could carve a surprisingly strong niche in PA by grabbing two of the largest schools in the two largest metro areas. PSU maybe would still edge out in terms of total fan numbers but the Temple/Pitt combo would not be far behind at least as far as providing ACTUAL Pennsylvania eyeballs to the ACC.