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Old 01-07-2016, 12:58 PM
 
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I have everything set up and ready to go, but have to wait for the final AP poll which will come out the day after the NCG.

This will allow me to properly seed the 2015 teams and also see if there will be one more entry from this season, which would knock out the 2004 Pittsburgh squad (the one that got throttled by unbeaten Utah in the Fiesta that season).

The tourney will consist of 192 teams from the last 20 seasons. I did a preliminary write up about team selection here.

The first 64 teams get a bye and the remaining 128 have, essentially, a "play in" type game.
This will feature team 191 vs 192, and the winner will face the #1 seed all the way to teams 65 vs 66 with the winner playing #64, etc.

There are eight brackets with 24 teams each (16 after the "play in" round concludes). Each bracket is arranged to form a "big bracket", where bracket #1 winner will play bracket #8 winner, #2 vs #7, #3 vs #6 and #4 vs #5.

I could post this bracket somewhere, but it wil not format correctly anywhere on cd that I am aware of. Perhaps I will share it via dropbox if anyone is interested.


As mentioned above I am sort of stalled until after this season actually wraps up, but I can do a couple of things.

The teams are pretty much set with the exception of (as mentioned above) whether or not Pitt gets replaced with this season's #5 team.

There are several schools with multiple entries. Here is a breakdown of that data:

Schools with only one entry (28)


Tulane (12-0)
Miami, (OH) (13-1)
Nevada (13-1)
Air Force (12-1)
Arizona (12-1)
Hawai'I (12-1)
Kansas (12-1)
Notre Dame (12-1)
Oklahoma State (12-1)
UCF (12-1)
Arizona State (11-1)
North Carolina (11-1)
Oregon State (11-1)
Washington (11-1)
NIU (12-2)
Arkansas (11-2)
Navy (11-2)
South Carolina (11-2)
Illinois (10-2)
Iowa (10-2)
Maryland (10-2)
Toledo (10-2)
Wyoming (10-2)
Georgia Tech (11-3)
Wake Forest (11-3)
Colorado (10-3)
Pittsburgh (8-4)
Purdue (8-4)


Schools with 2 entrants (14)

Utah
Marshall
Nebraska
Houston
Penn State
Clemson
Missouri
Cincinnati
Baylor
Colorado State
UCLA
Texas A&M
Washington State
Syracuse


Schools with 3-5 entrants (12)

Auburn = 3
Tennessee = 3
BYU = 3
Michigan = 3
Michigan State = 3
West Virginia = 3
Miami (FL) = 4
Wisconsin = 4
Stanford = 4
Georgia = 4
Kansas State = 4
Louisville = 5
Louisiana State = 5


Schools with more than 5 entrants (11)

Alabama = 6
Oregon = 6
TCU = 6
Texas = 6
Southern Cal = 7
Virginia Tech = 7
Florida = 8
Oklahoma = 9
Boise State = 10
Florida State = 11
Ohio State = 12

Last edited by chadgates; 01-07-2016 at 01:11 PM..
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Old 01-07-2016, 01:50 PM
 
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So some thoughts on the top 5:

Ohio State leading the field with 12 entries. That is pretty impressive and indicative of a damn strong and consistent program over the last 2 decades.


Florida State
also looking strong with 11. What is interesting about the Seminoles is that every one of their 11 entrants were conference championship seasons. Contrasted with Ohio State who were conference champs in only half of their entries.


Boise State with 10 is not really surprising I guess, however only one of those 10 gets a first round bye.


Oklahoma will likely get the #1 seed, with their 2000 campaign. It looks very unlikely that 2015 Clemson nor Alabama will crack the top 5, so those top seeded teams shouldn't be affected by this 2015 NCG. If Clemson wins, they will likely seed about 6-9 and if Bama wins they will seed anywhere from 25-50.

Florida with 8 entries is pretty solid, and they also have the distinction of holding the highest combined winning percentage (91-13/ .942) among schools with more than 3 entrants. Surprisingly, even though they have that high a winning % they have no unbeaten seasons.
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Old 01-07-2016, 02:19 PM
 
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How are teams seeded?

I took the points awarded in the final AP poll to any given team for any given season and then divided that total by the number of voters for that season. This produced a very unique set of "average vote" for each team. In fact not counting the unanimous #1s (of which there were 10, soon to be 11), there was only 3 instances of a tie for a particular seed.

2004 Texas was tied with 2008 Oklahoma. Oklahoma had 2 losses vs Texas with 1 so I gave the nod to Texas.

2012 Texas A&M tied with 2012 Georgia and 2011 Oklahoma State tied with 2009 Texas.

In both instances, as well as for the unanimous #1s I evaluated their "quality wins" (defined as beating a team that finished the season still ranked in the top 25). I produced a formula that weighted top5 teams slightly better than the 6-10 teams, which was slightly higher than the 11-15, etc etc.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:36 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadgates View Post
So some thoughts on the top 5:

Oklahoma will likely get the #1 seed, with their 2000 campaign. It looks very unlikely that 2015 Clemson nor Alabama will crack the top 5, so those top seeded teams shouldn't be affected by this 2015 NCG. If Clemson wins, they will likely seed about 6-9 and if Bama wins they will seed anywhere from 25-50.

Why would Alabama seed so poorly considering they'll be a unanimous #1 if they win. That seems off to me.

Other than that I think this should be pretty interesting. Looking forward to it.
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Old 01-08-2016, 06:57 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waltergulick View Post
Why would Alabama seed so poorly considering they'll be a unanimous #1 if they win. That seems off to me.

Other than that I think this should be pretty interesting. Looking forward to it.

You are right. I edited myself into an error. lol Sorry about that.

Yes it should have read:

If Clemson wins they'll seed around 6-9. If Bama wins they'll seed 9-11 or so. Either team that loses should seed between 25-50 (actually more like 22-44).
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Old 01-12-2016, 08:21 PM
 
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Looks like a good bracket.

Especially looking forward to a few match ups like Drew Brees and Purdue facing Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville.

Peyton's Tennessee squad going up against Andy Dalton's TCU team.

The one little Florida bracket where FSU plays the Gators and the winner goes to play Miami.

Other interesting games I will be watching for is Wisconsin plays Ohio State twice in the first round. Roethlisburger's (SP?) Miami of Ohio team, Mcnabb's Syracuse team, Ricky Williams Texas team, Peterson's Oklahoma team.

Lots of potential great games.

When are you starting this?
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Old 01-13-2016, 07:06 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waltergulick View Post
Looks like a good bracket.

Especially looking forward to a few match ups like Drew Brees and Purdue facing Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville.

Peyton's Tennessee squad going up against Andy Dalton's TCU team.

The one little Florida bracket where FSU plays the Gators and the winner goes to play Miami.

Other interesting games I will be watching for is Wisconsin plays Ohio State twice in the first round. Roethlisburger's (SP?) Miami of Ohio team, Mcnabb's Syracuse team, Ricky Williams Texas team, Peterson's Oklahoma team.

Lots of potential great games.

When are you starting this?

Thanks.

You missed the Brady Michigan team facing off against Vick's VA Tech's team.

There are definitely a lot of great talent on some of these teams.

LaDainian Tomlinson's TCU team is also in there. As is Darren Sproles K State team and there was another big time NFL receiver, but I can't recall at the moment.


The tourney will begin next week.
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Old 01-17-2016, 11:11 AM
 
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I'd like to see the 2008 Texas Tech team play the 2004 Cal team in the Rose Bowl. Both didn't qualify for your tournament by the slimmest of margins.
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Old 01-18-2016, 07:39 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoe01 View Post
I'd like to see the 2008 Texas Tech team play the 2004 Cal team in the Rose Bowl. Both didn't qualify for your tournament by the slimmest of margins.
When I get the chance I will sim that match-up and post the results here for you.
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Old 01-18-2016, 07:41 AM
 
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Results from round 1 day 1 are now posted.
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