Colorado economy? (Denver, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins: house, buying, bankrupt)

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Once again, you don't look beyond the headline. 22% of the mortgages in the US are underwater because several of the MOST populous states in the Union are in the worst shape--Florida and California being two. If you compare Colorado's percentages with states with similar populations to Colorado, well, Colorado looks pretty damned bad--as it should--the bubble got out of control here. I'd bet if some statistic said that 20% of Coloradans were meth-heads, you'd say that's fine if 22% of everybody in the US was a meth-head. After all, we're just like the rest of the country, right? It's always nice to find people that put the "K" back in "kwality."

Actually I just got the Kiplinger Letter and it had a whole page on housing. Granted its not Colorado specific but it does relate to Colorado. Here is what it said:

- Housing prices will stop shrinking by spring 2012 after a additional 2% decline.
- By the end of 2012 they will have made up that 2% lost.
- 2013 will see a modest 3%-4% gain.
- Sales of new and existing homes will creep up to 5.5 million in 2012 (not sure what it will be in Colorado in 2012 but my guess is it will be up as well).
- Construction of new homes will increase 15% next year, nationally as well as in Colorado.

The reason is price to income ratio, houses are affordable again.

I suspect the worse it behind us here in Colorado and the next few years we will bounce back. According to the Kiplinger by 2014 national housing starts will be at 1.5 million and sales of new and existing homes will be about 6 million.

[CosmicWizard]

jazzlover wrote:

It's always nice to find people that put the "K" back in "kwality."

Very "knifty"!

[proveick]

Dang, Kiplinger must have a crystal ball. What happens when the Euro collapses? RP

[CosmicWizard]

josseppie wrote:

I suspect the worse it behind us here in Colorado and the next few years we will bounce back.

There is good reason to be suspicious about Colorado bouncing back in the next few years. Personally, I've seen nothing at all indicating a comeback any time soon. But to be fair to you....anything can happen. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Shuffler]

Originally Posted by proveick

Dang, Kiplinger must have a crystal ball. What happens when the Euro collapses? RP

Not to worry, credit markets are being shored up by the central banks and the bulls run wild as I type this....problems solved!

Extend and Pretend, baby!

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

josseppie wrote:

I suspect the worse it behind us here in Colorado and the next few years we will bounce back.

There is good reason to be suspicious about Colorado bouncing back in the next few years. Personally, I've seen nothing at all indicating a comeback any time soon. But to be fair to you....anything can happen. We'll just have to wait and see.

Well I have been wrong before so I could be wrong this time. As you say we will find out soon enough.

[ragerunner1]

Some more economic news for Colorado. Not only is a recovery in housing a long ways off, its still falling.

FHFA: Colorado house prices fall 1.5 percent in Colorado during third quarter

"Colorado's House Price (Expanded-Data) Index (HPI), measured by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA), fell 1.5 percent from the third quarter of 2010 to the same period this year. According to the third quarter 2011 HPI, released Tuesday by FHFA, the home price index for Colorado, in year-over-year comparisons, has fallen for the fifth quarter in a row while the national index has fallen for the 18th quarter in a row.

The Colorado HPI has now down 13.6 percent from the peak in the state's HPI which was reached during the third quarter of 2006. The national index is down 23 percent from its peak, which it also reached during the third quarter of 2006".
Colorado Division of Housing: FHFA: Colorado house prices fall 1.5 percent in Colorado during third quarter

Colorado in top 10 of states with negative equity

"SANTA ANA, Calif. - Colorado is ranked No. 10 on California-based CoreLogic's list of the states with the highest negative home equity in the third quarter of 2011.

The report cited Greeley as having one of the highest rates of negative equity in the state, with 38.1 percent - or 20,573 - of all residential properties with a mortgage in negative equity during the quarter."
Colorado in top 10 of states with negative equity | Northern Colorado Business Report

Unless things turn around very quickly, most of the western world is in for another unpleasant recession in 2012, including the US. We are now entering that phase were economic leaders are just trying to make the next crash as soft as possible, instead of avoiding the crash. I hope I am wrong, but the data is starting to look pretty bad.

Factories stall worldwide, U.S. jobless claims rise

"(Reuters) - Manufacturing activity is contracting across Europe and most of Asia, data showed on Thursday, and a Chinese official declared that the world economy faces a worse situation than in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Factory activity shrank even further in the euro zone, reinforcing the view that the debt-strapped region is in recession, while British manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace in two years, raising the risk that the UK economy may suffer the same fate."

"China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed factory activity shrank in November for the first time in nearly three years, while a similar PMI showed Indian factory growth slowed close to stall speed."

"The big picture here is this is an unwinding of a 20-year debt bubble," said Peter Dixon, global financial economist at Commerzbank. "It's going to be painful, and it's going to be nasty. What policymakers are aiming for is a smoothing of the path."
Factories stall worldwide, U.S. jobless claims rise | Reuters

[proveick]

We might get a boost in the ski and snowboard industry this winter. There is virtually no snow in the Alps. Cancelled a world cup event.
World Cup skiing event at Val d'Isere cancelled due to lack of snow... | Mail Online
RP

[Josseppie]

This came across my google alerts and I found it very interesting so I decided to post it here.

Two things that caught my eye was how much Pueblo and the Colorado Springs utilities spend and how little Fort Collins spends.

Who spent what

Expenditures on federal lobbying


CITY OF AURORA

2011 (through Dec. 11): $90,000
2010: $160,000
2009: $150,000


CITY OF DENVER

2011 (through Dec. 11): $160,000
2010: $200,000
2009: $180,000


COLORADO SPRINGS UTILITIES

2011 (through Dec. 11): $186,000
2010: $254,000
2009: $247,000


CITY OF FORT COLLINS

2011 (through Dec. 11): $0
2010: $10,000
2009: $5,000


CITY OF PUEBLO

2011 (through Dec. 11): $60,000
2010: $42,000
2009: $45,000


JEFFERSON COUNTY

2011 (through Dec. 11): $90,000
2010: $120,000
2009: $110,000


The link: Embattled Colorado cities say lobbying still worth every dime - The Denver Post

[Idunn]

Although I cannot be accused of being a big booster of Pueblo, still ran across something worth mentioning.

According to NPR today, Pueblo shares a distinction with Fort Collins as being one of the two first towns in Colorado to reach their former employment levels (as presumably measured prior to these economic, uh, difficulties).