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Old 04-25-2014, 11:53 AM
 
8,317 posts, read 26,854,645 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
Article in Bloomberg raises the concern that output of frac'd wells plays out quicker than older conventional wells have historically dwindled down. This excerpt explains the issue that concerns them:

"...David Hughes -- a 32-year veteran with the Geological Survey of Canada and now a research fellow with the Post Carbon Institute, ... notes the average decline of the world's conventional oil fields is about 5% per year. By comparison, the average decline of oil wells in ND's booming Bakken shale oil field is 44% per year. Individual wells can see production declines of 70% or more in the first year...."
This is a well-known fact in the energy industry--though it is not one that the "we have plenty of oil" crowd wants to talk about. Because of the high initial investment in drilling frac'ed wells, their relatively quick depletion curve means that the oil produced from them is way more costly per barrel to produce. That is one reason why oil is not going down in price, even with more production on line.

The oil companies are also voting with their feet and shipping most of that crude oil by rail. Reason? Not because of delays building pipeline capacity (the dustup over the Keystone pipeline makes nice reading, but it's not the reason more Bakken oil isn't going by pipeline), but because the pipeline companies typically require a field to have a 30-40 year near-full-production lifespan in order to make building pipeline capacity for it economically feasible. They know, just like the oil companies do (but don't tell), that Bakken won't last much more than half that long.

As far as gasoline and medium distillate (jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.) production, there is only one long-term solution other than efficiency and conservation (which should be this country's first energy priority, not its last) and that is producing those products from coal. We have at least some decent reserves of coal left in this country, but the rub is that fuel produced from coal will be quite expensive, probably penciling out to be in the $7-$9 per gallon at the pump price in today's dollars.
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Old 04-30-2014, 10:52 AM
 
22,584 posts, read 41,463,975 times
Reputation: 22569
Default Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt

Shale drillers are gorging on junk bonds so they can stay on the drilling treadmill. Borrow, drill, repeat....

Excerpts: "Rice Energy Inc., a natural gas producer with risky credit, raised $900 million in three days this month, $150 million more than it originally sought... and said it will spend $4.09 for every $1 it earns in 2014.....“There’s a lot of Kool-Aid that’s being drunk now by investors,” Tim Gramatovich, who helps manage more than $800 million as chief investment officer of Santa Barbara, California-based Peritus Asset Management LLC. “People lose their discipline. They stop doing the math. They stop doing the accounting. They’re just dreaming the dream, and that’s what’s happening with the shale boom.” .... Rice Energy’s bond offering this month was rated CCC+ by Standard & Poor’s, seven steps below investment grade, ....


Sounds like 2007, when the world was awash in money looking for a place to park it and get a return. If our government was paying attention, they'd raise taxes to sop up some of trillions of dollars floating around out there so we could get to a balanced budget and catch up on infrastructure spending.
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Old 05-03-2014, 10:34 AM
 
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Wink Inside Energy

'Inside Energy is distinctive storytelling that moves beyond polarized arguments and emotional debates to explore the tradeoffs, opportunities and very human consequences of energy policy, production, use and innovation. IE explores both the national and local significance of these energy issues.' [1]


Seven public radio and television stations, including Rocky Mountain PBS, will be collaborating on reports about energy issues in America and the Rocky Mountain West. This initiative is entitled Inside Energy.

Further details can be had here:
Inside Energy | Rocky Mountain PBS


1) 'Inside Energy, Rocky Mountain PBS
Inside Energy | Rocky Mountain PBS
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Old 05-29-2014, 01:02 PM
 
22,584 posts, read 41,463,975 times
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Default California Fracking Gusher Runs Dry

California's Fracking Gusher Runs Dry, per an article in Bloomberg today.

Gist: Originally estimated at 14B barrels of recoverable reserves from the Monterey Formation, a recent estimate restates that number downward to only 600M barrels, a 96% reduction. The article also mentions wildly varying estimates of natural gas in the eastern field known as the Marcellus Shale.

Who knows what the truth is.

IMO it's past the time to get on with major efforts in renewable energy sources; no one has downgraded the energy levels in the sun.

We need to save our oil for lubrication and other critical uses for the long term of the next several hundred years, same for our coal reserves, and stop burning fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow, else the day will arrive when there is no tomorrow for fossil fuels.
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Old 05-29-2014, 09:33 PM
 
1,492 posts, read 1,068,478 times
Reputation: 1791
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
California's Fracking Gusher Runs Dry, per an article in Bloomberg today.

Gist: Originally estimated at 14B barrels of recoverable reserves from the Monterey Formation, a recent estimate restates that number downward to only 600M barrels, a 96% reduction. The article also mentions wildly varying estimates of natural gas in the eastern field known as the Marcellus Shale.

Who knows what the truth is.

IMO it's past the time to get on with major efforts in renewable energy sources; no one has downgraded the energy levels in the sun.

We need to save our oil for lubrication and other critical uses for the long term of the next several hundred years, same for our coal reserves, and stop burning fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow, else the day will arrive when there is no tomorrow for fossil fuels.
No but you can cover the state of Kansas with Solar panels it still wont put a dent in our energy needs. Solar is still way too expensive and inefficient to make any real impact. Wind, even worse than solar. The only reason why you see so many wind turbines is the rush to get a tax break. Wind turbines have an even shorter life span than solar panels. IMO, to be as clean and efficient as possible is to build more Nuke plants.

Besides we could go 100% green and it still wont matter with the rest of the world. The developing world will still burn coal, destroy forest for farmland that will offset any gains. 1 volcano erupts, that's more co2 emissions offsetting any gains. tie that in with an ever increasing 3rd world population, good luck!

There are some estimates that UT has more oil under it than all oil that's been recovered in the history of oil, so theres that to look forward to.
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Old 05-30-2014, 11:29 AM
 
2,253 posts, read 6,306,570 times
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Wink Inexorably Hubbert

'The amount of oil presumed to be lurking in the area -- some 400 billion barrels -- is still there. It’s just going to be harder and perhaps more expensive to get it out than originally thought.

“Experience has shown that the technology needed to develop the Monterey shales has proven more difficult than in the Bakken or Eagle Ford...'
[1]




Intriguing article.

One might question the motives of Intek, Inc. in its original estimate of the Monterrey Shale formation for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). All the more when a perhaps more neutral, or equally biased Post Carbon Institute considered the same data with the conclusion that EIA/Intek estimates were "highly overstated." With a supposed 14 billion barrels of oil (currently downgraded to an estimate of 600 million), 2.8 million new jobs (somehow?), and $24.6 billion in new California state and local revenue, the possibilities were enticing. Or that many people and jurisdictions have all the more reason to turn a blind eye to possible long term and quite detrimental environmental consequences of fracking when it promises not only munificent short-term revenue but as well the holy grail of US energy independence. All this less enticing and a more sobering prospect if assessed realistically in the balance of the positives and negatives that will accrue, and no guaranteed panacea.

If their figures perhaps suspect, the EIA may have inadvertently disclosed our real position. The first graph in this article, of projected production of fossil fuels, reveals as much. According to it the production of natural gas will only increase with time through 2040. However production of crude oil peaks in about 2016 and then gradually tapers off through 2040. Again, one might question the figures of the EIA, but in this instance they fairly well match other estimates of when Peak Oil would occur, with thereafter an inevitable final decline in such output. While this particular graph may only indicate US production (no idea), globally we are at, just beyond, or very near Peak Oil. According to Hubbert, such graphs are invariably as somewhat irregular bell curves; the rise up should be exponential, then tapering to plateau and slowly descending, then more rapidly in exponential descent.

That the technology of hydraulic fracturing is today ongoing, or even considered, is proof of as much. Depending, fracking can recover either gas and/or oil. Either are more easily and inexpensively recovered by conventional means. In some areas, as once Pennsylvania, the oil literally seeped out of the ground naturally. Oil from the Monterrey Shale formation will cost appreciably more to extract. That this or other fracking opportunities are seriously considered because the easily recoverable reserves on this planet have largely long since been utilized, and most in significant decline. Of the few exceptions would be those in Iraq, and we know how that went in securing them for western oil companies. Fracking is basically the last game in town for a declining—if vital—industry.

Oil has far more and better uses than in mere transportation. For our lack of ingenuity, it is basically wasted there (not to mention effect on the environment). For whatever naysayers may opinion, fossil fuels—no matter how extracted—are a finite resource that will, by current usage, be exhausted relatively soon. If no viable alternative energy sources are on hand by then—well then, there will be none.



1) California's Fracking Gusher Runs Dry,' Bloomberg
California's Fracking Gusher Runs Dry - Bloomberg View
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Old 05-30-2014, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Southwest
1,908 posts, read 1,300,228 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Idunn View Post
Fracking is the process of drilling a well and then pumping in toxic chemicals and water at high pressure to fracture the underlying rock.

Why do they do this instead of just drilling down the regular way?
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Old 05-30-2014, 11:58 AM
 
Location: Southwest
1,908 posts, read 1,300,228 times
Reputation: 1323
Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy87 View Post
Besides we could go 100% green and it still wont matter with the rest of the world. The developing world will still burn coal, destroy forest for farmland that will offset any gains. 1 volcano erupts, that's more co2 emissions offsetting any gains. tie that in with an ever increasing 3rd world population, good luck!

There are some estimates that UT has more oil under it than all oil that's been recovered in the history of oil, so theres that to look forward to.

Maybe the goobermint believes it can always manipulate the developing world.

Increasing population can cause serious problems in the future.

Regarding UT, I read a long-ish article a good time ago claiming there monstrous amounts of oil below. It's just a matter of drilling deep enough to get to it. This is all over, not just UT.

How much deeper than typical depths is the oil in UT?
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Old 05-30-2014, 02:55 PM
 
2,253 posts, read 6,306,570 times
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Wink Brief overview

'Horizontal drilling (along with traditional vertical drilling) allows for the injection of highly pressurized fracking fluids into the shale area. This creates new channels within the rock from which natural gas is extracted at higher than traditional rates.' [1]




Quote:
Originally Posted by curiousgeorge5 View Post
Why do they do this instead of just drilling down the regular way?
Briefly, hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is a technique of oil and gas extraction first developed in the 1940s—but until recently unnecessary and uneconomical—that can access fossil fuel deposits otherwise unreachable by conventional means.

In a typical fracked well some 4 million gallons of water laced with a host of often toxic chemicals are pumped at very high pressure as far as 10,000 feet into the Earth.[2] The effect is to mechanically fracture the underlying rock, releasing oil and/or gas otherwise trapped there.

There are any number of sources on this topic one might refer to. Reference #2 provides a decent overview of some of the issues, such as the basic technology, what is in fracking fluid, effect on water resources, earthquakes, etc.



1) 'What is Fracking,' (author unknown)
What Is Fracking

2) 'Fracking FAQ: The science and technology behind the natural gas boom,' Grist
Fracking FAQ: The science and technology behind the natural gas boom | Grist
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Old 05-30-2014, 06:51 PM
 
Location: Western, Colorado
1,599 posts, read 2,854,270 times
Reputation: 943
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
California's Fracking Gusher Runs Dry, per an article in Bloomberg today.

Gist: Originally estimated at 14B barrels of recoverable reserves from the Monterey Formation, a recent estimate restates that number downward to only 600M barrels, a 96% reduction. The article also mentions wildly varying estimates of natural gas in the eastern field known as the Marcellus Shale.

Who knows what the truth is.

IMO it's past the time to get on with major efforts in renewable energy sources; no one has downgraded the energy levels in the sun.

We need to save our oil for lubrication and other critical uses for the long term of the next several hundred years, same for our coal reserves, and stop burning fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow, else the day will arrive when there is no tomorrow for fossil fuels.
Time to build a few nuclear plants..
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