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Old 03-17-2012, 10:58 AM
 
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If the current weather patterns continue, with storm after storm fizzling out--particularly in the lower elevations--we are headed for what may be one of the worst fire seasons since 2001-2002--if not worse. In many areas of western and southern Colorado, this winter is stacking up to be the driest since 2002, which was only eclipsed by the winter of 1976-77 as being just about the driest in a century-plus. Abnormally warm winter temperatures--with average temperature being up to 10 degrees warmer this winter in some locales (which is dramatic in climatological terms)--are severely aggrevating the drought situation.

Whether human-caused (global warming) or natural variation, Colorado appears locked into a long-term weather pattern where dry winters are becoming the norm and normal years the exception, compared to the former regime where normal years were, well, the norm, and dry years the exception. If our current pattern is the "new normal" for this state and region, then we are in big trouble.

 
Old 03-17-2012, 06:43 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
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Apparently, CoS is 6" inches below normal in snow fall. I hope we can make it up.
 
Old 03-17-2012, 06:46 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
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Chenopods = Amaranthceae
Amaranthaceae - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Old 03-17-2012, 10:57 PM
 
9,817 posts, read 19,080,237 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
If the current weather patterns continue, with storm after storm fizzling out--particularly in the lower elevations--we are headed for what may be one of the worst fire seasons since 2001-2002--if not worse. In many areas of western and southern Colorado, this winter is stacking up to be the driest since 2002, which was only eclipsed by the winter of 1976-77 as being just about the driest in a century-plus. Abnormally warm winter temperatures--with average temperature being up to 10 degrees warmer this winter in some locales (which is dramatic in climatological terms)--are severely aggrevating the drought situation.

Whether human-caused (global warming) or natural variation, Colorado appears locked into a long-term weather pattern where dry winters are becoming the norm and normal years the exception, compared to the former regime where normal years were, well, the norm, and dry years the exception. If our current pattern is the "new normal" for this state and region, then we are in big trouble.
Yes I remember that 01-02 winter well. 03-04 was also pretty poor.

But in the years since Colorado has had plenty of above average years, so it's only predictable that a dry, warm year was going to happen. That is just part of living in the west and something everyone will always have to deal with and plan for. It's not like this is a new thing. The 1930's were worst than anything seen since.
 
Old 03-18-2012, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,756 posts, read 16,497,453 times
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wanneroo wrote
But in the years since Colorado has had plenty of above average years, so it's only predictable that a dry, warm year was going to happen. That is just part of living in the west and something everyone will always have to deal with and plan for. It's not like this is a new thing. The 1930's were worst than anything seen since.
Thanks for bringing COMMON SENSE into this discussion. At times, we are so strongly influenced by our fears that we paint worse case scenarios, and secretly take pleasure in showing the world how brilliant we think we are, without the faintest notion that everyone else sees right to the heart of our fear based projections.
 
Old 03-18-2012, 01:13 PM
 
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Wink A less than happy forecast

The local news recently reported that the statewide precipitation average in Colorado thus far is 74% of normal, and that if this trend continues into May, then 59%.

There have already been several minor fires along the front range, and it is still technically winter. Hopefully we will receive some major storms soon, although in this month of March, historically one of the wettest, not much so far of any consequence. Even in the high country, such as in Summit County, the snow is quickly melting. Not to be overly pessimistic, but it looks to be a long dry wait for the monsoons beginning in July, and if that fizzles as well, God help Colorado.

Unfortunately the soundest long-term forecasts are for warmer and drier conditions throughout the American southwest, with this influencing as well almost all of Colorado. That is the reality, and one expected at minimum to last for decades, only becoming more so as time passes. There will of course be variations from year to year, but in trend only drier, and all more extreme.

Not a pretty picture, but something all inhabitants of Colorado, vegetation, human, wildlife—all of us—will have to adjust to, whether we like it or not.
 
Old 03-18-2012, 04:55 PM
Status: "Not politically correct" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Western Colorado
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Well at 2pm the rain blew in, rained for about a minute then nothing. VERY high winds, and of course since we're under a red flag fire warning some moron is burning his field. A friend in Cedaredge told me it's snowing hard there. See what tonight and Monday brings.
 
Old 03-18-2012, 05:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Idunn View Post
Unfortunately the soundest long-term forecasts are for warmer and drier conditions throughout the American southwest, with this influencing as well almost all of Colorado. That is the reality, and one expected at minimum to last for decades, only becoming more so as time passes. There will of course be variations from year to year, but in trend only drier, and all more extreme.

Not a pretty picture, but something all inhabitants of Colorado, vegetation, human, wildlife—all of us—will have to adjust to, whether we like it or not.
Forecasts are NOT reality because it's the future and the future hasn't happened yet.

What you can look at is historical data which shows Colorado goes through 40 year wet/dry cycles and Colorado has been in a dry cycle since around 1978, so at some point historical data points to heading towards a wet cycle.

Colorado has had a number of years of above average precipitation so this is not some surprise Colorado will have a quiet year for water.
 
Old 03-18-2012, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,756 posts, read 16,497,453 times
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wanneroo wrote:
Forecasts are NOT reality because it's the future and the future hasn't happened yet.
Right on the money. People just don't get that point! A forecast of any kind is an educated guess at best and more often....not even that. More commonly, the driving force behind most forecasts is a thinly disguised attempt to inflate the ego and show the world how knowledgeable one is. A common practice on this forum is to keep making the same dire forecast over and over again, no matter how many times it's been off the mark in the past, probably thinking....THIS time I'll get it right.
 
Old 03-18-2012, 06:00 PM
 
12,866 posts, read 24,584,458 times
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Thanks for the post about chenopods!
I still can't figure out exactly what kills me in July-August in Colorado, and far worse in southern Utah, but I know where it is and that I've never had allergies anywhere else, anytime!
(A poster on this group might remember by visit last summer far better than I remember it, woozy and nauseous on two different medications, can't even remember what they were, unable to open my eyes to see the landscape for the burning and 100+ heat, and blasting sinus headache with it. Someday I hope to go back to the area and see what I missed!
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