Is the real estate market showing any sign of picking up? (Denver: mortgage, environment)

[MorningGlory]

Does it look like it might pick up in 08?
What does a person have to do to sell?

Realtors help me out here!

Thanks in advance!

[2bindenver]

There are two distinct selling seasons - Spring (Feb or March to June) and fall (mid September to Mid November) houses sell every day of every month in Denver (except x-mas, I have sold houses on NYE and NYD)

What do you have to do to sell:
1. Make sure your property is the best condition for the price.
2. Make sure you are on MLS with a average or better coop for BA's & TB's
3. Make sure you are a showcase listing on Realtor.com
4. Make sure you are on craigslist, brokerage, yahoo websites
5. Make sure you have as many photos on MLS & r.com as you can
6. Make sure you have a virtual tour
7. Keep an eye on the competition (get comp listing in your email box) A kind of know your enemy.
8. Know your absorption rate, DOM, list to sold price ratio - learn about your sub market.
9. Have your Realtor call all the U/C's and ask "What do you think made this house sell."
10. Offer an incentive to the buyer - HOA paid for/Trash/gym membership/season pass...

[Tom Emmerling]

The market here in Colorado has not seen quite as big of a hit as other states have. Houses are still moving, just not very fast. In order to sell your house you have to have it
1.priced right
2.and in GREAT condition
Do you have a house on the market right now? How long has it been on the market? Where is it at? How much are you asking for it?
You may want to consider having a professional stager come in and help you get it show room ready. You can expect to have to put a little money into it before it sells.
I read an article the other day that predicted the market would not pick up until 09. It is going to take a little bit to straighten out this mess.

[jazzlover]

My personal belief is that we are at the very beginning of a long-term real estate decline across the country. Because much of Colorado's real estate market--while seemingly a bargain to people from higher income areas--is overpriced compared to local incomes, I think the "bust" in the Colorado market may be profound. Colorado has the additional big problem that much of its current economy is based on construction and real estate development. When the real estate market tanks, it will also take a major chunk of the Colorado economy with it. Thus, people will get hit on both sides: a collapsing market in which to try to sell their home, and the real possibility that they may become unemployed as well.

I am going to make a statement here than many will probably think to be quite callous: the sooner this happens, the better it will be for the long-term future of Colorado and the country. The sad truth is that we Americans have wildly overinvested in assets which are essentially non-productive (residential real estate) and have embraced an energy-intensive, debt-fueled, consumption-based lifestyle that is wholly unsustainable in the future. The sooner we figure that out and start down a different path, the better. The longer the current economic silliness continues in both Colorado and the nation, the more dire and dangerouse the consequences will be. Our very survival as a nation may be soon at stake.

By the way, I just liquidated my last real estate holding, and am most glad to be out the real estate market.

[HappyMontrose]

Houses are SELLING in many areas of Colorado.... Here in Montrose part of the reason is people still want to live here ... plus this town is growing at a nice pace ...

Another good reason is many of the Sellers are adjusting and bringing down their prices which helps .

HM

[Mike from back east]

I recently sat in a briefing given at Univ of Denver by a prominent Colorado person. The CHIEF ECONOMIST of U.S. Bank.

Her track record is excellent, she beats most of the other pro's in the business.

Her briefing states that the worst of the problems in the housing and building areas are now behind us. She predicts very low growth of 0.5% for 2008, and those numbers mean a recession of 2-3 quarters, which we *may* already be in. We never know we're in a recession until after it starts and is confirmed by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). She says that 2009 will be a much better year than 2008. National Bureau of Economic Research

Her economist forecast, including one for Colorado, is on-line at:http://www.coloradoeconomy.com/downl...st08_FINAL.pdf

Interest rates fell 0.5% the other week. As of this morning, Wall Street is betting on another reduction. Lower interest rates will help move some of the housing stock by making prices/mortgages more affordable for buyers.

Misc notes I took during the briefing to help people decipher economist-speak:

JOB STATS
Job and unemployment statistics are lagging indicators. Job stats are often a bit misleading, too. For example, if a well-paid software specialist is let go and then has to work at waiting tables or doing part time work to make ends meet, the job stats don’t change, the stats still show him/her as being employed, though the salary takes a big hit, with obvious impact to consumer spending. Currently, there are about 4.5 million people working part time because they cannot find full time work. This stat is up 10% in the last year. Further, if you do not “look” for work for more than 4 weeks, you simply fall out of the job stats altogether. Job stats are again skewed in that tiny companies with only 1-4 employees are not in the stats at all. The undocumented workers are not being counted, either as employed or unemployed persons.

CONSUMER SPENDING:
Consumers aren’t a good predictor of recession, either the start or end of one. Current estimates say the U.S. economy is 80% driven by consumer spending and this is closely watched. Another 17% of the economy is business spending. Consumer spending is growing at 2.5% per year, but a lot of that spending was done with credit cards and re-financing of homes to draw out appreciation. Credit card debt is now $1T, home values are not rising as they were, and in some areas declining, which prevents drawing out value for spending. Many jobs in home building have gone away in the current environment, with some undocumented workers going back home (to Mexico). If consumer spending declines it will negatively impact the economies of China, Japan, Germany, too, and thus lower our exports to them as they no longer buy as much.

MORE ON RECESSION TALK:
See Posting 16 on page 2 of:
The Chance of a recession by the end of 2008

s/Mike from back east

[MorningGlory]

Originally Posted by Tom Emmerling

The market here in Colorado has not seen quite as big of a hit as other states have. Houses are still moving, just not very fast. In order to sell your house you have to have it
1.priced right
2.and in GREAT condition
Do you have a house on the market right now? How long has it been on the market? Where is it at? How much are you asking for it?
You may want to consider having a professional stager come in and help you get it show room ready. You can expect to have to put a little money into it before it sells.
I read an article the other day that predicted the market would not pick up until 09. It is going to take a little bit to straighten out this mess.

We had our house on the market for most of the summer. Our realtor is a licensed stager, she was awesome. The problem was we had maybe one showing a week! Trying to keep the house perfect with kids and pets was just doing us in, so we decided to pull it and wait till things improved.

We have already dumped a fortune into the house to get it in good condition and as a result are low on cash. The carpet could still use replacing, but we think next time we list (Feb?) we will try a carpet allowance. Does that generally work, or do buyers want it replaced first?

[MorningGlory]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I recently sat in a briefing given at Univ of Denver by a prominent Colorado person. The CHIEF ECONOMIST of U.S. Bank.

Her track record is excellent, she beats most of the other pro's in the business.

Her briefing states that the worst of the problems in the housing and building areas are now behind us. She predicts very low growth of 0.5% for 2008, and those numbers mean a recession of 2-3 quarters, which we *may* already be in. We never know we're in a recession until after it starts and is confirmed by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). She says that 2009 will be a much better year than 2008.

Her economist forecast, including one for Colorado, is on-line at:http://www.coloradoeconomy.com/downl...st08_FINAL.pdf

Interest rates fell 0.5% the other week. As of this morning, Wall Street is betting on another reduction. Lower interest rates will help move some of the housing stock by making prices/mortgages more affordable for buyers.

s/Mike from back east

Well that is some good news, thanks Mike.

[MorningGlory]

Originally Posted by 2bindenver

There are two distinct selling seasons - Spring (Feb or March to June) and fall (mid September to Mid November) houses sell every day of every month in Denver (except x-mas, I have sold houses on NYE and NYD)

What do you have to do to sell:
1. Make sure your property is the best condition for the price.
2. Make sure you are on MLS with a average or better coop for BA's & TB's
3. Make sure you are a showcase listing on Realtor.com
4. Make sure you are on craigslist, brokerage, yahoo websites
5. Make sure you have as many photos on MLS & r.com as you can
6. Make sure you have a virtual tour
7. Keep an eye on the competition (get comp listing in your email box) A kind of know your enemy.
8. Know your absorption rate, DOM, list to sold price ratio - learn about your sub market.
9. Have your Realtor call all the U/C's and ask "What do you think made this house sell."
10. Offer an incentive to the buyer - HOA paid for/Trash/gym membership/season pass...

What are BAs and TBs?

[dj32]

morningglory,

best of luck. I know things are stressful. Where is your home located?

I think it is all market specific here in Denver. I watch the Wash Park market heavily and builders are still scraping and building like crazy, and the price keeps increasing. I've posted this on the forum before. Based on the listing prices, our home value would have been a fantastic return on investmetn in just a couple of years. However, I'm still trying to figure out how things are sellling in this neighborhood and what the true comps are. I assume things have to be doing well given what prices they are trying to get. I've asked this question on this forum before to the realtors, I'm not sure anyone here works in this market. Bottom line- Attractive neighborhoods in Denver proper seem to be doing ok- realtors, am I wrong in that assessment???