U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Colorado
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
 
Old 08-10-2012, 12:27 PM
 
1,260 posts, read 1,047,324 times
Reputation: 1057

Advertisements

With both the President and his Republican challenger campaigning heavily in Colorado (both have visited the state within the past few weeks), who do you think is going to win? Which areas will be the deciding areas?

At this point, Colorado seems fairly evenly divided to me-truly a "purple" state, with a large and griwng number of Independents. They will factor heavily in this election.

 
Old 08-10-2012, 12:48 PM
 
704 posts, read 1,441,226 times
Reputation: 629
At this point, even if the president ends up winning nationally, I think Romney will probably win Colorado. Though it is fairly evenly divided, it nevertheless does lean towards the right a bit. Voter identification and registration leans Republican. Gallup recently had the president's approval rating at 43% in Colorado, and a NYT/CBSNews poll had Romney leading Colorado by five. Gallup also showed that Colorado was the 18th most Republican state.

Heavily Democratic States Are Concentrated in the East


There are a growing number of independents, but the real story since 2008 is the growing number of Republicans and the shrinking number of Democrats. After moving from red to purple between 2004 and 2010, it looks like Colorado is getting a bit more red again.

Generally, in statewide politics, the race comes down to Denver's right-leaning, though fairly independent, suburbs, and Larimer County. Colorado's fastest growing counties are also the most conservative--El Paso, Mesa, Douglas, Weld. The older, and slower-growing counties of Denver, Pueblo, and Boulder are the treasure troves for Democratic votes. Romney is a candidate tailor-made for suburban Denver, so I imagine he'll do better there than Republicans have for a while, and thus give him a four or five point win in Colorado.
 
Old 08-10-2012, 12:52 PM
 
1,260 posts, read 1,047,324 times
Reputation: 1057
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneNative View Post
At this point, even if the president ends up winning nationally, I think Romney will probably win Colorado. Though it is fairly evenly divided, it nevertheless does lean towards the right a bit. Voter identification and registration leans Republican. Gallup recently had the president's approval rating at 43% in Colorado, and a NYT/CBSNews poll had Romney leading Colorado by five. Gallup also showed that Colorado was the 18th most Republican state.

Heavily Democratic States Are Concentrated in the East


There are a growing number of independents, but the real story since 2008 is the growing number of Republicans and the shrinking number of Democrats. After moving from red to purple between 2004 and 2010, it looks like Colorado is getting a bit more red again.

Generally, in statewide politics, the race comes down to Denver's right-leaning, though fairly independent, suburbs, and Larimer County. Colorado's fastest growing counties are also the most conservative--El Paso, Mesa, Douglas, Weld. The older, and slower-growing counties of Denver, Pueblo, and Boulder are the treasure troves for Democratic votes. Romney is a candidate tailor-made for suburban Denver, so I imagine he'll do better there than Republicans have for a while, and thus give him a four or five point win in Colorado.
Interesting. Are Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties still fairly Republican, or are they more "swing" this time? IIRC, they both went for Obama in 2008.
 
Old 08-10-2012, 12:56 PM
 
704 posts, read 1,441,226 times
Reputation: 629
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllenSJC View Post
Interesting. Are Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties still fairly Republican, or are they more "swing" this time? IIRC, they both went for Obama in 2008.
They used to be fairly Republican, but demographics have shifted a bit and they are very swing-y these days. The president won them pretty easily in 2008, and I'd guess that Romney will probably pick them up narrowly in November. Mr. Obama will probably win Adams County by a small margin, and lose big in conservative Douglas County. Jefferson County is probably a bit more conservative than Arapahoe County, so I could see the president winning Arapahoe County by a couple of points and Romney winning Jefferson County (where I live) by the same margin that he wins statewide (four or five points).
 
Old 08-10-2012, 01:05 PM
 
1,260 posts, read 1,047,324 times
Reputation: 1057
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneNative View Post
They used to be fairly Republican, but demographics have shifted a bit and they are very swing-y these days. The president won them pretty easily in 2008, and I'd guess that Romney will probably pick them up narrowly in November. Mr. Obama will probably win Adams County by a small margin, and lose big in conservative Douglas County. Jefferson County is probably a bit more conservative than Arapahoe County, so I could see the president winning Arapahoe County by a couple of points and Romney winning Jefferson County (where I live) by the same margin that he wins statewide (four or five points).
Ah, ok.

Is there much of a difference between Douglas County and the parts of Jefferson and Arapahoe that border it? Or El Paso County? This whole region seems to be the demographic heartland of the Republican Party in Colorado, these days.
 
Old 08-10-2012, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,756 posts, read 16,463,186 times
Reputation: 9292
AllenSJC wrote: who do you think is going to win?

Wether Obamey wins or Robama wins makes little differnece. The status quo will prevail....the steady chipping away of personal freedoms, the continuing chipping away of the dollars buying power, the continuing erosion of the middle class, the continuing shift of control to the corporations, the continuing increase of the deficit, a continuing waste of money on wars, the continuing gridlock of congress, etc. The only thing that might change is perhaps a new face in the white house, but that's just smoke and mirrors, a convenient distraction to keep us arguing over trivial matters while the sinister agenda of the banksters continues as usual.
 
Old 08-10-2012, 01:41 PM
 
20,318 posts, read 37,826,095 times
Reputation: 18108
I don't see the divide in COLO (or any other state) healing any time soon; it's bad and going to get worse with all the mud and hate going around.

Colo is a toss up again and with only 9 electoral votes I'm not sure why either party affords so much emphasis on this state.
__________________
- Please follow our TOS.
- Any Questions about City-Data? See the FAQ list.
- Want some detailed instructions on using the site? See The Guide for plain english explanation.
- Realtors are welcome here but do see our Realtor Advice to avoid infractions.
- Thank you and enjoy City-Data.
 
Old 08-10-2012, 03:08 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,365,466 times
Reputation: 4132
I think its going to be a toss up in Colorado this year. The typical cities (Boulder, Denver, Pueblo) will vote for President Obama and Colorado Springs will vote for Romney. The question is what will the rest of the state be and what will the turn out be like in those cities I mentioned.
 
Old 08-10-2012, 04:02 PM
 
704 posts, read 1,441,226 times
Reputation: 629
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllenSJC View Post
Ah, ok.

Is there much of a difference between Douglas County and the parts of Jefferson and Arapahoe that border it? Or El Paso County? This whole region seems to be the demographic heartland of the Republican Party in Colorado, these days.
Jefferson County gets more conservative as you go south (towards Douglas County). Arapahoe County is actually a mostly rural county, but the population is primarily centered in subruban Denver. The "border" between Douglas and Arapahoe Counties is, I believe, the Denver Tech Center, and is very wealthy. It's not really liberal or conservative, just wealthy. If wealthy subruban whites break for Romney this year, then they'll probably swing Arapahoe County towards Romney.

The "demographic heartland," as you call it, of the Republican Party in Colorado is sort of three-pronged. One prong is definitely El Paso and Douglas Counties, and the area from Denver's southern suburbs through Colorado Springs. That is likely the most vote-rich. But there are also Denver's northern exurbs that stretch into fast-growing Weld County, as Loveland (in Larimer County) and Greeley (in Weld County). The Western Slope, generally, is fast-growing and also is a big GOP target. The "demographic heartland" of the Democratic Party is definitely Denver County, pieces of the northern suburbs, and much of Boulder County. Pueblo County, as well as much of Hispanic southern Colorado, has actually been trending Republican. It's still very important to Democrats in statewide races, but not nearly as important as it once was--primarily because of that GOP trend and the Democratic trend in Denver's suburbs.
 
Old 08-10-2012, 06:09 PM
 
1,260 posts, read 1,047,324 times
Reputation: 1057
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneNative View Post
Jefferson County gets more conservative as you go south (towards Douglas County). Arapahoe County is actually a mostly rural county, but the population is primarily centered in subruban Denver. The "border" between Douglas and Arapahoe Counties is, I believe, the Denver Tech Center, and is very wealthy. It's not really liberal or conservative, just wealthy. If wealthy subruban whites break for Romney this year, then they'll probably swing Arapahoe County towards Romney.

The "demographic heartland," as you call it, of the Republican Party in Colorado is sort of three-pronged. One prong is definitely El Paso and Douglas Counties, and the area from Denver's southern suburbs through Colorado Springs. That is likely the most vote-rich. But there are also Denver's northern exurbs that stretch into fast-growing Weld County, as Loveland (in Larimer County) and Greeley (in Weld County). The Western Slope, generally, is fast-growing and also is a big GOP target. The "demographic heartland" of the Democratic Party is definitely Denver County, pieces of the northern suburbs, and much of Boulder County. Pueblo County, as well as much of Hispanic southern Colorado, has actually been trending Republican. It's still very important to Democrats in statewide races, but not nearly as important as it once was--primarily because of that GOP trend and the Democratic trend in Denver's suburbs.
Thanks for the detailed response. Hasn't the Western Slope seen an influx of liberals in the resort areas? Or am I mistaken there?

Also, rural eastern Colorado is pretty Republican, but not that many voters live there, relatively speaking.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


 

Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2016 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Colorado
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top