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Old 04-07-2013, 09:51 AM
 
Location: Ned CO @ 8300'
1,993 posts, read 4,186,774 times
Reputation: 2767

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From OpenSnow The Colorado Daily Snow | OpenSnow

The main story is a big storm that will bring snow to most areas Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Tuesday will be a powder day for most resorts. Nearly all resorts will see about 5-10 inches from the storm, with about 10-18 inches for areas east of the divide and in some parts of the San Juans. A weaker storm will bring snow on Thursday.
Monday:
The powerful storm will be approaching from the southwest. The first half of the day will be dry with increasing winds from the southwest. Unfortunately it looks like these strong winds could blow dust into Colorado from southern Utah and northern Arizona. Dust forecasting isn't very accurate so I have low confidence about what will actually happen, but it looks like the combination of strong winds and a dry start to Monday will produce blowing dust. Let's hope this isn't the case, but the setup looks classic.
By Monday afternoon, the storm will move closer to the four corners and snow will increase over the San Juans. Areas north of the San Juans won't see much accumulation on Monday afternoon but snow showers will become more numerous from late afternoon through the evening.
Monday night through Tuesday:
This is the main part of the storm. Snow will increase for all areas Monday night and last through Tuesday evening before tapering off late in the evening or during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning.
The computer models still aren't in perfect agreement, but there's enough consensus for me to be rather confident that Tuesday should be a nice powder day for most areas. Temperatures will feel winter-like with highs in the upper teens. **The heaviest snow will fall east of the divide (Eldora) and in the San Juans with many areas seeing more than a foot. I think somewhere in the eastern foothills between about 7,000-10,000ft (east of the divide and west of the plains) could see two feet or more depending on the exact track of the storm.**
Monarch could also do quite well Monday night into Tuesday with storm totals approaching a foot. Other areas in the central and northern mountains (roughly Aspen up to I-70) should see about 5-10 inches. It could easily be more if a few heavier snow bands move over a lucky ski area. There is a ton of moisture in the air and lots of storm energy to lift the air, so I have high confidence that most areas will see good snow on Tuesday.


Oh yeah!

 
Old 04-07-2013, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,365,466 times
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This storm is suppose to have a north wind component so unless something changes, like last time, Pueblo is not forecasted to get any snow.
 
Old 04-07-2013, 07:08 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,756 posts, read 16,463,186 times
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The weather gurus have been off the mark with regard to snow totals so often, that the only meaningful snowfall total is what's on the ground AFTER the storm has moved out of the area. IF 8 to 16 inches would have actually accumulated every time it was forecasted this winter, the snowpack would be somewhere on the plus side of 100%. Apparently they simply flip coins or consult with the tooth fairy to determine how much snow will accumulate in any given area. A weather forecast with snowfall totals for the Colorado mountains is something best taken with a grain of salt, and appreciated for the entertainment value it provides. To see it as more than that is an invitation for disappointment.

Last edited by CosmicWizard; 04-07-2013 at 07:17 PM..
 
Old 04-07-2013, 07:35 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,116,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
The weather gurus have been off the mark with regard to snow totals so often, that the only meaningful snowfall total is what's on the ground AFTER the storm has moved out of the area. IF 8 to 16 inches would have actually accumulated every time it was forecasted this winter, the snowpack would be somewhere on the plus side of 100%. Apparently they simply flip coins or consult with the tooth fairy to determine how much snow will accumulate in any given area. A weather forecast with snowfall totals for the Colorado mountains is something best taken with a grain of salt, and appreciated for the entertainment value it provides. To see it as more than that is an invitation for disappointment.
All so very true. Unlike weather forecasting on the coasts, Colorado's inland location combined with the jumbled topography that storm tracks must traverse in order to get here make forecasting accurately exceedingly difficult. One of the unfortunate aspects of drought conditions that we now are suffering is that the dry conditions themselves can significantly influence the weather pattern. Dry soil conditions and snowless ground contribute to above average warming and drying of the air over the region. This can create a high pressure dome of warm air strong enough to deflect weaker storm systems. Thus, in a sense, drought begets more drought. Once this "feedback" cycle becomes entrenched, it can take some fairly dramatic weather events to dislodge it--something that has largely been lacking for way over a year now in most of the southern Rockies.
 
Old 04-07-2013, 07:38 PM
Status: "Not politically correct" (set 5 days ago)
 
Location: Western Colorado
10,557 posts, read 11,653,218 times
Reputation: 24234
Here's all the watches and warnings just posted:

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary
 
Old 04-07-2013, 07:53 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,116,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jim9251 View Post
Here's all the watches and warnings just posted:

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary
What I hope for is significant precipitation out this storm without temperatures dropping too low. Significantly below freezing temperatures in the next few days could imperil the early fruit crops (apricots, peaches, cherries) as the blooms on those trees are already in bud in west central Colorado. The worst case would be a storm event with little precipitation, but well-below freezing temperatures.
 
Old 04-07-2013, 08:17 PM
 
Location: Ned CO @ 8300'
1,993 posts, read 4,186,774 times
Reputation: 2767
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
The weather gurus have been off the mark with regard to snow totals so often, that the only meaningful snowfall total is what's on the ground AFTER the storm has moved out of the area. Apparently they simply flip coins or consult with the tooth fairy to determine how much snow will accumulate in any given area. A weather forecast with snowfall totals for the Colorado mountains is something best taken with a grain of salt, and appreciated for the entertainment value it provides. To see it as more than that is an invitation for disappointment.
True. I've lived here long enough (31 years) to adopt the "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude. Yet I continue to remain hopeful. We have been very fortunate in my area recently. The past few storms have produced MORE snow than what was predicted. Tuesday/Wednesday's 7" came from a 2-3" forecast. The foot of snow we received on March 22nd/23rd was a 6" forecast.
I will report on Wednesday whether or not the coin flip/tooth fairy predictions were anywhere near accurate.
 
Old 04-08-2013, 07:55 AM
Status: "Not politically correct" (set 5 days ago)
 
Location: Western Colorado
10,557 posts, read 11,653,218 times
Reputation: 24234
Winter Storm Warnings, Blizzard Warnings for a lot of the state. This is predicted to be a wet heavy snow event (let's hope so) with 24" or more for the high country and even 5" of more for the valleys on the western slope. This is a "four corners" system and should pack a real punch. Keep our fingers crossed.
 
Old 04-08-2013, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,365,466 times
Reputation: 4132
Talking Spring in Colorado

^

From what I can tell the artic front is pushing the low pressure a little bit future south. I am hoping it tracks across northern New Mexico as that would give Pueblo a classic Albuquerque Low and a significant snow event.

My personal thoughts are the city of Pueblo will see 6-12 inches of snow with more snow in the suburbs of Beulah, Rye, Colorado City and Hatchet Ranch.

Officially there are two watches out for the city.

First:

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
431 AM MDT MON APR 8 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT...WHICH INCLUDES PUEBLO...EASTERN HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS..CROWLEY...OTERO...BENT...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...FIRES COULD START...SPREAD AND GROW VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE SUSPENDED. ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

The second one:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 AM MDT MON APR 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION BETWEEN COLORADO SPRINGS AND THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF PUEBLO...COLORADO SPRINGS...WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD.

* CAUSE AND TIMING...A SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 6 INCHES WITH SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AM AND 2 PM.

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACT...DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY ICY DUE TO PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING IS LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FORSEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. WINTER STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TOHEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER OVER8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WATCH...LISTEN TOTHE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHERTIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN OR THROUGH THE WATCH AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WATCH...TAKE ALONG A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT.

Then this story from the Pueblo Chieftain:

A change is blowin’ in: Puebloans could wake up to blizzard conditions Tuesday.

Have you enjoyed the beautiful weather in Pueblo the last several days? Well, you can expect changes beginning tonight. While temperatures early today still will be warm, a winter storm is expected to move in this evening that will bring snow to the area.

The link: A change is blowin

Last edited by Josseppie; 04-08-2013 at 10:05 AM..
 
Old 04-08-2013, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,102 posts, read 20,365,466 times
Reputation: 4132
Talking Blizzard Warning

The NWS in Pueblo has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Blizzard Warning!

I am still predicting 6-12 inches of snow in the city of Pueblo with more snow in the suburbs of Beulah, Rye, Colorado City and Hatchet Ranch.

This is from the NWS in Pueblo:



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1209 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...THE I-25 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS FROM COLORADO SPRINGS...DOWN THROUGH PUEBLO...CANON CITY...WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD ALL THE WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

* CAUSE AND TIMING...A SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 6 INCHES WITH SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AM AND 2 PM.

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACT...DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY ICY DUE TO PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING IS LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIFE THREATENING WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITY REDUCED TO BELOW 1/4 MILE BY FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

AVOID TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING... LISTEN TO THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...TAKE ALONG A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT. IF YOU BECOME STRANDED IN A RURAL AREA...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS DURING PAST BLIZZARDS...PEOPLE HAVE DIED OF EXPOSURE WHILE TRYING TO WALK TO SHELTER. TO KEEP WARM IN YOUR VEHICLE...RUN YOUR ENGINE 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR...AND MAKE SURE THE EXHAUST PIPE IS CLEAR OF SNOW TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
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