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Old 12-16-2012, 03:05 PM
 
Location: Betwixt and Between
463 posts, read 978,412 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Computer models appear a bit more favorable for Colorado showing colder and semi-stormy pattern for the rest of the month. Some mountain snow possibilities with upslope potential as colder air will make inroads further south.

Aren't computer models based on historical data? How can we accurately model the anomilies that we are currently experiencing?
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Old 12-16-2012, 04:07 PM
 
Location: IN
20,784 posts, read 35,813,413 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lugnuts View Post
Aren't computer models based on historical data? How can we accurately model the anomilies that we are currently experiencing?
I was referring to the GFS computer model. It is found online in the NCEP suite of model guidance website. It has forecasts for up to 16 days out and is updated four times a day. 0Z (12AM), 6Z (6AM), 12Z (12PM), and 18Z (6PM). I like to refer to the models to get a general trend of the overall pattern for temps and precip.
In summary, the West will see a good bit of storminess the rest of the month, particularly the coast. Mount Rainer in Washington will likely see over 100 inches of snowfall over the next week. That is very stormy.
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:07 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,774,765 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
I was referring to the GFS computer model. It is found online in the NCEP suite of model guidance website. It has forecasts for up to 16 days out and is updated four times a day. 0Z (12AM), 6Z (6AM), 12Z (12PM), and 18Z (6PM). I like to refer to the models to get a general trend of the overall pattern for temps and precip.
In summary, the West will see a good bit of storminess the rest of the month, particularly the coast. Mount Rainer in Washington will likely see over 100 inches of snowfall over the next week. That is very stormy.
Neither the European or GFS computer weather forecast models are especially reliable for Colorado weather. They often present divergent "solutions" for a weather forecast and meteorologists have to make judgment calls about which one--if either--offers a reliable forecast. That's why we get forecasts around here that show "100%" chance of snow and we get zilch, or, less commonly, it shows a 20% chance that winds up being waist deep.

I can usually make about as reliable a short-term forecast as the NWS by looking at cloud type and movement, temperature trends, humidity levels, and barometric readings--but I have decades of experience all over Colorado looking at those things.

As for western Washington state weather, one of my relatives there seldom misses on his weather forecast: "If you can see Mount Rainier, it is going to rain; if you can't see it, it is raining."
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Old 12-17-2012, 09:32 AM
 
863 posts, read 1,309,387 times
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Jazz, that's how I do my weather forecasts here in Colorado Springs- based on my ability to see Pikes Peak or not. Granted, especially recently, it's just low clouds that have all the moisture sucked out of it due to the drought.
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Old 12-23-2012, 08:38 AM
 
Location: Kingman AZ
15,371 posts, read 34,579,301 times
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the best forecaster is a weather rock
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Old 12-24-2012, 11:54 PM
 
Location: Centennial State
399 posts, read 690,434 times
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Boulder is still getting snow and there's a visible 1.3 inches on the sidewalks not including the part that melted as it first came down.
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