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Old 09-09-2013, 05:20 PM
 
Location: Vernon, British Columbia
3,019 posts, read 2,683,545 times
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Predicting the future is soothsaying, not science. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a soothsayer.

 
Old 09-09-2013, 10:10 PM
 
Location: CO/UT/AZ/NM Catch me if you can!
4,700 posts, read 4,339,330 times
Reputation: 10290
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glacierx View Post
Predicting the future is soothsaying, not science. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a soothsayer.
There will be increased sunspot activity every 11 years.

If I don't stop smoking now, there is a 40% higher chance that I will have emphasema by age 80 (if I live that long).

When I build my home in a flood plain, it will be swept away in a torrent of water sometime in the next 50 years.

If the local nuclear power plant blows, me and my neighbors will die of radiation sickness within a year or less.

Tah Dah! I am now the official Colorado Forum Soothsayer in Chief! You may kiss my special Colorado Climate ruby studded gold ring if you're nice.
 
Old 09-10-2013, 01:54 AM
 
Location: CO/UT/AZ/NM Catch me if you can!
4,700 posts, read 4,339,330 times
Reputation: 10290
As for this prediction thing, again let me clarify. THERE IS NOW NO NEED FOR PREDICTION – EVERY LAST ONE OF YOU CAN NOW GO SEE FOR YOURSELVES.

I came across the following tonight in one of my insomnia fits. I should have just gulped down a half dozen xanax, but instead I read this on the Internet: What’s Killing the Great Forests of the American West.

WARNING - for the one or two people out there who actually click on links and read them and love the Colorado Mountains, this article has got to be one of the most depressing things I have come across thus far. And it's three years old, so things are even worse now. It's a real downer and Mountain Lovers would probably be happier to have never seen it like me until I accidently and sadly came across it tonight.

Quote:
While people in some places have the luxury to doubt whether climate change is real, it’s harder to be a doubter in the Rocky Mountains. Glaciers in Glacier National Park and elsewhere are shrinking, winters are warmer and shorter, and the intensity of forest fires is increasing. But the most obvious sign is the red and dead forests that carpet the hills and mountains. They have transformed life in many parts of the Rockies.
So one would effing think. Small wonder that Colorado natives like me and jazzlover get so irritated with some of you folks and lose our tempers. Even people like Idunn who is one of the politest persons on the board, get annoyed sometimes. Maybe the sentence above should say “Rocky Mountains except for 99% of the Colorado Front Range who are stumbling around in oblivion along with members of a bizarre conspiracy cult who have had just a little too much Kool-Aide.”

Good grief! You people don’t even need to get out of your oversized SUV’s and Hummers that will never be driven on a single dirt road. Just drive on west on I-70 up to Vail and look out the windows. You people down in the Springs can fight your way up clogged Highway 24 to Divide if the Black Forest and Waldo Canyon fires weren’t enough for you. See all those dead trees out the window of your luxury sized, gas guzzling SUV? That’s not normal, Mr. or Ms. From Somewhere Else and Couldn’t Care Less. You don’t have to take my and jl’s and the rest’s word for it either. There are endless pictures of the Colorado Mountains taken 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago and more. The trees were GREEN back then. Get it? Green.

Quote:
Across western North America, from Mexico to Alaska, forest die-off is occurring on an extraordinary scale, unprecedented in at least the last century-and-a-half — and perhaps much longer. All told, the Rocky Mountains in Canada and the United States have seen nearly 70,000 square miles of forest — an area the size of Washington state — die since 2000. For the most part, this massive die-off is being caused by outbreaks of tree-killing insects, from the ips beetle in the Southwest that has killed pinyon pine, to the spruce beetle, fir beetle, and the major pest — the mountain pine beetle — that has hammered forests in the north.
Even people who are red/green color blind should be able to notice a phenomenon as large as the entire state of Washington. And no, me and my band of buddies – the commie, scientific liars, lefties did NOT go out into the mountains one night and somehow kill all those trees because we want the US to become a Communist dictatorship or just for grins or whatever the reason de jour you and your fellow cult members have come up with now.

I’ll give you the truth at last. Actually, we did it so all the rest of you would be driven out by the drought and we can finally have our state back. Then we’re gonna put a 1,000 foot steel wall all around Colorado, revive the forests when no one is looking, and trash the once well-groomed down hill slopes at Telluride with our mountaineering ski’s and give each other high fives. It’s OK, jazzlover! You can come back now. We’ll let you in the secret door.

Makes much more sense than some of the zany replies I have read thus far.

Quote:
A lot of beetles can also turn vast tracks of forest from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Take British Columbia, which is ground zero for the mountain pine beetle infestation in North America. Some 53,000 square miles of mature pine forest is dead and the province is projected to lose 80 percent of its mature lodgepole pine trees by 2013. The second largest known die-off there occurred in the 1980s and claimed just 2,300 square miles. Bill Wilson — the province’s director of Industry, Trade and Economics Research — said he has flown in a plane for hours over the province and seen nothing but dead forest the entire time.
We call him Comrade Bill. He's the cadre of our sister organization in BC - "Get rid of the People-from-Somewhere-Else." Nice job, Comrade! We'll have them all fooled and out of the Western US and British Columbia in no time!

I KNEW I never should have started this stupid thread.

Last edited by Colorado Rambler; 09-10-2013 at 02:31 AM..
 
Old 09-10-2013, 06:25 AM
 
1,565 posts, read 2,821,643 times
Reputation: 2002
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colorado Rambler View Post
There will be increased sunspot activity every 11 years.
Great example of the fallacy of our predictive capabilities based on a miniscule snapshot of the physical history of our world!

Why is this called sunspot cycle 24? Do you think there have only been 24 cycles since the beginning of our sun? No, it's because we've only monitored it since the mid 1700s. Comprehensive history for extrapolation purposes - just like climate change, monitored for even a shorter period of time. Isn't it?

Sometimes it's 9 years and other times it's 13 years.
"Scientists" predicted this would be a very high sunspot cycle before it began in 2008. As it turns out, it's the lowest peak in 50 years.
 
Old 09-10-2013, 09:58 AM
 
Location: CO/UT/AZ/NM Catch me if you can!
4,700 posts, read 4,339,330 times
Reputation: 10290
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarryK123 View Post
Great example of the fallacy of our predictive capabilities based on a miniscule snapshot of the physical history of our world!

Why is this called sunspot cycle 24? Do you think there have only been 24 cycles since the beginning of our sun? No, it's because we've only monitored it since the mid 1700s. Comprehensive history for extrapolation purposes - just like climate change, monitored for even a shorter period of time. Isn't it?

Sometimes it's 9 years and other times it's 13 years.
"Scientists" predicted this would be a very high sunspot cycle before it began in 2008. As it turns out, it's the lowest peak in 50 years.
I love it! "Scientists." I spent 6 years of post secondary education and got two college degrees, so that I could be a "scientist" with quote marks around the word. Some people deserve what they're going to get.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sun spot activity can oscillate between 9 - 13 year intervals. Try this. It's called "finding the average."

You add the two values: 9 + 13 = 22
Then divide the sum by 2 since you only have two values. (If you had three values, you'd divide by 3, etc.)

22 divided by 2 = 11

Even my brats back in the day at Ft Lewis College were able to do that much. Do they no longer teach addition and multiplication tables these days? You even get to use your little hand held calculator. I promise I won't bust you for cheating.

Last edited by Colorado Rambler; 09-10-2013 at 10:24 AM..
 
Old 09-10-2013, 10:11 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,846,559 times
Reputation: 9316
Colorado Rambler wrote: Warning! No predictions allowed!

I think you are taking it a bit too far. People are going to make predictions. It's simply human nature to do so. I enjoy reading predictions, though I take them ALL with a grain of salt. What will be will be, regardless of what is predicted. On occasion, the predictions are spot on, and on many other occasions they miss the mark by a wide margin, scientists included.
 
Old 09-10-2013, 01:59 PM
 
Location: CO/UT/AZ/NM Catch me if you can!
4,700 posts, read 4,339,330 times
Reputation: 10290
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Colorado Rambler wrote: Warning! No predictions allowed!

I think you are taking it a bit too far. People are going to make predictions. It's simply human nature to do so. I enjoy reading predictions, though I take them ALL with a grain of salt. What will be will be, regardless of what is predicted. On occasion, the predictions are spot on, and on many other occasions they miss the mark by a wide margin, scientists included.
I guess the comment you quoted got orphaned because I must have been editing my post at the same time you replied to it.

In case you haven't already noticed, I probably write some of the more sarcastic posts around. Sometimes my sardonic comments get taken for reals. Sorry about that, and predict away.
 
Old 09-10-2013, 07:05 PM
 
1,565 posts, read 2,821,643 times
Reputation: 2002
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colorado Rambler View Post
I love it! "Scientists." I spent 6 years of post secondary education and got two college degrees, so that I could be a "scientist" with quote marks around the word. Some people deserve what they're going to get.
Wow, goodie for you. You are smarter than me because I needed 12 years of post-secondary education, but only one college degree - I guess I got college right the first time

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colorado Rambler View Post
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sun spot activity can oscillate between 9 - 13 year intervals. Try this. It's called "finding the average."

You add the two values: 9 + 13 = 22
Then divide the sum by 2 since you only have two values. (If you had three values, you'd divide by 3, etc.)

22 divided by 2 = 11
"Average" is a very unscientific term. Did you mean "finding the mean?"

In any event, you said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colorado Rambler View Post
There will be increased sunspot activity every 11 years.
"Scientists" should be precise. Every 11 years is not the same as every 9-13 years.

Ok, I'm done now.
 
Old 09-11-2013, 03:12 AM
 
Location: CO/UT/AZ/NM Catch me if you can!
4,700 posts, read 4,339,330 times
Reputation: 10290
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarryK123 View Post

Ok, I'm done now.
Let us thank God for small mercies. I wish MikeFBE would just close this thread sometimes. People should never post on subjects they feel deeply about on the Internet. Not me, anyhow.

Here in the Four Corners we are sacrificing the San Juan and Little Colorado River due to so many competing demands for water. The San Miguel River looks like hell, as does the Dolores - although the current series of rainstorms have brought some much needed relief, it is only a temporary. Stands of beetle killed trees line slopes that were once filled with the scent of pinon or spruce. Habitat is being destroyed and the wild creatures which live in our mountains retreat helplessly toward higher elevations in the face of warming and drought. Our local papers have headlines like "Hard times for Ranchers and small Farmers." With McPhee down to 27% of normal, there will be almost no crops left to harvest this year. The people who make their living off the land are in serious trouble here in Montezuma County and we are far from alone.

Even the folks on the Arkansas forum are posting about the drought and the deaths of their hardwood trees. Last year was the driest in Montezuma County in 28 years, drier even than the benchmark year of 2002. Colorado state climatologists predict only more of the same to come. Where once there was the scent of pinon pine there are now vast swaths of dead trees. That hardy tree so emblematic of the Southwest that always made it through the worst of times in this arid land is succoming to the swarms of insects which are also destroying our Ponderosa Pine, our Blue Spruce, our Douglas Fir, our Lodgepole. The Aspen display a phenomenon known as S.A.D. - sudden Aspen die - off due to drought.

The forests are terminally ill and 90% of the people who read or respond to this thread don't care/don't believe it/don't want to do anything but be small minded and close minded and make ignorant replies they think are clever. It's an exercise in futility.

Mike, if it's possible to close a thread at the OP's request, I wish you would.

I'm gone up to the San Juans.

Last edited by Colorado Rambler; 09-11-2013 at 04:24 AM..
 
Old 09-11-2013, 06:36 AM
 
147 posts, read 187,779 times
Reputation: 291
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colorado Rambler View Post
... The forests are terminally ill and 90% of the people who read or respond to this thread don't care/don't believe it/don't want to do anything but be small minded and close minded and make ignorant replies they think are clever. It's an exercise in futility.

Mike, if it's possible to close a thread at the OP's request, I wish you would.
Yes, Mike, please close this thread. There are too many people using calm, analytical reasoning to dismiss the notion of artificial warming. You must cutoff debate before even more people are turned to the dark side. The initial emotionalism of AGW has been fading over the years. People are starting to think rationally, and question the integrity of the people who got the world whooped into a frenzy over this naturally occurring phenomenon. Folks are beginning to see the real agenda. Even calling people names isn't working anymore. So, yes, please close this thread before the UN comes here and closes it for you.

Note: the previous paragraph was with tongue firmly in cheek.
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