Some interesting predictions for 2008 (credit, relocation, luxury house)

[livecontent]

I get by on less than 5 gallons a week--about 2, maybe 3 gallons in some weeks. There are weeks were I do not use my car--I walk; I ride the bus; I stay home--so some weeks I use no gasoline. So I figure I use about 7-8 gallons a month over a year--my car get 23 mpg. in the city. I did a lot of driving this month and I think I got gas last a week before Christmas.

I am retired now but when I was working--I attempted and succeeded many weeks and used no gas--I walked; used my bicycle or took a bus.

Of course, I live in a neighborhood where I can walk within 1/2 mile for most services, grocery, bank, hardware, drugstore, movies, restaurants, and I am within 1/3 mile to a major bus route. It is just lucky that a rail station is being built about 1/3 mile from my house.

It is a choice that I have made. If I was moving to a house today--I would have better choices of where to live, as there are much better transportation choices with stores being clustered in these new Transportation Oriented Developments.

I believe there are many choices in the suburbs and self contained towns, as well as Denver, that can accommodate a carfree or carless lifestyle.

Again it is a matter of choice--a choice of where you choose to work; a choice where you choice to live; a choice where you choose to recreate; a choice to walk instead of ride; a choice of bicycling instead of autoing; a choice of staying home or cruising;
and a choice of using up a a non-renewal resource or conserve it for future generations.

Please make the right choice and you can
Livecontent

[hello-world]

i suppose that is part of the flip side of the "relationship" between developers of commercial space, developers of residential space, politicians, and other interested parties; sometimes, if done well, everybody can prosper. stores by residences, AND sidewalks, AND bus stops near all these can blend for maybe about as good as it gets. so long as you can find that blend. and things are well built. and not JUST built to promote more growth. and maybe we then CAN livecontent.

[Mike from back east]

Here's what we find in today WaPo on the outlook for 2008, two basic views:
- The Cross Your Fingers and Hope it all Goes Right View
- The Lock Your Wallet and Hold onto Your Money View

washingtonpost.com

Also the quarterly financial / mutual fund reports are listed on this page, etc.

Nothing in the story changes my own view that 2008 is a recession year, no matter what the POLs come up with in the way of tax gimmix to buy voter allegiance for the national election.

[multitrak]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Nothing in the story changes my own view that 2008 is a recession year, no matter what the POLs come up with in the way of tax gimmix to buy voter allegiance for the national election.

Predictions for 2008

note several predictions in this piece: one, the subprime mess that began in '07 will continued unabated in '08, resulting in super tight restrictions on new house loans (Countrywide was going down the tubes this week until it found Bank of America Countrywide Take-Under - Forbes.com) and that large and more expensive homes are finding fewer and fewer buyers (significant for Colorado's high priced real estate), and two, China is trying to clean up its foul air before the Olympics and that action may soften its economy or force it into a recession regardless of what happens in the US.

[Mike from back east]

COL SPGS paper has a piece focusing on the predictions of a local UCCS type with his prediction:
- Top Stories: Economist hints at recession; Springs somewhat insulated | economist, recession, springs - Gazette.com

He says were "near the bottom" and "poised for a turnaround."

Such talk seems unsound. We can't know when or what a bottom is until that market actually start heading upwards, be it stock, housing, bond, job or other markets. I don't know how to predict we're 'near' a bottom. Bottoms are noted from taking a backwards-looking view (after-the-fact) that tells you when a bottom was. Same for recessions, you must have 2 back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth to have a recession, which can only be confirmed from a backwards view after the numbers are reported.

Still, for lovers of all things financial, the article is brief and does note the opinions of some other fine economists.

[hello-world]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

COL SPGS paper has a piece focusing on the predictions of a local UCCS type with his prediction:
- Top Stories: Economist hints at recession; Springs somewhat insulated | economist, recession, springs - Gazette.com

He says were "near the bottom" and "poised for a turnaround."

Such talk seems unsound. We can't know when or what a bottom is until that market actually start heading upwards, be it stock, housing, bond, job or other markets. I don't know how to predict we're 'near' a bottom. Bottoms are noted from taking a backwards-looking view (after-the-fact) that tells you when a bottom was. Same for recessions, you must have 2 back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth to have a recession, which can only be confirmed from a backwards view after the numbers are reported.

Still, for lovers of all things financial, the article is brief and does note the opinions of some other fine economists.

i remember people talking about being poised near the bottom of the housing market over a year ago... i think you're right, we can't definitively "know" we're at a bottom, though i think we can sense whether we're there yet with all the indicators, history, and pundits' opinions out there.

[CosmicWizard]

It's ironic that we as a society ridicule the astrologers who attempt to predict the future, yet the same society puts financial prognosticators on a pedestal. Though I have no facts to back it up, I would venture a guess that the astrologers are at least as accurrate as the financial gurus who have the expertise ( foolishness ) to forecast the future. In my mind at least, an astrologers prediction based on something real like the stars and planets is likely to be more valid than a financial experts prediction based on a collection of numbers in a database.

[multitrak]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

We can't know when or what a bottom is until that market actually start heading upwards, be it stock, housing, bond, job or other markets. I don't know how to predict we're 'near' a bottom. Bottoms are noted from taking a backwards-looking view (after-the-fact) that tells you when a bottom was. Same for recessions, you must have 2 back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth to have a recession, which can only be confirmed from a backwards view after the numbers are reported.

The Edmond Sun, Edmond, OK - Will there be a recession in 2008? Just look ahead

this article is a pretty good one that explains the correlation between stock market fluctuations and the economy...there really isn't one! also, a person perception (for example, 9/11) may not jive with economic reality.

[jazzlover]

As one with a fair amount of training in economics, I especially like the quote I heard years ago, "If all of the economists in the world were placed end-to-end, they would never reach a conclusion."

Another quote, which invokes another passion of mine, climate and weather, says, "Economists and weather forecasters are two professions where one can be consistently wrong more than 50% of the time, and still keep one's job." That, and batting in the Major Leagues, where hitting .500 will get you a trophy.

Still, my favorite is, "A recession is when your next door neighbor is out of work and he can't pay his bills; a depression is when YOU are out of work and you can't pay your bills . . . "

[brightdoglover]

"Guy walks into a bar..." (economist version).

Two economists fall into a deep hole. They are unable to climb out. One says, "I know how we can get out. First, we assume a ladder."

I consider myself poised between white collar and blue collar. I make a good income in a professional licensed job, get paid by the hour, and come from the blue collar world. I have trouble imagining that anyone with a needed job (that is, not trust funders or retired people) consider the stock market to constitute "the economy." It's not "the economy, stupid," it's jobs. Working jobs. How can anyone consider any other economic aspect if out of a job or worried about same?
Next to that, or along with that, is health insurance. Those of us who have it, if not paying out of pocket, are one divorce, one layoff, one long illness/injury, or one hurricane away from not having it.