Some interesting predictions for 2008 (environment, skyscrapers, condo)

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by brightdoglover

....I have trouble imagining that anyone with a needed job .... consider the stock market to constitute "the economy." It's not "the economy, stupid," it's jobs. Working jobs. How can anyone consider any other economic aspect if out of a job or worried about same?.....

The recent uptick in the unemployment rate to 5% may be a leading indicator that recession is coming, or here. Layoffs may signal softening in the economy. I've a pal who follows the railroad industry and knows many RR employees. Some of them told him last fall that rail volume was off a bit, that instead of working 5 days a week they were down to 3 days per week. Much truth in job numbers as they immediately impact consumer spending (the bulk of our economy), as the out-of-work quickly stop discretionary spending like the movies, restaurants, clothes, vacations. The unemployed rarely shop for auto's, boats or big ticket toys.

[hello-world]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

It's ironic that we as a society ridicule the astrologers who attempt to predict the future, yet the same society puts financial prognosticators on a pedestal. Though I have no facts to back it up, I would venture a guess that the astrologers are at least as accurrate as the financial gurus who have the expertise ( foolishness ) to forecast the future. In my mind at least, an astrologers prediction based on something real like the stars and planets is likely to be more valid than a financial experts prediction based on a collection of numbers in a database.

great points. what we "trust" seems to be governed to an extent by who's got the power or who was born into more privelege, sometimes. i can think of plenty of quantitative occupations that are basically astrology. i think a couple named on this thread might, to some, qualify...

[jazzlover]

The latest (January 14, 2008) blog, titled "Disarray," from James Howard Kunstler's website ( James Howard Kunstler ) talks at length of his view of what is currently happening in the housing market and that is not just a problem limited to that market, but a symptom of a fundamentally mis-aligned economy.

I add this to this thread because of the following statements contained in the blog:

The "housing bubble" implosion is broadly misunderstood. It's not just the collapse of a market for a particular kind of commodity, it's the end of the suburban pattern itself, the way of life it represents, and the entire economy connected with it. It's the crack up of the system that America has invested most of its wealth in since 1950. It's perhaps most tragic that the mis-investments only accelerated as the system reached its end, but it seems to be nature's way that waves crest just before they break . . .

and--

A reader sent me a passel of recent clippings last week from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. It contained one story after another about the perceived need to build more highways in order to maintain "economic growth" (and incidentally about the "foolishness" of public transit). I understood that to mean the need to keep the suburban development system going, since that has been the real main source of the Sunbelt's prosperity the past 60-odd years. They cannot imagine an economy that is based on anything besides new subdivisions, freeway extensions, new car sales, and Nascar spectacles. The Sunbelt, therefore, will be ground-zero for all the disappointment emanating from this cultural disaster, and probably also ground-zero for the political mischief that will ensue from lost fortunes and crushed hopes.(emphasis added)

I think the "Sunbelt" description quite properly fits what is going to happen in and to Colorado.

[multitrak]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Let's get back to Kunstler's predictions.... are they
- valid?
- over the top?
- grain of truth taken to nth degree?
- glimpse of the future?
- good sarcastic humor poked at our financial and fuelish foibles?

IMO, Kunstler takes many grains of truth, which I don't dispute are there, and he weaves them through many paragraphs. But I think he extrapolates not only a worst case scenario - but way beyond. Perhaps his writing deserves to be the screenplay for a Stephen King horror flick:
- The Economic Armageddon That Ate Wall Street
- Hell in the Suburbs
- Attack of the SUV People

are kunstler's predictions valid? ever? take a look at this and you be da judge! now you know why i quit worrying about this stuff over 30 years ago, it's the same recycled bs, only updated for each new decade. these guys are so wrong that they're not funny anymore, just flat out boring. they beat ya over the head with the one time that they're right, but conveniently "forget" the 99 times when they're wrong!

the link is on the right side titled "Popular Content" 325. JIM KUNSTLER: WORLD'S ****TIEST FORECASTER

Peak Oil Debunked

[NewAgeRedneck]

IMO, the various forecasters really don't care too much wether their forecasts are right or wrong. Their primary interest is SELLING their books, newsletters, seminars, etc. However, to keep themselves in business, they have to forecast SOMETHING. Just about ANYTHING will do, especially if it arouses FEAR.

hey multi...

These guys can keep themnselves in business for years with ONE forecast that hits the mark. Like you say, forget the other 99 forecasts that miss the mark often by a wide margin ( like Harry Dent prediciting a 40000 DOW ). It's similar to a self help author like Wayne Dwyer. He had a best selling book more than 30 years ago and IMO he's essentially re-written that same book 20 times over with a new title each time....and they've all sold quite well. Robert Anthony & Deepak Chopra are 2 others who have used this strategy quite successfully.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by multitrak

are kunstler's predictions valid? ever? take a look at this and you be da judge! now you know why i quit worrying about this stuff over 30 years ago, it's the same recycled bs, only updated for each new decade. these guys are so wrong that they're not funny anymore, just flat out boring. they beat ya over the head with the one time that they're right, but conveniently "forget" the 99 times when they're wrong!

the link is on the right side titled "Popular Content" 325. JIM KUNSTLER: WORLD'S ****TIEST FORECASTER

Peak Oil Debunked

Multitrak: Dude, that's a cool site. I can't believe he predicted doom and gloom over Y2k. That's totally silly of him.

I was in the IT biz with the Army all during that time. I knew, ABSOLUTELY, that Y2k was a big nothing. Beginning about 1996-97, people started paying attention to the Y2k issues. Everyone, and I mean everyone, started re-working their software to preclude any issues when clocks ticked over from 99 to 00. In 1998 the spending really took off and continued on into 1999.

All levels of government - federal, state, city, county, and every agency in every government, and every bank and credit card and financial firm and everyone with a payroll system or an order/sales system, you name it, even makers of digital clocks, absolutely EVERYONE with a piece of software that had "date" data worked to fix the problem.

In the Army, as with ALL of the Federal govt, the word came down from Congress in the 1996 timeframe to fix it or else, and to do so within current budget lines for "IT Maintenance" and other such stuff. Then Congress got scared and decided to put up a pot of funds to speed the work. Why? Because they did NOT want to be the culprit if the sheet hit the fan. That pushed the pressure down to the agency level to fix it.

People spent money hand over fist. Ancient COBOL programmers came out of retirement, for nice bonus money, to work on decades old systems, in both govt and in industry. We did our job in our agency. We checked and double checked and ran all sorts of test runs on our national defense systems for deploying the force. We tested data feeds across agencies as well as within our own agencies. We knew we were good to go.

In 1999 we hired outside auditors to come in and double check the double checkers, get an outsider to check our work. It all worked. I sat with the auditors quite a few times on the systems and products for which I was the main person (though not a programmer, I was the in-house integrator for lots of stuff, like the mileage calculator within the Defense Travel System, etc). We got a big laugh over all the doom and gloom crap at the time.

By late 1999 we were 100% good to go. So was the entire nation. Only one fluke event happened on 1-1-2000, and that was a minor glitch in one spy satellite, which was quickly fixed.

I knew nothing would happen. I knew the wild spending would dry up shortly after Y2k and the stock market would sneeze on softening revenue in the IT sector. Turns out that the dot-com crash started about the same time, but the two events really aren't connected. Lots of people stocked up on food, water, batteries, etc, in advance of the disaster that Y2k was 'sure' to bring us. Only thing I bought was a bottle of champaigne to ring in the new year.

FWIW: When 9-11 and anthrax happened, I did not rush out and buy duct tape and plastic sheeting.

Silly, irrational fears abound. Always have. Trust your gut.

[SheridanL]

Here's my take,..although not as articulate as yours.

1. I lived in Colorado my whole life.
2. I moved from Colorado 9 months ago to the beach in Florida.
3. I have seen ALL of the "FOR SALE" signs lined up along the beach!!WHEWW!!!!!!!!! UNREAL!!
4. In 9 months, NOTHING has sold.
5. In the first 6 months, my home in Colorado didn't sell (NO BITES!)
6. Even here on the beach in Florida, if you could get a house for free, it would be extremely difficult to pay the taxes!! This home I am in,....the taxes are 42,000.00 a year....increasing monthly. Most on the beach average 100,000 to 250,000 a year.
7. Within 10 months, I am moving BACK to Colorado to my UNsold home!!
8. We have our OWN internet business ( which we can do anywhere) and consists of robotics, infra red, micro controllers, etc.
9. The biggest mileage eater is: going to the post office. I HATE IT but, it is one of our shipping options.
10. We have a contract with UPS. They pick up daily (and deliver goods daily) and, one only has to update your software (constantly) to the NEW fuel prices to realize where the economy is heading!!
11. FUEL PRICES ARE ON THE RISE...not dropping!!!!
12. We have not been in our home in Colorado for 9 months, yet,...our GAS bill is over 500.00 dollars this past month....hello!!! NO ONE IS THERE!!
13. As fuel rises, so does the cost of receiving goods, however this plays a part in ones life. Cars, heating your home, cooling your home, groceries (they get them to the stores somehow!) etc.
14. I am/have, what some have described as "luxury houses". They say they are on the rise......REALLY??? Are you sure??? HMMM??? My supposed "luxury home" sure didn't sell. Maybe, people realize how MUCH it will cost to upkeep the home...
15. Hard assets are the ONLY thing I think will survive this mess. Be it a couple of years or so, they will come back....eventually. Not so with paper, money in banks, cd's, money markets, you get the picture. If the banks lend OUR money to those who can't pay it back (millions of times over) then HOW do you think you will get your $$'s out??
16. I am not as smart as most of you but, I can only be slapped in the face soo many times with the proverbial "reality" check.
17. I'm with Jazzlover, it's not "IF",...it's "WHEN". I say 2008.

[multitrak]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

IMO, the various forecasters really don't care too much wether their forecasts are right or wrong. Their primary interest is SELLING their books, newsletters, seminars, etc. However, to keep themselves in business, they have to forecast SOMETHING. Just about ANYTHING will do, especially if it arouses FEAR.

hey multi...

These guys can keep themnselves in business for years with ONE forecast that hits the mark. Like you say, forget the other 99 forecasts that miss the mark often by a wide margin ( like Harry Dent prediciting a 40000 DOW ). It's similar to a self help author like Wayne Dwyer. He had a best selling book more than 30 years ago and IMO he's essentially re-written that same book 20 times over with a new title each time....and they've all sold quite well. Robert Anthony & Deepak Chopra are 2 others who have used this strategy quite successfully.

gloom and doom (and to a lesser extent boom) has been a cottage industry in the US for a long as i can remember. some people have an innate pessimistic bent and doomers cater to these folks fears with doom de jour. kunstler is no different than the other doomers that have come and gone over the decades. they throw their bricks and break some glass, but other than repeatedly crying wolf, they're pretty much irrelevant after getting their 15 minutes of media preening... and speaking about that one "right" call that hits mark (sort of), Bob Prechter persistently predicted a huge dow rise from 2000 to 3600 in 1987. The Wall Street Journal in a front page article headlined "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," wrote

In early 1987, the "Elliott Wave" theorist from Georgia drew wide attention for his market forecasts. There he was on the cover of Barron's: "3600 on the Dow? That, Says Bob Prechter, Is Where We're Going." It was a bold prediction at a time when the Dow industrial average was barely at 2000.

Unfortunately, the Dow never got within 800 points of the target before the market crashed in October. To compound things, Mr. Prechter then turned into a superbear, causing his followers to miss rally after rally in subsequent years. The result: Mr. Prechter went from stock-market hero to punchline of in-crowd jokes. [William Power, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," The Wall Street Journal, 19 August 1993]

the upshot was that Prechter cost his subscribers a lot of money if they religiously followed his forecasts. fortunately, i was not one of them. his global forecasting company still does a brisk business today because a lot of the institutional heavyweights still remember his "right" call. the predictor guys are ok for getting trading and investing ideas, but still that's no substitute for thinking for one's self and not blindly following said zealots like lemmings over the cliff...

[hairmetal4ever]

Originally Posted by CareFreeAZ

Those are great points as most of us in the general population always tend to forget about all the plastic's (toys,parts/components,beverage containers etc.) are made from petroleum. And Diesel fuel is a much better indicator of what drives the goods and services industry.

That said, regarding the whole suburbia issue, I'll be the first to bring up two newsworthy television items I saw. Migration/relocation of United States Residents(Basically people moving to the Western and Southern United States) is at it's highest. The Airlines, despite rising fuel costs, had set an all time high in terms of number of passengers flying. With migration, not everyone can live in the "defined central core" of every city. Hence, suburbia will always exist.

Nor do all people WANT to live in the central core. Crowds, traffic, no yards, nowhere to spread out...give me exurbia any day.

[multitrak]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Silly, irrational fears abound. Always have. Trust your gut.

and THINK for yourself. y2k was the biggest scam foisted upon the global public and the largest non-event ever. my only concern at the time was with patching my trading software, and after that was done, i had a beer and hit the sack while the rest of the world partied and worried. remember the threats and fears of rioting over anticipated nondelivery of welfare checks? i remember something similar in the late 60's then called "helter skelter" (courtesy of charlie manson). the more things change, the more they stay the same...