Some interesting predictions for 2008 (environment, work, house)

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by multitrak

...Prechter then turned into a superbear, causing his followers to miss rally after rally ...

Stock market bears have "correctly" predicted 11 of the past 2 recessions....

[CosmicWizard]

multitrak wrote:

and THINK for yourself

You are quite the contrarian. What a concept. The overpaid experts won't like it though. It's bad for business!

[brightdoglover]

Two economists fall into a 20-foot-deep hole. One of them says, "We'll never be able to get out of here." The other one says, "Sure we can. First, we assume a ladder..."

[runninfiend]

The second is from the very politcally incorrect website of writer James Howard Kunstler ( James Howard Kunstler ), upon which he has posted his (very dire) predictions for 2008.

Kunstler wrote the pioneering book "The Geography of Nowhere," and was an early proponent of New Urbanism. I agree with many of his philosophies and I hope his predictions are correct. We as a nation do need to reign in our wanton sprawl ethic and begin a path to sustainable growth.

However, I personally don't see that happening anytime soon, despite the current market downturn. Peak oil is still off in the distance, and people sure seem willing to pay whatever it takes to feed those oversized SUV's.

[Shuffler]

Great Kunstler diatribe on "Localism" today...as usual, he's pretty much dead-on

[JMadison]

Just a thought. Wouldn't one answer be to decentralize work? Rather than urbanizing everything to city level populiation densities, why no intersperse work space with living space?

I used to drive into Tampa when I worked for GTE and see all the skyscrapers and the traffic jam caused by the converging inroads and think... there's no reason in this day and age to cluster all the buildings in one place... spread them out and the congestion goes away.

And possibly commute times could be reduced if in essence, the work place was moved closer to home.

So instead of concentrating everyone in urban, dense condo sized dwelling in the city... why not go the other route... disperse the work spaces into the communities.

OK, granted, that may not be a good idea for oil refineries and other heavy and essentially dirty industries. But for everything else, should work. I mean, consider that most skyscrapers and cities are filled with office space, not manufacturing space.

Just to me personally, urban living densities are undesirable. (I know others herein feel differently) But with different planning, seems to me we could have our "drive 'till you qualify" jumbo houses with a little ground around them, and still get rid of the drive.

Consider for example, the location of Florida Power and Light's HQ in Juno Beach Florida. It is nicely landscaped and about 2 blocks from the ocean in a residential area. Not the least bit of an eyesore and if you worked there and lived in Juno Beach you could walk to work every day. (Have always wished I could get that deal, LOL!)

Anyway, I've seen it in places, it already exists, as the above example. So it can be done, and you don't have to give up the 3/2 single family home either.

[themaster]

Peak Oil is BS! That's all I have to say about it.. (and no I'm not offering facts.. not that peak oil scaremongers have any)

It's the same thing.. if your not selling terror? Your selling peak oil.. or how about the enviroment?

Anything to scare you masses.. here's my favorite line..
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by themaster

Peak Oil is BS! That's all I have to say about it.. (and no I'm not offering facts.. not that peak oil scaremongers have any)

It's the same thing.. if your not selling terror? Your selling peak oil.. or how about the enviroment?

Anything to scare you masses.. here's my favorite line..
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

Believe what you want, I guess. I first heard about the "peak oil theory" in 1968--from a family acquaintance who was one of the top petroleum geologists in the field. I remember him saying that US oil production in the lower 48 states would peak within 3-4 years and that world production would peak somewhere between 2000 and 2010. Now, for a high-school kid like me that all sounded like gibberish--at that age we all think that we, and our world, is invincible. Well, oil production did peak in the US--in 1970 in the lower 48. The North Slope fields in Alaska, barely even discovered in 1968, were developed in the 1970's AND peaked in production by 1989--just over 20 years after large-scale production commenced.

By many experts' estimates--including a number of them in the petroleum industry itself--worldwide peak oil production may be here already. If not, it's probably not far off. As for the BS statement that the peak oil "scaremongers" have no facts, one need only read some of the many papers presented by Matthew Simmons--probably the leading investment banker to the petroleum industry. His works contain boatloads of statistics and facts that support the contention that peak oil is here or will be soon.

Go here and read for yourself: Welcome to Simmons & Company International

Once upon a time, there were a lot of people who fervently held on to the belief that the world was flat, even with a mountain of evidence that it wasn't. They couldn't accept that their long-held belief was wrong. The people who don't think that peak oil is real are just the latest "flat-earth" believers who refuse to accept an apparent reality.

[Bagz]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Once upon a time, there were a lot of people who fervently held on to the belief that the world was flat, even with a mountain of evidence that it wasn't. They couldn't accept that their long-held belief was wrong. The people who don't think that peak oil is real are just the latest "flat-earth" believers who refuse to accept an apparent reality.

Now I didn't live in those days but the more things change the more they stay the same. I imagine the flat earth proponents were the negative anti-progress folks saying "don't go sailing too far cause you will fall off the edge and die" while the people looking at the obvious facts were saying "I'm gonna find a short cut to India and get rich" There were probably reasonable people on both sides, but the optimists eventually proved right.

Worst case scenerio... we run out of oil and the environmentalists and fear mongers are forced to allow nuclear, wind and hydro electric construction and the economy goes through tremendous growth as the nation switches over.

The peak oil debate reminds me more of the Armageddon debate than the flat-earth debate... unless you look at it from the standpoint that the proponents of the peak-oil fear-monger theory are analogous the proponents of the flat-earth fear-monger theory.

Future's so bright

[steveco.]

Originally Posted by JMadison

Just a thought. Wouldn't one answer be to decentralize work? Rather than urbanizing everything to city level populiation densities, why no intersperse work space with living space?

I used to drive into Tampa when I worked for GTE and see all the skyscrapers and the traffic jam caused by the converging inroads and think... there's no reason in this day and age to cluster all the buildings in one place... spread them out and the congestion goes away.

And possibly commute times could be reduced if in essence, the work place was moved closer to home.

So instead of concentrating everyone in urban, dense condo sized dwelling in the city... why not go the other route... disperse the work spaces into the communities.

OK, granted, that may not be a good idea for oil refineries and other heavy and essentially dirty industries. But for everything else, should work. I mean, consider that most skyscrapers and cities are filled with office space, not manufacturing space.

Just to me personally, urban living densities are undesirable. (I know others herein feel differently) But with different planning, seems to me we could have our "drive 'till you qualify" jumbo houses with a little ground around them, and still get rid of the drive.

Consider for example, the location of Florida Power and Light's HQ in Juno Beach Florida. It is nicely landscaped and about 2 blocks from the ocean in a residential area. Not the least bit of an eyesore and if you worked there and lived in Juno Beach you could walk to work every day. (Have always wished I could get that deal, LOL!)

Anyway, I've seen it in places, it already exists, as the above example. So it can be done, and you don't have to give up the 3/2 single family home either.

That is what we call urban sprawl and it is something that has taken place in every major city in the U.S. for the past 50 years. What was the result? Just look around and see all of the thousands of acres of office parks spread over acre after acre surrounded by track homes and highways. This type of development is extremly outdated as is the old economy based on affordable oil. Now all of these suburban cities that once held such great oppertunities as it becomes less and less affordable to commute to work by car. They are struggling to update and create a new image that seperates them from the rest of the pack putting up Transit Oriented Development or T.O.D.s