Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression

[socalover]

Jazz, earlier this year you said the housing crash was coming Fall, 2008, now a recent post from you state that it's 2009, which is it?

[2bindenver]

Very cool map of metro housing prices:

The Denver Post: Interactive Graphics

[Biopace]

Looks like they updated that map finally (had not been updated since April IIRC).

Speaking of home prices, I was talking to an appraiser last week who's territory is Fort Collins to just north of CO Springs. He claims that the the only two places in the Front Range that have not seen a price decrease in the past 12-18months are Boulder and the Washington Park area of Denver. Though that maps suggests otherwise.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by socalover

Jazz, earlier this year you said the housing crash was coming Fall, 2008, now a recent post from you state that it's 2009, which is it?

Well, that depends on the spot. There are some serious issues developing in the real estate markets in some Colorado locales now. In many, many other areas of the state, sales prices have not declined significantly, but sales volume has dropped to near nothing. That is the classic sign of a market primed for a fall.

Fed intervention has "stuck the finger in the ****" temporarily, but there are bunch of resets coming later this year, and I fully expect the mortgage crisis to spill out of subprime and into the general market. Colorado has had a strong historical tendency to lag national trends by several months, and this may go that way, too. Had the feds not intervened earlier this year, and had they not basically just promised to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we would probably be in full-blown real estate depression already. As far as I am concerned, however, they have only delayed the inevitable--and saddled everybody, including savers and financially responsible people, with a yoke of inflation in commodities and necessities that likely will persist for years.

Remember, I was called "fruitcake" about a year ago on this forum when I predicted that the market wasn't going to just keep going up. I'm sure glad I listened to my own advice then, and eliminated any major exposure to the market. Compared to the "mortgaged-up" masses, I sleep just fine these days. It is just a little unnerving to wait for what is about to happen, though. Like Bugs Bunny said after he sends Elmer Fudd off with the bomb with the lit fuse, "It's the suspense that kills ya." Ka-boom.

[socalover]

How housing rescue bill can help you

The legislation - likely to be enacted soon - devotes $300 billion to helping troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure. See if you qualify.

How the housing rescue bill can help you - Jul. 23, 2008

I just don't understand why they are making taxpayers pay to lower these mortgages to 90% value and not 100% value.

Anyway, this might help save the market...

US housing bill may stem downward spiral: analysts

US housing bill may stem downward spiral: analysts - Yahoo! News

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by socalover

I just don't understand why they are making taxpayers pay to lower these mortgages to 90% value and not 100% value.

How can they make taxpayers bail out private business when they make bad decisions? Send me to the race track and let me bet on the horses. If I bet wrong, have the US taxpayer bail me out. What a huge crime being perpetrated on the american working public! It won't save the housing market anyway, only delay the inevitable a couple of months.

[socalover]

Hope you guys catch the falling knife and buy at the bottom...

[sterlinggirl]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Colorado has had a strong historical tendency to lag national trends by several months, and this may go that way, too. Had the feds not intervened earlier this year, and had they not basically just promised to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we would probably be in full-blown real estate depression already. As far as I am concerned, however, they have only delayed the inevitable--and saddled everybody, including savers and financially responsible people, with a yoke of inflation in commodities and necessities that likely will persist for years.

my $0.02

A lot of places are having a hard time, and a lot of the people in those places want to move to Colorado.

The more everything slowly erodes in their hometowns, the more tempted they will be to move here, even if the job market isn't so great. A lot of cities in the midwest are turning into slums, and people are desperate to escape them while they have a chance. I'd do the same thing if I were in their shoes.

With the government doing its best to cushion the housing crash and to delay the inevitable, they're going to have some extra time to cash out whatever equity they have and move out west. The government is allowing subprime liar loans to continue until late 2009, which will help to prop up the housing market at taxpayer expense for another year.

I think Colorado will get a substantial lag from the rest of the country because of the influx of people moving here, but as a result the front range will be saddled will a lot of people and not enough jobs to support them. Long term, I wouldn't be surprised if Colorado takes years longer to recover than the rest of the country.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by socalover

Jazz, earlier this year you said the housing crash was coming Fall, 2008, now a recent post from you state that it's 2009, which is it?

If you are told that the ship has hit an iceberg and will sink within the hour, but it actually sinks several hours later, is the heads up still not valid?

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by socalover

I just don't understand why they are making taxpayers pay to lower these mortgages to 90% value and not 100% value.

Anyway, this might help save the market...

The bill will probably slow down the rising tide of foreclosures, but there's a lot of sentiment that this bill will cause the long bond to spike up significantly, taking mortgage rates even higher with it. So less people that have loans they can't afford will default, but less people will be able to afford new loans at the same time, which has the same effect as a glut of inventory caused by foreclosures: prices will drop.

Until prices drop to where people can afford the payments without dangling themselves off a financial cliff, the market is going to be in trouble. Regardless of exactly which mechanism or combination of mechanisms does it, real prices must drop in relation to real wages. Until then, we're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

The lowering of principal amount to 90% of current market value in essence leads an anticipated further drop in prices. They don't want the homeower I mean homeowner instantly underwater as soon as they refi under this program. And that hit is taken by the lender...the taxpayer will probably eventually pay, though. Maybe we'll reach a day when bankers have to keep their shades drawn and hide from angry crowds carrying pitchforks and tar. Probably not, but I can still dream...