Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression (Denver: mortgage, credit, loans)

[Mike from back east]

Here's an interesting tidbit from yahoo:

"In the 12 months that ended June 30, nearly 25% of all homes sold nationwide fetched less than sellers originally paid, according to real estate Web site Zillow..... In Merced, Calif., 63% of homes sold during the past 12 months brought in less than what the owner paid. Prices there have fallen 40% over the past 12 months and 56% from their 2006 peak. About 63% of sellers in Stockton, Calif., lost money during the same period, 60% in Modesto, Calif., 55% in Las Vegas and 38% in Phoenix. And the trend has worsened in recent months. In Merced, 74.9% of sellers took a loss when they sold during the three months ended June 30 compared with just 28.7% during the same period in 2007.

The experience of one would-be seller in Cape Coral, Fla., illustrates the kinds of losses sellers are suffering. The homeowner paid $147,000 in 2003 for a three-bed, two-bath ranch. Prices have dropped there more than 22% in the past 12 months. He said he made a 10% downpayment spent big on upgrades, including two renovated baths. The house was appraised at $279,000 two years ago. Two months ago: $140,000. He has been trying to sell it for more than a year and has dropped the price to $129,900."

Full Story Home sellers suffering huge losses: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance


Meanwhile, there's a home down the street from me, sold for $475k two years ago, on the market now for $379k.

s/Mike

[brightdoglover]

How many houses were bought within, say, six years? I thought you were supposed to break even (given closing costs) after about six years, given "normal markets," which I think are about 5% or so a year appreciation.

I hear the mentality all the time. A friend bought a cheap house in Fredericksburg, VA, in 2003 and shortly thereafter, was plotting a return to his beloved California. He said, "We expect to get $300K for the house." I said, "Oh, when are you selling?" He didn't know. Sometime, someday.
I think a lot of people think that way, especially if they come from some place like the Bay area and also don't read the newspaper and business news much.
Another friend was thinking of trying to squeeze into his first condo, and said about interest rates, "I can always refinance later." Yep, interest rates always go down. Another co-worker was nervous about zooming housing interest rates, "They're up to 6%!"
I remember my first amortization book- it went from 8% to 18%. I looked at the *% and sighed, "I'll never see anything close to that low." (1989)
I feel for people who bought and didn't plan to get divorced, laid off, etc. But the mentality of an ever-growing piggy bank, well...

[LBear]

Dropped to $111.00 per barrel! $85 per barrel here we come.
Oil prices hit 3-month low on stronger dollar - Oil & energy - MSNBC.com

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by LBear

Dropped to $111.00 per barrel! $85 per barrel here we come.
Oil prices hit 3-month low on stronger dollar - Oil & energy - MSNBC.com

Let's see--a couple of years ago people were screaming when oil hit $70/bbl. Now we are ecstatic when it "drops" to only 50% more than that. Next thing LBear will be saying is "Isn't it great that gas is down to $3.00/gal.?" For those of us who remember when it was 30¢/gal., $3.00 hardly looks like "the good old days."

Sadly, I think we will look at $3.00 with real nostalgia--probably within a year or so. Of course, if we fall into a severe national depression, gas may get under $3 again, but a lot of out-of-work Americans won't be able to afford it--even it's $2 or less.

[LBear]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Let's see--a couple of years ago people were screaming when oil hit $70/bbl. Now we are ecstatic when it "drops" to only 50% more than that. Next thing LBear will be saying is "Isn't it great that gas is down to $3.00/gal.?" For those of us who remember when it was 30¢/gal., $3.00 hardly looks like "the good old days."

Sadly, I think we will look at $3.00 with real nostalgia--probably within a year or so. Of course, if we fall into a severe national depression, gas may get under $3 again, but a lot of out-of-work Americans won't be able to afford it--even it's $2 or less.

You can't ever just be happy with any good news, can you?

You have to always bring in some gloom. Man, I bet you drive everyone away at socials.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by LBear

You can't ever just be happy with any good news, can you?

You have to always bring in some gloom. Man, I bet you drive everyone away at socials.

When I will be happy about the oil situation is when conservation and lifestyle modification permanently cuts oil demand (and prices) in the US. Until then, the basic underlying problems of excessive imports, spiraling debt, resource depletion, and compromised national security--all very dangerous problems--remain unaddressed.

[CosmicWizard]

Hey Jazz, why make your happiness dependent on something over which you have no control...especially something like the oil consumption habits of others? You've set yourself up to be an unhappy guy for a long, long time. LBear makes a good point, just be happy with any good news. Enjoy it while it lasts, we all know that the lower price of oil is just a temporary blip on the screen. Tomorrow is all but certain to bring forth some gloomy news to be unhappy about it.

[brightdoglover]

I personally don't cheer at a drop of 35 cents a gallon. Gas is still very expensive, and the future supply depends on great buddies like Hugh Chavez, Russia, and the so-progressive state of Saudi Arabia (one of the three states to recognize the Taliban as government, the others being Pakistan and I think Kuwait).
We should be getting out of everyone's pockets *and* living on less, so we don't have to destroy our own country and areas to get out of bed with these regimes.
As usual, it's the less-well-off who suffer first. We pay more at the store, people riot and starve in India.
I worry about the rural and distant areas of this country. I fear for people already living closer to the edges of financial trouble.
Both using less and needing less can only improve things for everyone.

[CosmicWizard]

...the only sure way to generate enough renewable energy to power the Western world is to install wind farms in front of the Senate podium, then focus those giant propellers on the constant stream of hot air spewing forth from the mouths of over-enthusiastic, under-informed politicians who insist on talking about eco-friendly ideas they have no intention of ever voting into law....Mike Adams

Energy Crisis Solved by U.S. Senate (comic)

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

Hey Jazz, why make your happiness dependent on something over which you have no control...especially something like the oil consumption habits of others? You've set yourself up to be an unhappy guy for a long, long time. LBear makes a good point, just be happy with any good news. Enjoy it while it lasts, we all know that the lower price of oil is just a temporary blip on the screen. Tomorrow is all but certain to bring forth some gloomy news to be unhappy about it.

Believe me, I do take some personal solace in paying a little less at the gas pump. Being personally pleased is one thing--still having a realistic view of "the bigger picture" is another. There isn't a day that goes by that I am not personally thankful for what I have and that I can live where I do. I take pleasure and happiness where I find it. Still, I do not let that cloud my view of the serious issues we face (or should I say "should face," instead of hiding behind a patina of denial about them). There is a difference.