Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression (Denver, Colorado Springs: mortgage, environment, credit)

[jazzlover]

I, for one, am a strong believer in Peak Oil, and I think our long-term energy future is pretty bleak, indeed. The immediate issue, though, is--to a lesser extent--demand destruction that is driving prices down. I say "lesser extent" because the concurrent problem is capital starvation that the financial mess is going to cause in the energy industry. Energy and refining stocks have been hammered as hard as anything is the last few days--raising capital in the energy business is no longer going to be "automatic" for awhile. So, I take no comfort in declining energy prices. Those declines are likely to coddle we dumb Americans into thinking that there really is not a very serious long-term energy problem in this country (and the world), while the price declines provide a huge disincentive for the energy companies to do much about it.

As for Colorado, people should keep their eye on the regional producer prices for natural gas. If they sink much below around $5/mcf at the regional hubs (Blanco Basin, Opal, etc.), you will likely see a big slowdown in gas activity--with the attendant "crash" in that part of the Colorado economy, especially around Grand Junction.

[Mike from back east]

I tend to agree with Peak Oil, or at least agree for darned sure that oil is being pumped at a greater rate than replacement supplies are being found. Even given advances in technology for getting more oil out of old wells, and even with opening up new areas to drilling, it is a drop in the bucket of what we burn.

I don't think we should "drill baby drill" to just pump it dry so we can burn it all up in our cars and then be out of oil. Doing so seems extremely disruptive to the need for plastics, chemicals, lubricants and other serious requirements. The most massive use of oil is for motor vehicle FUEL, followed by home heating FUEL. These two forms of usage (BURNING oil as a FUEL) are the ones we should attack asap with electric cars and electric heat pumps, saving oil for those needs where it is most critical. I'd like to have oil in relative abundance for another 1000 years, as it has great versatility far beyond using it frivolously as a fuel source.

I would agree the future for oil supplies is bleak, but the future is rosy for wind, solar, nuclear and other so-called alternative means. I for one wish we'd stop calling them "alternative" energy. That word seems somewhat laden with negative connotations, like the old term "alternative" lifestyle, which still gets snickers from some people. It's time to call all energy sources by their proper names: oil, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, geothermal, tidal, etc.

With the right leadership, policies, incentives and education we can move away from using oil as a fuel and use other energy forms in its place. I see this as a very rosy future relative to keeping OUR money HERE, and putting OUR people to work HERE.

I don't follow nat gas prices, but am aware that the need is strong and will remain such, and if more homes switch from foreign heating oil to domestic nat gas, we will benefit by keeping our money and jobs here.

[sterlinggirl]

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Chevron Corp. and other liquefied natural gas producers may delay committing to new projects because of lower crude oil prices and the difficulty in raising finance, analysts said. The most-expensive projects, such as Woodside's proposed Browse LNG and Chevron's Gorgon off northwest Australia may be worst affected, said Di Brookman, an oil and gas analyst at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney. Most projects not already sanctioned will probably ``slide in time,'' said Stuart Baker, an energy analyst at Morgan Stanley.




Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

[themaster]

Peak oil crazies only prove one thing..

Colorado still has way too many republicans..

I'm going to ask yah a stupid question.. ?? So what if we have hit peak oil?? are the wells gonna run dry.. are we not gonna fix the problem.. are we going to have to go back to steam technology..

You people run around wasting your time.. getting nowhere on nothing.. instead of being *bothered* by the problem.. why don't you put some action into it.. convert your hybrid car into electric using special battery's.. make a electric car or solve the energy problem and become a billionaire.. stupidity is still stupidity wake up and join the future which is going to a beautiful place or create your own hell.. whatever works..

Peak oil or anything that makes people FEARFUL is not just a waste of time.. it's just living in the past.. look outside your window.. does the planet not look fine too you?


I'll give you 1 solution out of a billion that you can waste your time on.. ANY problem we create we can fix...

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by themaster

ANY problem we create we can fix...

if only that was true...

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by themaster

Peak oil crazies only prove one thing..

Colorado still has way too many republicans..

I guess I fail to see how this has anything to do with a political party. Actually, most of the "I'll consume as much as I can afford and to Hell with the rest" crowd that I know are republicans.

People called me crazy, right up to last week, in fact, when I told them they'd see the Dow at 8000 again, too. It's easy to call people with viewpoints you don't agree with "crazies."

As Jazz and I have both suggested, the pullback in oil prices as a result of demand destruction is already breeding the next generation of Hummer owners, who will undoubtably have a very hurt look on their faces when gas prices shoot back up, as I am convinced they will. And the period of these oscillations is likely to decrease markedly.

[sterlinggirl]

Originally Posted by Bob from down south

And the period of these oscillations is likely to decrease markedly.

....and with a smaller period, it would almost make sense to expect a bigger delta between peaks and troughs.

[CosmicWizard]

themaster wrote:

Peak oil crazies only prove one thing..

I haven't encountered any peak oil crazies on this thread, only people who speak knowledgeably about it. Gas prices are a bit lower currently, but not likely to stay that way over the long term. I'm curious, does anyone seriously expect gas prices to stay under $4 gallon for more than a few months perhaps? I see the lower prices as a temporary dip on a generally upward trend.


themaster wrote:

ANY problem we create we can fix...

I'll agree with you on this one.

[EscapeCalifornia]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

themaster wrote:

Peak oil crazies only prove one thing..

I haven't encountered any peak oil crazies on this thread, only people who speak knowledgeably about it. Gas prices are a bit lower currently, but not likely to stay that way over the long term. I'm curious, does anyone seriously expect gas prices to stay under $4 gallon for more than a few month perhaps?

If you've got a crystal ball, I'd like to hire you as my investment adviser. A few months ago, knowledgeable people were predicting $200/barrel oil by this time and thought we'd never see less than $100 again. Bottom line is, no one really knows what the price of oil will be in a year any more than the weather man knows if it'll snow a month from now.

[CosmicWizard]

EscapeCalifornia wrote:

If you've got a crystal ball, I'd like to hire you as my investment adviser.

Only a fool would take anything I post in this thread, as investment advice. I'm well aware that I am just guessing...like everybody else. But you gotta admit that Jazzlover and Bob have made some good guesses so far. Apparently they have some good quality crystal balls.