Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression

[sterlinggirl]

While I was at a gas station today, I noticed a sign near the register saying that the station's gas cards wouldn't work until after the 1st of the year due to 'technical difficulties'.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by NickMan7

Jazz, while everyone is entitled to their views, may I ask what keeps you here? In Colorado? In the U.S.? Is there somewhere you'd rather live? You could be living in Haiti (but then, of course, you most likely wouldn't have internet access - or even 4 walls). You could be living in one of a number of African countries fighting disease outbreaks, malnutrition, severe poverty (almost all of sub-Saharan regions) and rebel extremists (i.e. Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Kenya, etc.). There's always Colombia, Cambodia, Myanmar and pockets of the Middle East you could lay your roots in. Why not? Wait, I know, because eventually the U.S. will resemble those countries and, most likely, even moreso. You'll just live out your life day to day waiting for it to knock on your door, being counterproductive all along the way.

Painting such portraits and pseudo-predicting such events is absurd and accomplishes nothing. I acknowledge that there are problems facing this country. Who doesn't know this? If I felt even remotely the way you felt, I'd be on the next plane out to any one of the aforementioned countries. Not only is the cost of living significantly less, but I wouldn't need to buy winter clothes (which, in and of itself, is counterproductive to the U.S. economy and any other economy, for that matter, because I'm not spending any money), as most of those countries are quite warm year-round. And, as I stated, that's where the U.S. is headed anyway, so why not save a little cash as I prepare myself and my family for war? Let me know if you'd like to join me and I'll book us First Class.

I grew up in the 1950's and 60's in the middle of the "Cold War." I did the "duck and cover" drills and marched to the fallout shelters--those places supposed to be a "safe haven" in a nuclear attack. We know now that such places would have offered scant protection in an attack. Part of the impetus for our now resource and money-sucking Interstate Highway system was to offer a way for people to "escape" cities quickly if a nuclear attack was imminent. We also now know that was a complete joke--people can't pull that trick off in a normal workday commute--never mind in some cluster**** panic that would occur if an attack were at hand. All of that said, those plans, facilities, and strategies were developed by people who hoped and prayed that they never would be needed, but were realistic enough to know that such events were quite plausible--and tried to make some contingency plan for it. One of my relatives spent most of his military career in the higher echelon of the Strategic Air Command (SAC). The stuff he talks about (the stuff that he can talk about now that is no longer considered secret) telling how close we got to WW III on numerous occasions would scare most people to death. So, recognizing the possibility of something really bad happening is, I happen to believe, a logical way of thinking. No, I don't dwell on it every minute, but I don't pretend that the threat is not there.

As to why I don't leave Colorado, that's a fair question. Actually, I'm pretty fortunate. Unlike many, if not most current Coloradans, the house I live in was bought before the crazy explosion in real estate prices occurred. Put simply, it's affordable. I also am in upper management in a specialized career field that is about as unaffected by the speculative economic crap that passes for most of the Colorado economy as a career field can be. I also have a lot of friends, many of them long-time Coloradans who were here long before a lot of this nonsense started here, and who haven't gotten caught up in all the speculation and other financial mischief that his hammering a lot of other people. All of that said, that doesn't shield me (or anyone else here) from what could happen if our economic debacle becomes dire enough to seriously compromise the social fabric of the place, and destructive enough to tear up our governmental and business institutions. If that were to happen, I'm not sure there is a safe haven. Finally, thankfully, my work no longer requires me (as it once did) to spend considerable time in the metroplex ****hole that is the Front Range. I go there now as infrequently and for as short a time as is required to do my business there.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

Bideshi wrote:

Jazz has only stated the truth. Why condemn him for that?

Would you be kind enough to quote the remarks that you consider to be condemnation? I will acknowledge my criticism and judgement, but in no way am I condemning, nor have I read any remarks from anyone else that seems like condemnation.

An admittedly poor choice of words on my part. Replace "condemn" with "criticize".

[CosmicWizard]

jazzlover wrote:

I grew up in the 1950's and 60's in the middle of the "Cold War." I did the "duck and cover" drills and marched to the fallout shelters--those places supposed to be a "safe haven" in a nuclear attack. We know now that such places would have offered scant protection in an attack.

Are you saying that ducking under the desk in the classroom wouldn't have saved us from a commie nuclear attack after all? And all these years, I've felt so secure because I was under the impression that all I had to do was duck under my desk if the commies attacked. My security has been shattered.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

I was under the impression that all I had to do was duck under my desk if the commies attacked. My security has been shattered.

No worries; now we have duct tape..

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

When our 30-year drunken binge in America of financing consumption with debt we can not hope to repay grinds to its inevitable hault, probably within the next year (I think that process has already begun in earnest), a good chunk of the world economy that has depended upon Americans going into hock to buy their products is going to collapse, as well. That is going to foster unbridled comtempt and hate for America in the rest of the world--especially when those countries who have been exporting to us most enthusiastically figure out that they have been trading tangible goods and services for ever-more-worthless dollars. That is the kind of **** that starts World Wars. Not if, but when World War III commences, the US is likely to be on the losing end--unless it is willing to use its still-huge nuclear arsenal to make glass out of a good chunk of its adversaries' cities and countryside. Now, if that happens, there will be retaliation. Many newcomers--and even many Coloradans--don't realize that military installations in Cheyenne, Wyoming (only 12 miles from the Colorado border), and Colorado Springs control much of the US nuclear arsenal. They also think that all of those old missile silos dotting the plains along the Front Range eastward for a couple of hundred miles--from Montana and North Dakota southward through Colorado--are empty and abandoned relics. They are not. They also don't think about the fact that Denver has one of the highest concentrations of Federal government offices outside of Washington, D.C. So, in an all-out World War, there is no doubt that most of the Rocky Mountain West east of the Continental Divide--and Colorado's Front Range, in particular--would be one of the highest priority strategic military targets, probably only second to Washington D.C. How likely is such an event? I fully expect to see World War III in my lifetime. Whether it escalates to the use of nuclear weapons is a matter of conjecture, but given the current strategic landscape, I consider it a strong possibility. Welcome to Ground Zero . . .

I tend to doubt that the world is headed for unrestricted nuclear war, but the likelihood of a mushroom cloud in the mideast or SW Asia is high enough to be considered nontrivial.

But Jazz' point is well taken...the sort of economic calamity that is really just getting rolling now has been the driving force behind many a large war, including both World Wars fought in the last century.

Now we have billions of Chinese, who have just started to taste a little prosperity, facing a worldwide collapse in demand for their products, and that is a potential social calamity that must be keeping their masters in Beijing up at night. As Richard Pryor used to say..."never **** with a billion of anything."

I was watching the Robber Barons of Detroit grovelling for another 25,000 million dollars in government money this morning...and I am ever more convinced after watching the display of gross fiscal ineptitude interwoven with political grandstanding that an economic depression in the US is a near certainty now. The Fed reported in Dec 07 that the average length of a new car loan had reached 5 years 4 months, and that 45% of all new car loans were for terms over 6 years (i.e. 7+ year terms). It's as obvious to me as the smell of curdled milk that millions of people have not been able to afford Detroit's products for years now. The absence of 7 and 8 year loans with increasing amounts of debt rolled from one underwater depreciating vehicle to the next means that artificial and debt-fueled consumption is history. Consequently, the auto industry will be losing hundreds of thousands of jobs no matter how much borrowed government money we insanely opt to throw at it before the game is lost in Sudden Debt overtime. The Detroit business model has failed miserably.

And, as the old saw goes, "as goes GM, so goes the US."

Unless we wake up. I'm really not very optimistic that we will.

Debt is deadly

[Shuffler]

On a happier note, I've scrapped my plans to leave CO for Maine in the midst of an economic meltdown. Better to stay put in my affordable 1200sq ft house in the middle of town than deal with this housing market. My girlfriend is moving back here to live with me, and I like to think her job is more 'recession proof' than mine.

My days of being employed could be numbered. If I stop paying my mortgage, will the Wells Fargo goons come and kick me out of my house? Or do I stand on the porch, bent over and grabbing my ankles, while I wait for another bailout after our tax & spend Prez 'spreads some wealth around'...

The prairie dogs are making a comeback here at the company campus. Didn't take them long. I wonder if they are good eating...they are certainly plump, grass-fed little critters.

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by Shuffler

On a happier note, I've scrapped my plans to leave CO for Maine in the midst of an economic meltdown. Better to stay put in my affordable 1200sq ft house in the middle of town than deal with this housing market. My girlfriend is moving back here to live with me, and I like to think her job is more 'recession proof' than mine.

My days of being employed could be numbered. If I stop paying my mortgage, will the Wells Fargo goons come and kick me out of my house? Or do I stand on the porch, bent over and grabbing my ankles, while I wait for another bailout after our tax & spend Prez 'spreads some wealth around'...

The prairie dogs are making a comeback here at the company campus. Didn't take them long. I wonder if they are good eating...they are certainly plump, grass-fed little critters.

Well, here's to hoping that you can keep your job.

Is there a plan B? I always have a plan B. And usually a Plan C, D, and E, too. If any of those plans seriously include waiting for the next administration to help, I recommend moving that to the bottom of the list next to "Win the Lotto" and "Be discovered by Star Search." And there's nothing wrong with looking around to make a career change preemptively to something more, as you say, "recession proof."

As to prairie dogs, I have two words of advice. "Tobasco Sauce."

[sterlinggirl]

Originally Posted by Bob from down south

As to prairie dogs, I have two words of advice. "Tobasco Sauce."

I didn't even know they liked the stuff....

[CosmicWizard]

WARNING: If you are are addicted to Doom and Gooom, do not read this article. The hint of optimism in it will spoil your day!

Here's a brief quote from an article in Fortune magaizine titled: This crisis could have a happy ending

And there's the rub. I believe that in order for the market to achieve a sustainable advance that is above the mean, we are due for some unforeseen positive event or events. Think about it. In the 1990s stocks went way up because of an unanticipated revolution in technology, i.e., networking and the Internet. In this decade we had a slew of unexpected negative events - bookended by 9/11 and this current meltdown. At some point, and it may be a few years from now, we will likely be subjected to an unforeseen positive.