Quote:
Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim
I think you could make an argument that quality of life has gone down in California and Arizona, for sure. Oil prices will definitely go up, but truthfully, are sunbelt cities, when you look at the metropolitan area as a whole, really any more dependent on oil than cities in other regions? And why would electricity prices go through the roof? Most of the power in SW states comes from hydroelectricity (Hoover Dam, for example), a renewable resource, coal burning power plants, non renewable but there are at least several hundred years worth of coal supplies, or even nuclear power plants (such as the Palo Verde reactor west of Phoenix). We haven't even mentioned solar power-- a huge potential in one of the sunniest areas of the world. I don't see why air conditioning would become unaffordable out here.
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Hydro power supplies a smaller and smaller percentage of power in the Southwest. Outside of California in the Soutwest, coal-fired plants supply the majority of power now. The cost of coal for power generation is going to skyrocket. There is plenty of coal in the ground to be sure, but mining costs are going to increase (I am very familiar with coal mining--you would be amazed how much diesel fuel and electricity it takes to mine coal). Transportation is another huge cost--in many cases transporting the coal to the plant costs far more than the coal itself. The biggest cost to transport the fuel--yup, you guessed it--diesel fuel.
In California, they can't even use coal under that state's current environmental laws. They are firing their power plants with natural gas. California has enjoyed pretty reasonable natural gas costs in the last few years because their primary source of natural gas--the Rocky Mountain region--has lacked sufficient pipeline capacity to ship what it can produce. With new pipelines coming on line to the Midwest and East from the Rockies, that is going to change.
Solar technology has a LONG ways to go (if it ever gets there) to be able to supply any significant amount of electricity. One of its major current pitfalls is that the collectors must currently be manufactured with a good deal of relatively exotic metals and other substances--many of which are pretty scarce worldwide, and many not produced in any significant quantity in the US.
People keep pining for easy ways out of this mess without making some sacrifice as to where and how they live. We have long passed the point of having that luxury. We are going to have to learn to live in much more austere circumstances than we do now, or face the prospect of quite a few of us not being able to live at all. The days of a free lunch are over.
In answer to those who say my view is negative, I truly want a bright future for the this region, this country, and for those who follow us. However, my belief is that our current behavior and "I want it all and I want it now" attitude is going to dash that wish for all of us--especially those yet unborn who have no protection from our folly.
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02-10-2008, 07:30 PM
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