Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression (Delta, Keystone: mortgage, travel, work)

[tfox]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

No amount of realtor "spin" can paper over the fact that Colorado's economy and employment has largely been propped up by real estate speculation and the construction associated with it, unsustainable development, and imprudent lending--all of it based in part on the availability of cheap credit and cheap energy. The impending end of all of that will send the Colorado economy, employment, and real estate markets crashing back down to reality from their current vaporous heights. Better be checking your parachute . . .

Does anyone know how many Metro area jobs are related to the residential new-construction industry, including new-home builders, subcontractors, developers, and realtors? I agree with JL that these jobs are likely going away for a while. My question is exactly how many jobs is this? To what extent is the "sprawl" industry a major portion of Metro employment? And of those jobs, how many of those companies can successfully diversify into the more stable office, commercial, industrial, and public works construction industries?

My guess is that if residential construction were to say, completely disappear for 5 years or so, that it would be a hit to the metro economy, but not a fatal blow, given relative strengths in other industries like energy. But, it'd be nice to see some objective numbers to quantify what kind of impact that would have on the overall economy.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by tfox

Does anyone know how many Metro area jobs are related to the residential new-construction industry, including new-home builders, subcontractors, developers, and realtors? I agree with JL that these jobs are likely going away for a while. My question is exactly how many jobs is this? To what extent is the "sprawl" industry a major portion of Metro employment? And of those jobs, how many of those companies can successfully diversify into the more stable office, commercial, industrial, and public works construction industries?

According to the 2002 US Economic Census, Real Estate an Construction industries directly employed 12.2% of Colorado workers and accounted for 12.7% of Colorado salaries paid. If anything, those percentages have likely grown substantially since the 2002 report. That doesn't sound like that much, but it DOES NOT count all of the associated jobs in finance, wholesaling, services, transportation, utilities, manufacturing, government, etc. that are directly and indirectly related to construction and development. Adding those in would send the percentage up to something close to 20-30% or more, at least, in my opinion.

I also think that it is a grave mistake to assume that commercial, industrial, public works, and office construction is "more stable" than residential. Commercial construction is strictly tied to the health of the overall local economy, and will falter if that economy sours. When the Colorado economy tanked in the early 1980's, the commercial real estate market nearly died. Industrial construction is dependent on their being a demand for the products that would be produced from the facility. Public works projects are predicated on funding (tax revenues and bonding ability) of public entities being available--a dicey proposition in a declining economic environment. No doubt, energy development will prop up construction in that sector, but--as I have said before--it can't and won't carry the whole construction economy on its back alone.

Colorado and the rest of the United States desperately needs a severe correction and reallocation of resources away from unsustainable speculation and development, but it will decimate a lot of businesses and destroy the livelihoods of thousands and thousands of people reliant on those industries. That is the unfortunate outcome of many years of misinvestment, encouraged by failed government policies and unfettered speculation.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

No amount of realtor "spin" can paper over the fact . . .

In any case, there'll be a lot less realtors to do the spinning soon enough.

[sterlinggirl]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

According to the 2002 US Economic Census, Real Estate an Construction industries directly employed 12.2% of Colorado workers and accounted for 12.7% of Colorado salaries paid. If anything, those percentages have likely grown substantially since the 2002 report. That doesn't sound like that much, but it DOES NOT count all of the associated jobs in finance, wholesaling, services, transportation, utilities, manufacturing, government, etc. that are directly and indirectly related to construction and development. Adding those in would send the percentage up to something close to 20-30% or more, at least, in my opinion.

Here's an interesting article on the effects of the housing slowdown on illegal aliens in the Miami area. I'd imagine the same thing is happening to a lesser extent here.

HeraldTribune.com - Business - Business news stories about Sarasota, Manatee and Charlotte counties in Florida. - HeraldTribune.com

[sterlinggirl]

Today's rate for a 6 Billion dollar loan? 8.4%

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by sterlinggirl

Today's rate for a 6 Billion dollar loan? 8.4%

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

I'll give you 9%! When can you arrange for delivery?

[2bindenver]

Foreclosure help not always sought, an article from The Denver Post, reports that the Colorado Housing and Finance Authority looked at areas where residents were calling in to the Colorado Foreclosure Hotline and areas with high foreclosures between Nov. 27 and April 4. Of the 11,633 foreclosures started in that time frame on $2.2 billion worth of loans, the CHFA found seven ZIP codes where people were not seeking help. Included in that list is 80010, the Fitzsimons area of Aurora; 80017, the Buckley area of Aurora; 80916, Peterson Air Force Base near Colorado Springs; 80204, the Invesco Field area of Denver; 80239, the Montbello area of Denver; 80631, north Greeley; and 80134 in Parker. According to CHFA spokeswoman Jerilynn Martinez, Gov. Bill Ritter will be featured on postcards sent out, to distinguish them from the flood of solicitations sent to people in foreclosure. On Monday, Gov. Ritter declared this week "Foreclosure Prevention Awareness Week" to promote awareness of the foreclosure hotline.
Foreclosure help not always sought - The Denver Post

[tfox]

Originally Posted by 2bindenver

Foreclosure help not always sought, an article from The Denver Post, reports that the Colorado Housing and Finance Authority looked at areas where residents were calling in to the Colorado Foreclosure Hotline and areas with high foreclosures between Nov. 27 and April 4. Of the 11,633 foreclosures started in that time frame on $2.2 billion worth of loans, the CHFA found seven ZIP codes where people were not seeking help. Included in that list is 80010, the Fitzsimons area of Aurora; 80017, the Buckley area of Aurora; 80916, Peterson Air Force Base near Colorado Springs; 80204, the Invesco Field area of Denver; 80239, the Montbello area of Denver; 80631, north Greeley; and 80134 in Parker. According to CHFA spokeswoman Jerilynn Martinez, Gov. Bill Ritter will be featured on postcards sent out, to distinguish them from the flood of solicitations sent to people in foreclosure. On Monday, Gov. Ritter declared this week "Foreclosure Prevention Awareness Week" to promote awareness of the foreclosure hotline.
Foreclosure help not always sought - The Denver Post

Sad, but it does always seem that those who most urgently need the help are the last ones to seek it out.

[Bob from down south]

the CHFA found seven ZIP codes where people were not seeking help. Included in that list is ... 80916, Peterson Air Force Base near Colorado Springs;...

Ummmm, is it really news that there are no foreclosure notices going out on Peterson AFB? I think it'd be news if there were. The base comprises all of the 80916 zip code.

Oil is at $120 a barrel now. That's almost $2.20 a gallon...for unprocessed crude. And yet there are still media brain donors telling a public in denial that this won't necessarily translate into higher prices at the pump. I'm thinking more like $5 a gallon by end of summer. And major increases for pesticides, plastics, lubricants, fertilizer etc.--and everything that needs them for production.

I've got several friends that are pilots at United Airlines. They're still talking about getting back the wage concessions they agreed to after 9/11. UAL lost nearly $6 million a day, every day, for all of Q1 2008. They should be thinking about the next batch of concessions, not how much they're gonna get back. And wait until the fuel prices finally start bleeding through into much higher fares...we're going to see how elastic demand for discretionary travel really is.

I just don't see how we avoid rapid and radical changes in how we live, work, and play.

[CosmicWizard]

Bob from down south wrote:

I just don't see how we avoid rapid and radical changes in how we live, work, and play.

Some of these radical changes will actually make our lives simpler, less scattered, and more focused. Here is a paragraph from a light hearted look at the recession.

Personally, I'm happier when my options are limited. I like knowing that I can't afford to move and I can't afford to quit my job and I can't afford to think about the boundless possibilities that the universe has to offer, I can only afford to clean my own stupid house and eat leftovers and lose weight so the sh*tty clothes I already have don't look even worse on me than they would otherwise. Under the duress of an economic meltdown, I have to learn to bake bread and grow tomatoes and hit up my friends for hand-me-downs for my kids.

If you want to read the entire article Click here.