Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression (Vail: equity, property taxes, transplants)

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

Not EVERYONE thinks like that. Many people have made B-I-G $$$ by viewing home ownership as an investment, and others are getting burned....similar to most other investments. I'm guessing that both Bob and Jazz missed out on the opportunity to make money via home ownership so they blame anyone who did as players inducing the real estate bubble. Anyone can play the blame game, but that does nothing to resolve the issue.

No, what "opportunities" I missed, I avoided intentionally. I'm a low-risk, "get rich slow" saver and investor. I also note that many people have also won B-I-G $$$ at the craps tables in Vegas, too. I do not recommend betting on the come at the craps table as a financial strategy, as many more people have left their money to the casinos than have won. Take a look around at the lights and the glitz the next time you visit the Las Vegas strip. None of that was built by winners. Take a look around at the long row of "For Sale" signs in many distressed neighborhoods in America today. None of that was built by winners, either.

Note also that early participants in any Ponzi pyramid scheme do make money. That's the bait that draws the rest of the suckers in. But the losers always far outnumber the winners in the end. The big winners in the housing Ponzi pyramid have already cashed out and taken their winnings. Very many of those still holding houses bought in 2005 and later are going to end up as the end-stage bagholders in many markets.

I'm watching the banking sector closely now. The cumulative impacts of the billions and billions of dollars in losses are eating away at the banks' foundations more every day. I spent some time looking at the recent failure of ANB Bank in Bentonville AR (home of Walmart) over the weekend. That bank's balance sheet went massively negative in just a quarter's time as the result of major losses in C&D loans. Anyone here think they're unique in their risk profile? Net result was a punishing $214 million hit to the FDIC's reserves. More failures are coming. Maybe many more. In 1989 we had over 500 banks fail in the S&L crisis. Given the total amount of losses in the mortgage space already realized plus those that are virtually certain to come, I think we could see a replay, with real losses much larger than the S&L disaster. Sheila Bair, the FDIC chairman, appears very worried, and for good reason.

[CosmicWizard]

jazzlover wrote:

Bad guess. I came out whole in the real estate market BEFORE the wheels started falling off. I followed my my own advice. That said, I didn't, and don't, consider my home as a speculative investment. It's a place to live.

Can't guess right all the time!

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

jazzlover wrote:

Bad guess. I came out whole in the real estate market BEFORE the wheels started falling off. I followed my my own advice. That said, I didn't, and don't, consider my home as a speculative investment. It's a place to live.

Can't guess right all the time!

Dude, it wasn't guessing!

Merriam-Webster:
guess: to form an opinion of from little or no evidence

There was plenty of evidence out there that things were going to start going sour--if one examined the data with a scintilla of objectivity. The luck part for me was that I was ready to "cash out" right at that moment. Which I did.

[CosmicWizard]

Jazz

I'm not saying that you were guessing. I am the one who guessed wrong about you. As the dictionary says, I formed my opinion with little evidence. That's why I emphasized the word guessing in post #710. In #712, I could have clearly stated that I can't guess right all the time. I apologize for the confusion.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

Jazz

I'm not saying that you were guessing. I am the one who guessed wrong about you. As the dictionary says, I formed my opinion with little evidence. That's why I emphasized the word guessing in post #710. In #712, I could have clearly stated that I can't guess right all the time. I apologize for the confusion.

No problem. I see what you meant now, too. Yes, I have guessed wrong, too--I have some big scars back in a certain posterior region to prove it.

By the way, it seems that you, Bob, and I are having more fun with this thread than anybody. I think it's approaching some kind of record for replies. Maybe the three of us should get some kind of city-data award for the most pontificating in one spot.

Though words ending in "ate" often have a bad connotation. Reminds me of this old INXS tune:

YouTube - Mediate INXS

[formercalifornian]

Jazzlover, I have a personal question for you. Although I've read many of your posts, I am still unclear about where you currently live. Do you own property in Colorado, Wyoming, or both?

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

It's a place to live.

Agreed, except right now it's cheaper to rent.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by formercalifornian

Jazzlover, I have a personal question for you. Although I've read many of your posts, I am still unclear about where you currently live. Do you own property in Colorado, Wyoming, or both?

Currently living in Colorado while I work on a temporary (approximately 1 year) assignment. When that completes, I may or may not stay in Colorado. Because of the nature of my work (yes, it is legal), I won't comment further.

[formercalifornian]

Was I mistaken that you had a connection to Wyoming?

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by formercalifornian

Was I mistaken that you had a connection to Wyoming?

Lived in Wyoming for several great years. I hated to leave there, but I could see that I was going to be working in Colorado for an extended period, so I sold out up there. I was convinced that the area I was in was set for a tumble in real estate, too. It did--after I left.