Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression (housing, oil , invest)

[DOUBLE H]

And a perfect example of that is Telluride. A silver mining camp in the 1870's the town got its name, kind of indirectly, from the weather. Snow storms can be brutal in the San Miguels and the hardscrabble miners who were moving out were warning to the miners moving in "To Hell You Ride"! In the early '60's only a few hundred people lived there. Where hwy 145 shoots on south to Lizard Head Pass and then Cortez, when you went into Telluride itself all the roads in town were gravel roads. Everytime I am watching a program on late night TV, every once in a while I'll see short messages about the energy crisis, and the need to conserve. Anymore, a 10,000 sq.ft. home is small pickings. The new development nearby called Mountain Village, is worse. It's galling to hear the hoity toity people lecture me about conserving, and the 20,000 ft. houses they are building there are owned by the elite where a lot of them may only stay there one month out of the year, some even less. As far as I'm concerned, living here year round is part of the deal. Just my 2 cents worth and I am prepared for the oncoming flak from the posters.

[Sockeye]

Gotta give you props, Double H. What's happened to Telluride is sadly also happening to Ouray and Durango. Superficially, all appear as charming western towns. When you dig deeper, you discover that no one there is from there anymore, and it just reeks of $$ and ostentaciousness. Like what happened to many of the old timers in Aspen, the old timers @ Telluride were, because of sky high property taxes, forced to move out.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by DOUBLE H

And a perfect example of that is Telluride. A silver mining camp in the 1870's the town got its name, kind of indirectly, from the weather. Snow storms can be brutal in the San Miguels and the hardscrabble miners who were moving out were warning to the miners moving in "To Hell You Ride"! In the early '60's only a few hundred people lived there. Where hwy 145 shoots on south to Lizard Head Pass and then Cortez, when you went into Telluride itself all the roads in town were gravel roads. Everytime I am watching a program on late night TV, every once in a while I'll see short messages about the energy crisis, and the need to conserve. Anymore, a 10,000 sq.ft. home is small pickings. The new development nearby called Mountain Village, is worse. It's galling to hear the hoity toity people lecture me about conserving, and the 20,000 ft. houses they are building there are owned by the elite where a lot of them may only stay there one month out of the year, some even less. As far as I'm concerned, living here year round is part of the deal. Just my 2 cents worth and I am prepared for the oncoming flak from the posters.

I there ever was an example of hedonism, greed, and self-aggrandizement personified in a place, Telluride is it. What is totally disgusting, as you note, is that some of the very people who are the "hoity toity" there have the huevos to spout their pseudo-environmentalist horse**** when THEY are the problem. If they were all run out of there, and the mine and mill reopened, Telluride would be a much better place. It sure was before the "beautiful people" showed up--and I remember it that way because I was there before they did show up!

[Sockeye]

The owners of The Red Lady mine in Crested Butte are seriously considering resuming operations there. Imagine the main drag if that happens - miners in coveralls and hard hats carrying lunch pails walking alongside bejewelled trustafarians. Hardworking men at the brewpub talking about matters other than what 14'r they climbed, or how many trout they landed on a guided fishing trip. After a few months of this, the elitist town council would unanimously agree to move their man camp down valley to Gunnison.

[Jerkstore]

Originally Posted by DOUBLE H

And a perfect example of that is Telluride. A silver mining camp in the 1870's the town got its name, kind of indirectly, from the weather. Snow storms can be brutal in the San Miguels and the hardscrabble miners who were moving out were warning to the miners moving in "To Hell You Ride"! In the early '60's only a few hundred people lived there. Where hwy 145 shoots on south to Lizard Head Pass and then Cortez, when you went into Telluride itself all the roads in town were gravel roads. Everytime I am watching a program on late night TV, every once in a while I'll see short messages about the energy crisis, and the need to conserve. Anymore, a 10,000 sq.ft. home is small pickings. The new development nearby called Mountain Village, is worse. It's galling to hear the hoity toity people lecture me about conserving, and the 20,000 ft. houses they are building there are owned by the elite where a lot of them may only stay there one month out of the year, some even less. As far as I'm concerned, living here year round is part of the deal. Just my 2 cents worth and I am prepared for the oncoming flak from the posters.

Telluride is a freakin' dork show. Megalomania at it's finest. When we roll through on the Colorado 500 each year, folks scowl and turn their noses up. We don't stop in town and spend money there any more, and I gave up their annual mtb races because the whole town just feels phony.

[Bob from down south]

California exceeded 1,000 foreclosure sales every business day of April. And over 97% of those went back to the bank unsold. I think the equity locust hatch is kinda lean there right now, except maybe a few of the "old growth" variety.

Schwarzenegger now wants to borrow against future lotto earnings to pay down the $20B state budget deficit stacking up in the current year. Which makes me wonder what his plan is for next year, and the year after...

Anecdotal evidence on the Colorado Springs $350K+ market space is still pointing to a market on life support. A steady trickle of price cuts is slightly picking up pace across the field, but most are the $5-10K variety on properties that wouldn't move at prices $50K lower right now.

I suspect some of the larger rural houses that use propane for heat are going to have an extra special hard time selling now with the price spikes in propane. A 4,000 sq ft house heated by propane will burn in the neighborhood of 2000 gal a year. At $3/gal, that's $6000 a year...and a painful $1,500 lump sum payment to fill a 500 gal residential tank. No evidence anywhere that prices are going to moderate, as propane generally tracks with fuel oil prices. Add that to $4 gas to drive the 10-15 miles each way into town to work, and it starts looking less than attractive...

Now how does this not go badly over the next few years?

[Shuffler]

Originally Posted by Bob from down south

Now how does this not go badly over the next few years?

Easy - wishful thinking, a la the status quo. Where'd that 'Future's Soooo Bright' guy disappear to, anyway?!

I noted natural gas up 55% YTD in today's paper.

Funny to think of all the talk around 'peak oil', but nobody's talking 'peak natural gas' on a broad scale, and how that will impact housing...

[sterlinggirl]

I noticed that too Shuffler. The price of heating oil is also way up after they started trading it in the futures market this spring.

If you don't have a wood stove, this summer would be a good time to put one in.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by sterlinggirl

I noticed that too Shuffler. The price of heating oil is also way up after they started trading it in the futures market this spring.

If you don't have a wood stove, this summer would be a good time to put one in.

Actually, because of the shortage of pipeline capacity needed to export Rocky Mountain-produced natural gas--a constraint in capacity now ending--Colorado retail natural gas users have not "enjoyed" the full impact of natural gas price increases that have already occurred in other parts of the country. Next winter is when we will catch up with the rest of the country in retail natural gas prices. Then, there is also the prediction of a significant shortfall in natural gas supplies possible for next winter on the national level. When the retail natural gas prices reflect the convergence of those two events here in Colorado, I think you can kiss the McMansion lifestyle goodbye here for at least the middle and upper middle class--and the next leg of the real estate crash in Colorado residential property will ensue.

The wood stove scenario sounds nice, and might work for a few people, but most live far enough from the wood sources that just paying for the fuel to transport the wood may make it pretty impractical. On the positive side, there will be plenty of beetle-killed lodgepole to cut down--if it hasn't already burned.

[Shuffler]

Originally Posted by sterlinggirl

I noticed that too Shuffler. The price of heating oil is also way up after they started trading it in the futures market this spring.

If you don't have a wood stove, this summer would be a good time to put one in.

I have one in the basement, but it's a piece of junk and just smokes up the house and doesn't have a blower to move the heat around...it was there when I bought my house. Wood is expensive too, whether it's bought or if I'm paying for gas to drive somewhere and cut it myself.

I'd considered a corn stove but I have a hard time getting my arms around the idea of using food to heat my house...I can just as easily sit around and fart after too much meat and beer...