Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression (Denver, Arvada: mortgage, bad credit, loans)

[FromMilanoItaly]

Dear Jazzlover, I'm have no words to express my gratitude to all the guys who gave suggestions about my August vacation through Colorado.
I like visiting this forum not only because of my summer holidays, but also because I love America.
My graduation thesis was about American civil procedure. Every day I watch Fox News (not very unbiased, is it?) and I like reading books about American history.
You're right: due to current exchange rate my vacation will be cheaper than it was in 2001, when I travelled through Arizona and Utah.
A night at the Hilton in Miami will cost less than a night in a bad two star hotel in Italy (Venice, Florence, Rome).
The strange side of the question is that in Italy we are having bad days now. Economy is down and the increase of food prices is going to ruin thousands of families (not only blue collar, but also white collars families).
As to gasoline, it is more than 8 dollars a gallon.
Fortunately, we have not suffered a lot of mortgages yet, maybe as Italy is not an "easy credit" country and our economy is less risk oriented.
I think that the heart of the matter is that ten years ago nobody told us that globalization would be a big deal for China and India, not for USA and Europe.
No free lunch...

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by FromMilanoItaly

Dear Jazzlover, I'm have no words to express my gratitude to all the guys who gave suggestions about my August vacation through Colorado.
I like visiting this forum not only because of my summer holidays, but also because I love America.
My graduation thesis was about American civil procedure. Every day I watch Fox News (not very unbiased, is it?) and I like reading books about American history.
You're right: due to current exchange rate my vacation will be cheaper than it was in 2001, when I travelled through Arizona and Utah.
A night at the Hilton in Miami will cost less than a night in a bad two star hotel in Italy (Venice, Florence, Rome).
The strange side of the question is that in Italy we are having bad days now. Economy is down and the increase of food prices is going to ruin thousands of families (not only blue collar, but also white collars families).
As to gasoline, it is more than 8 dollars a gallon.
Fortunately, we have not suffered a lot of mortgages yet, maybe as Italy is not an "easy credit" country and our economy is less risk oriented.
I think that the heart of the matter is that ten years ago nobody told us that globalization would be a big deal for China and India, not for USA and Europe.
No free lunch...

Good luck on your trip. I hope you didn't mind me using your travel as an economic example. I think the economic problems that are ahead for the US are going to spread worldwide, unfortunately. Your food price example is a good one--a good chunk of the inflation affecting worldwide food prices is due to the US's insane ethanol program. As to our own economic troubles, it is easy for people here to blame China, OPEC--whatever, but the fact is that we brought all of this coming pain onto ourselves. As was said years ago in the "Pogo" comic strip, "We have found the enemy--and he is us." Or, as my Dad used to say, "There is no beating you have to take that is more painful than the one you paid good money for." That kind of sums up the US economy right now.

[brightdoglover]

Regarding ethanol, aside from the government's view of big business profits, I think people like to picture a few rows of corn behind a Midwest farmhouse, and you drop a couple of ears into the tank, and off you go, and no Saudi Arabia involved. If only.

[Sockeye]

Originally Posted by brightdoglover

Regarding ethanol, aside from the government's view of big business profits, I think people like to picture a few rows of corn behind a Midwest farmhouse, and you drop a couple of ears into the tank, and off you go, and no Saudi Arabia involved. If only.

Biofuels are a joke, really. It will always be a matter of how much arable land-food-you'd be willing to exchange for fuel. Folks like to point out Brazil's energy independence with their sugar cane ethanol program. What they don't want to hear is that they had to cut down a hell of a lot of rainforest to expand their sugar cane farming capacity.
There have been food riots in Mexico recently because of the increase in corn prices. When you look at the worldwide grain picture, you begin to connect the dots.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by Sockeye

Biofuels are a joke, really. It will always be a matter of how much arable land-food-you'd be willing to exchange for fuel. Folks like to point out Brazil's energy independence with their sugar cane ethanol program. What they don't want to hear is that they had to cut down a hell of a lot of rainforest to expand their sugar cane farming capacity.
There have been food riots in Mexico recently because of the increase in corn prices. When you look at the worldwide grain picture, you begin to connect the dots.

Also, any farmer worth his salt will tell you that farmland just "broken out" of native vegetation will be very productive for awhile--as the centuries of stored nutrients are utilized, but then will decline in fertility and productivity as those nutrients are depleted and must be replaced with fertilizers. The Brazilian increase in ag production is likely to be a "bubble' because of that.

Our only real hope for biofuels--and it may be a meager one--is to be able to utilize biomass that is not part of our food chain--algae, etc. Even that may have unforeseen ecological consequences that may not be fun to contemplate. We keep hoping for some "free lunch" that will allow us to continue in our wasteful ways, but it just isn't going to happen. Either we learn to live more efficiently, or some chunk of the human population isn't going to be living at all.

[Bob from down south]

I can't abide by summarily writing off biofuels as a "joke." They are certainly not a short-term panacea for the excesses and shortages that ail us now. But some combination of conservation, societal restructuring, and yes, development of alternative fuels is the most probable way forward.

Biofuels will likely prove to be less of a raw energy input, per se, and more of a medium of convertable portable energy needed for transportation, at least until we wean ourselves of a reliance on internal conbustion propulsion. We can take biomass, apply energy from nonportable means such as solar, hydroelectric, nuclear etc, and produce liquid fuels usable in vehicles.

I think it's especially dangerous to tar and feather biofuels initiatives wholesale, based on our first and not so well guided baby steps driven by the typical Wall Street quarterly bottom line mentality that craves short-term profits.

There are potential gains here, but only in combination with other measures. There are just too many simpletons looking to replace refineries one-for-one with ethanol plants, and judging success or failure based on that goofy concept of success.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by Bob from down south

I can't abide by summarily writing off biofuels as a "joke." They are certainly not a short-term panacea for the excesses and shortages that ail us now. But some combination of conservation, societal restructuring, and yes, development of alternative fuels is the most probable way forward.

Biofuels will likely prove to be less of a raw energy input, per se, and more of a medium of convertable portable energy needed for transportation, at least until we wean ourselves of a reliance on internal conbustion propulsion. We can take biomass, apply energy from nonportable means such as solar, hydroelectric, nuclear etc, and produce liquid fuels usable in vehicles.

I think it's especially dangerous to tar and feather biofuels initiatives wholesale, based on our first and not so well guided baby steps driven by the typical Wall Street quarterly bottom line mentality that craves short-term profits.

There are potential gains here, but only in combination with other measures. There are just too many simpletons looking to replace refineries one-for-one with ethanol plants, and judging success or failure based on that goofy concept of success.

I agree. Where I think the media, business, government, and the general population is off-base is in the thinking that we can just go on with our wasteful ways--only using some different energy source--biofuels, nuclear--whatever. We are going to HAVE TO learn to use whatever energy source we tap much more efficiently than we historically have. That rubs a lot of people--including some posters on this forum--the wrong way because it means that some of their pet habits, lifestyles, and living arrangements are going to have to change. I'm not necessarily fond of the changes that I know I will be making in my lifestyle, but I know that is the way it will have to be. I equate our current energy situation to trying to keep a very leaky bucket full of water. All we seem to be able to concentrate on is finding more water to pour in the top, rather than putting some effort into plugging some of the leaks in the bottom.

[multitrak]

the denver real estate market continues to resist the bubble markets (ca, nv, az, fl, rust belt) downward pressure and probably is close to bottoming out this year. if anything, the denver housing trend is deaccelerating as i had suggested several months ago. the one year change is -5.0% vs -5.5% last month with march/feb change only -0.1% vs feb/jan -1.1%.

http://www.papereconomy.com/CSI.aspx...d=1&showhigh=1

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...ase_052703.pdf

what may help stabilize the denver market is lower crude oil (and hence gasoline) prices near term. peak oil advocate and crude permabull (and new best buds with kunstler) matt simmons recently appeared on cnbc preaching that oil could be trading between $200/bbl and $500/bbl within 2 months to 5 years. one could argue that when the price calls (t-bone pickens $150, gs superspike $200, simmons $500) are increasing in an exponential fashion, the market is getting closer to a peak than a runaway market. my work suggests that the oil market has probably peaked out at $135/bbl and soon will head down to below $100. in addition, lower crude prices will benefit stocks and lower food prices. wheat has retraced 100% of its multi-month move (starting nov 2007) to near $13/bushel and is currently trading below $8. rice is down 20% as well. so things are looking better!

the future is alright!

[multitrak]

10 year performance (open 6/1/98 - close 5/30/2008) for some selected assets (best to worst):

747% crude oil
229% silver
205% gold
168% wheat
71% nasdaq 100
58% denver real estate (case-shiller housing index)
28% s&p 500
-6% 30 year treasury bonds
-27.3% dollar index

note: these figures are not inflation adjusted.

[multitrak]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Our only real hope for biofuels--and it may be a meager one--is to be able to utilize biomass that is not part of our food chain--algae, etc.

especially native switchgrass in the plains states...it doesn't need any extra water from the the ogallala aquifer and grows like a weed on the prairie oklahoma has a test plot in texas county, but it could be easily applicable to colorado.